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Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ... |
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01-30-2013, 11:37 PM | #1 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Use your tools
I would like to show this horse who ran today in the 5th race at LRL
The race was a 5000 claimer for non winners of 2 race lifetime at 7.0 Some issues with thiis horse were If you use the auto select best of last 3 percepture it will select line 3 The problem with line 3 is its a zero pace line, Its also a 7.0 line from Parx Any kind of record keeping from winners at Parx will show you that 7.0 lines are being given too high early pace ratings Look at horse 1 I have highlighted all its EPR (phase 1 ) readouts In all its races we can see that horse 1 runs his EP's in the high 70's low 80's range Now look at the two 7 furlong lines from parx (underlined) see any dfference? You should see this over and over again with any horse from 7.0 lines from Parx This horse was top 3 CSR . Its adjusted speed ratings are consistant in the high 60 to low 70 range but look what those abnormal EPR ratings are doing to the horse's total energy They are much higher than normal for this horse. Now we all know that most of the readouts in RDSS have a good deal of Early Pace in the calculations and Total Energy is a part of BLBL Another tool you should look at is the ability to name your running style by position Those high 7.0 lines are going to give all your EP ratings too high a mark but this horse outside of line 2 is not early at all positionaly Last the APV CR and lifetime records should lead you to look elsewhere the horse is 1-34 yet the crowd bet this horse to .70/1 As it was the horse placed but it took down a lot of money As is usually the case when a badly overbet favorite loses The winner pays boxcars The 8 wins the race |
02-17-2013, 09:48 PM | #2 |
Maiden
Join Date: Feb 2013
Posts: 1
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I agree
The take away from this for me is to select my own pace lines. Granted the auto function is consistent but... the computer on my shoulders is better
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