Contender Selection - One Way Pt 1 of 3

[Because I Can Jim]

Hi Terry,

Thanks for the words Terry. Feel free to make suggestions on topics, etc... All input is welcome.

[DaveEdwards]

Hi Jim,

I really enjoyed watching your videos. I didn't think you were monotone at all!

Where I got the most out of it was your approach with the segments screen. Linking your perception of the running style of each horse to the segments. You could feel the tension building up to the 5 being eliminated, being an E runner that was highly unlikely to get it's running position. I think I must have felt like one of your students, wanting to interrupt & give the answer as you were building up to it!

This is something I've done occasionally, but will do every race from now one. Every tick of the probability eliminated is a step nearer to the winners enclosure.

Thanks for taking the time to do this.

[Segwin]

In the second movie you were picking the fulcrum horse, Fake Personality, and on his last line the 2nd call was 47.3. Since he was beaten by one length in the 2nd call you add 2/5 to the 2nd call to make it 47.5.

Is there a chart that determines how many 5ths are added for each beaten length (or is it just 2/5 for each beaten length)?

[trotman]

Jim,
Good luck to you, for 40 years plus this game still on occasion twists my boxers. The more I listen to handicappers in general place their thumb on the bet button with all their models and idea's, all I can think is good luck, the game is random just like the expiry date on each and every one of us. Nice job in what you have sorted out and the effort should be noticed.

[Because I Can Jim]

Hi Terry,

Thanks for the post!

The learned the concept of the fulcrum pace and fulcrum horse from the chapter in the first edition of the book "Pace Makes The Race" by Michael Pizzolla and also from his other book "Handicapping Magic."

Basically, the idea is to project a pace of race. When you are using a paceline that had the horse first at the 2C, that POR time is the same as the POH which is easy enough. When you are using a line for the fulcrum that does not have the horse on the lead, then you are "adjusting" the fulcrum time by taking the POR time and adding in the beaten lengths of the horse.

So, as an example, if we are using a line that has a 46.1 POR and the horse is 1 beaten length off the pace, you are adjusting the POR to account for the beaten lengths. The POR times are in 10ths of a second. The beaten lengths are in lengths.

Beaten lengths have been equated to 1/5th of a second. (As a quick aside, how long is a beaten length? Hard to tell. Different horses are different lengths and when they are moving/running it is even more difficult to tell how much a beaten length equates to. Howard Sartin settled on one beaten length as 1/5th of a second which is just as good as any other time measurement because it is all relative.)

So, in our example, one beaten length is 1/5th of a second. However, the POR times are in 10ths of a second. So you have to double it. (1/5th = 0.2 tenths) We add the 46.1 and 0.2 to get 46.3 for our fulcrum time. (If the beaten lengths were 3, then I would add 0.6 to the 46.1 and get 46.7.)

Remember, I am using the fulcrum to setup a way of thinking about the race. If a horse cannot compete at that time (we know the horse we have taken it from can) out it goes as a non-contender.

Also, when selecting a paceline for the fulcrum horse, you are not "locked into" the fulcrum paceline. These are two separate concepts although intimately related and most of the time I will use the fulcrum line as the paceline for the fulcrum horse. But, that does not mean that I would not go past that last line just like I would when selecting a paceline for any other horse.

Hope that helps you.

Also Terry, I saw your question about running styles in the thread from Bill. He provided you with the Running Styles section from Jim Bradshaw's 5 step process.

I was thninking about making a video or two about running styles and maybee even doing it as an example when I handicap a race. I have been very busy lately and have it sitting in the back of my mind. If you have any other questions about it that you might want me to address, I will see what I can come up with. Just post them as a quick reply to this thread.

Best of luck,

Jim

[Because I Can Jim]

Hi trotman, (I am sorry I don't know your name. I am actually creating a list for myself to know who everyone is. Your name is very important.)

Your kind words are much appreciated.

It is dfficult to think about the methodology because it is so diverse.

I just hope that I am getting it right!!!! LOL

Jim

[Bill V.]

Hi Jim

First off good job getting this winner yesterday at MNR in race 9

I wonder why you set the fulcrum POR so slow at 116.6



If I was to set a POR I would use Jim Bradshaw's method of finding a horse that
was truly on the lead in its recent races
( I've used the fulcrum method ) but I found that often the horses I was using
were not producing a accurate POR. But If I had a E8 or E7 running style
horse who was on the lead at the same track and distance in a recent line
It was much more accurate

Look at your winner I suppose you did not use its last line
as the fulcrum because it faded to finish 11 back.
But looking at this E7 runner and its previous running lines, beside line 5
when it ran as fast as it needed to ,and still went wire to wire with a 116
I don't see the POR in this race being 116.6. because of the 7



It actually ran just fast enough to stay ahead of the 7 horse with a 115.5
POR and the 7 just won going 115.5

[lone speed]

Originally Posted by Bill V.

Hi Jim

First off good job getting this winner yesterday at MNR in race 9

I wonder why you set the fulcrum POR so slow at 116.6

Attachment 35426

If I was to set a POR I would use Jim Bradshaw's method of finding a horse that
was truly on the lead in its recent races
( I've used the fulcrum method ) but I found that often the horses I was using
were not producing a accurate POR. But If I had a E8 or E7 running style
horse who was on the lead at the same track and distance in a recent line
It was much more accurate

Look at your winner I suppose you did not use its last line
as the fulcrum because it faded to finish 11 back.
But looking at this E7 runner and its previous running lines, beside line 5
when it ran as fast as it needed to ,and still went wire to wire with a 116
I don't see the POR in this race being 116.6. because of the 7

Attachment 35429

It actually ran just fast enough to stay ahead of the 7 horse with a 115.5
POR and the 7 just won going 115.5

Attachment 35427

First off...I want to reiterate that I do not get most races but I am content that I can get my fair share of "gettable" races...

I agreed with Bill V..about the last paceline from the winner Power...

From Jim's readouts, I would have been "chomping at the bit" because we have a lone early speed in this match up...BUT Also!!!

Let's dig deeper and ask who also has faced the best 3rd fraction...it is an "optical illusion" but even though Power faded 11 lengths in the stretch run, he still faced the fastest 3rd fraction....the other horse is the #3 horse who lost about 7 lengths in the 3rd fraction but against a slower pace of race than Power.

So a quick overview of what I would zoom in on...

Who has:

Which horse comes out of the fastest pace of race last race?

Which horse comes out of the fastest 3rd fractions?

If a lone early speed can control the early pace of today's matchup and also comes out of the fastest 3rd fraction last race. I would consider this horse a double edge horse....

It has the best early speed and also has the best late speