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04-27-2013, 09:26 AM | #1 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 611
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Saturday 4/27 - - - HAW 2nd
This is a bread and butter claimer from Hawthorne with easily identifiable early runners for anyone who wants to match. All the best to everyone today...
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04-27-2013, 11:53 AM | #2 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 695
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Good Morning Pete...
Thanks for putting up the race.... It looks like we have about 4 early pace runners: 1A) Trickeroy 5) Papasote-3year old versus older 7) Most Distinct 9) Runningout Of Cash-- #9 Runningout of Cash seems to be best of the early and owns the best early fractions from the last paceline. There doesn't seem to be a strong closer in this field. I will give it another look... |
04-27-2013, 12:16 PM | #3 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Tempe, Arizona
Posts: 600
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The 8 Bogie Man Joe is scratched
The 8 Bogie Man Joe is scratched
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04-27-2013, 12:51 PM | #4 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 611
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Good morning Lone Speed-
I see it pretty much the same way. I have the 7 and 9 as the two best early and I feel that one of them will win. It is tough for me to separate those two. I also agree that the closers do not figure to make up enough ground late. |
04-27-2013, 12:52 PM | #5 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Tempe, Arizona
Posts: 600
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Nice Race Pete. Thanks for putting it up.
You're right. There is a lot of early speed here. I don't think anyone will get the lead from the 9. Other earlies are the 5,6, and 7. I will toss those three. I think the pace will go 22.2 in the first quarter with the 9 in the lead. The 1 and 3 are slow. The 10 will try and pass everyone in the field. I'll toss those three. I'm left with the 4 and the 9. The 9 is a need to lead type who needs a 2.5L lead against a 22.3. I don't think he'll get it. I'm going to ignore the maiden win against a 21.3. This leaves me with the 4 who ran credibly off a layoff, has won against a 21.4 from the fifth position, and won from the 2nd position against a 22.2 in his maiden. The 4 is my choice. Good Luck. Tim
__________________
Tim Don't look back. You're not going that way. |
04-27-2013, 01:52 PM | #6 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 695
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quick match-up analysis:
I narrowed the race down to two horses; the #1A Trickeroy over the #9 Runningout Of Cash. There are quite a few speed types in this match-up but there are no strong closers. The best closer scratched out of this race. Good skills |
04-27-2013, 03:27 PM | #7 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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winner
Good call on the Tim
I was not sure about this race I thought the 9 looked good here is the winner |
04-27-2013, 04:37 PM | #8 |
Happy Punting
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Toronto, Ontario
Posts: 485
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CapCondo - Nice Job
Tim,
Nice pickin in the 2nd at HAWTHORNE today. Good Punting!! |
04-27-2013, 10:42 PM | #9 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 611
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Tim nails it!!!! Nice job man....
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04-30-2013, 02:35 PM | #10 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Tempe, Arizona
Posts: 600
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FPLR and Tandem
I didn't see it in this race when I matched it. But when the FPLR (fastest pace last race) is also a tandem, the winner frequently comes out of that race.
In this race, the 4 and the 6 were both out of the FPLR. As well, they both maintained or improved their position from the 1st to the 2nd call which is a positive sign. The exacta 4 and 6 paid $97.00 on a $2 bet. I don't ever play exactas so I wouldn't have had this one. The 6 was 21/1 in the win pool. Like anything, this doesn't work every time; nothing does. But it's worth watching for. Tim
__________________
Tim Don't look back. You're not going that way. |
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