Racetracks - Page 2 - Pace and Cap

Bill V. · 08-03-2013, 01:14 PM

You folks (I almost typed guys )

You all give great advice

I think Barb said it well, that is to look around, but have 1 track were you have a model.

I have my total focus on Parx They run all year and they run a good mix of
4 sprint and 3 route distances. I look at and model every race every day from Parx.
I then will look at other tracks for their higher class races, Stakes and handicaps are races I seem to do well at
so I look at them all.

Bill

Lt1 · 08-03-2013, 01:49 PM

Parx has always been a good trk to play. I have done very well there. It also gives me the most races to play since they card very few mdn and turf races daily compared to NY. Finger Lakes is also very good for playable since they have no turf racing.

dirty moose · 08-03-2013, 03:09 PM

I just started capping in the spring so I was playing Belmont. After LT1 starting teaching me, I avoid Belmont like the plague lol. I think the track with the least amount of variables is the track to play. So for me; Parx, Finger Lakes and Mountaineer. FL only has one surface, makes for great model keeping. Parx and Mnr have few turf races so this also makes for better model keeping

NYRA tracks have 3 different surfaces and too many MND races.

Rverge · 08-03-2013, 07:05 PM

during the DMR and SAR meet i will play these tracks as both are "dime a day" tracks "bet $10.00 WPS on a selection, 1 bet each track each day" and if the horse wins and the pay out is the tops for the day, and you are the only "high payout" then you win $1000.00 along w/ your winnings. so far though i've hit twice at DMR but alas had to share it w/ 9 and 16. $62.50 the second hit.

For The Lead · 08-03-2013, 07:35 PM

Penn National has also been left out. Another year around track. They are just a short ride down I-80 from PARX, so there are many trainers that ship back and forth between those two tracks.

Lt1 · 08-03-2013, 09:44 PM

Hey FTL and Bill I've noticed that very few horses shipping from Penn to Parx win with the exception of horses from the Beattie clan. How do Parx shippers do AT pENN

For The Lead · 08-04-2013, 04:41 AM

Overall, horses shipping from PRX to PEN fair better then horses shipping from PEN to PRX.
If you were classifying tracks, PRX would be a notch above PEN.

Lt1 · 08-04-2013, 11:51 AM

Thanks FTL

Segwin · 08-04-2013, 02:28 PM

I am not familiar with the modeling process. What steps are involved in modeling (and why)?

Bill V. · 08-04-2013, 02:52 PM

These are the factors I model for Parx - I do this for every race every day

1 Date
2 Race #
3 Distance
4 Surface
5 Race Type example Cl 7.5 N2-L
6 Age - Sex
Then I record these factors from the pace line I used for the winning horse
1 Early Late readout
2. Primary Line score
3. Supp Line score
4. Total Energy rank
5.BLBL Line score
6. BLBL rank
7. VDC rank
8. POR rank
9. Total Pace rank
10 The Morning line of the horses I bet
11. The final odds of the winner
12 The final odds of the two horses I bet
13 My Results Win Loss
14 The winner
15 The winners payout
16 Notes about the race Example - Pass only 1 horse had a usable paceline
17 The Winners APV
18 The winners win percentage
19. my profit /loss for the race
It all looks like this
Here is race 1 today from Parx

8/4/13 1 D 6 MC 10 3 + F 17 7 4 1 24.5 1 1 1 1 0.00 0.00 1.60 0.00 0.00 N 0 Pass only 1 horse had a usable pace line ( why not maidens ) 51 0-4 0

08-03-2013, 01:14 PM	#11
Bill V. The egg man Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: Carlsbad, California Posts: 10,005	Barb You folks (I almost typed guys ) You all give great advice I think Barb said it well, that is to look around, but have 1 track were you have a model. I have my total focus on Parx They run all year and they run a good mix of 4 sprint and 3 route distances. I look at and model every race every day from Parx. I then will look at other tracks for their higher class races, Stakes and handicaps are races I seem to do well at so I look at them all. Bill

08-03-2013, 07:05 PM	#14
Rverge Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: pittsburgh, now! Lancaster, CA. Posts: 2,531	during the DMR and SAR meet i will play these tracks as both are "dime a day" tracks "bet $10.00 WPS on a selection, 1 bet each track each day" and if the horse wins and the pay out is the tops for the day, and you are the only "high payout" then you win $1000.00 along w/ your winnings. so far though i've hit twice at DMR but alas had to share it w/ 9 and 16. $62.50 the second hit. __________________ i love every single minute of life, and, if one is lucky,then you must give it to others.

08-03-2013, 07:35 PM	#15
For The Lead Grade 1 Join Date: Nov 2008 Posts: 1,292	Penn National has also been left out. Another year around track. They are just a short ride down I-80 from PARX, so there are many trainers that ship back and forth between those two tracks. __________________ "It's suppose to be hard. If it was easy, everybody would do it." Jimmy Dugan, A League of Their Own

08-04-2013, 04:41 AM	#17
For The Lead Grade 1 Join Date: Nov 2008 Posts: 1,292	Overall, horses shipping from PRX to PEN fair better then horses shipping from PEN to PRX. If you were classifying tracks, PRX would be a notch above PEN. __________________ "It's suppose to be hard. If it was easy, everybody would do it." Jimmy Dugan, A League of Their Own

08-04-2013, 02:28 PM	#19
Segwin Grade 1 Join Date: Jul 2013 Location: Cleveland, Ohio Posts: 624	I am not familiar with the modeling process. What steps are involved in modeling (and why)? __________________ Terry

08-03-2013, 01:49 PM	#12
Lt1 Grade 1 Join Date: Apr 2012 Location: Valley Stream NY Posts: 11,515	Parx has always been a good trk to play. I have done very well there. It also gives me the most races to play since they card very few mdn and turf races daily compared to NY. Finger Lakes is also very good for playable since they have no turf racing.

08-03-2013, 03:09 PM	#13
dirty moose Grade 1 Join Date: May 2013 Location: NY Posts: 485	I just started capping in the spring so I was playing Belmont. After LT1 starting teaching me, I avoid Belmont like the plague lol. I think the track with the least amount of variables is the track to play. So for me; Parx, Finger Lakes and Mountaineer. FL only has one surface, makes for great model keeping. Parx and Mnr have few turf races so this also makes for better model keeping NYRA tracks have 3 different surfaces and too many MND races.

08-03-2013, 09:44 PM	#16
Lt1 Grade 1 Join Date: Apr 2012 Location: Valley Stream NY Posts: 11,515	Hey FTL and Bill I've noticed that very few horses shipping from Penn to Parx win with the exception of horses from the Beattie clan. How do Parx shippers do AT pENN

08-04-2013, 11:51 AM	#18
Lt1 Grade 1 Join Date: Apr 2012 Location: Valley Stream NY Posts: 11,515	Thanks FTL

08-04-2013, 02:52 PM	#20
Bill V. The egg man Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: Carlsbad, California Posts: 10,005	What I model These are the factors I model for Parx - I do this for every race every day 1 Date 2 Race # 3 Distance 4 Surface 5 Race Type example Cl 7.5 N2-L 6 Age - Sex Then I record these factors from the pace line I used for the winning horse 1 Early Late readout 2. Primary Line score 3. Supp Line score 4. Total Energy rank 5.BLBL Line score 6. BLBL rank 7. VDC rank 8. POR rank 9. Total Pace rank 10 The Morning line of the horses I bet 11. The final odds of the winner 12 The final odds of the two horses I bet 13 My Results Win Loss 14 The winner 15 The winners payout 16 Notes about the race Example - Pass only 1 horse had a usable paceline 17 The Winners APV 18 The winners win percentage 19. my profit /loss for the race It all looks like this Here is race 1 today from Parx 8/4/13 1 D 6 MC 10 3 + F 17 7 4 1 24.5 1 1 1 1 0.00 0.00 1.60 0.00 0.00 N 0 Pass only 1 horse had a usable pace line ( why not maidens ) 51 0-4 0

Similar Threads
Thread	Thread Starter	Forum	Replies	Last Post
Ontario Racing Update	Ted Craven	General Discussion	5	01-24-2013 11:16 PM
State of Texas Horse Racing	noddub62	General Discussion	0	09-18-2012 03:22 PM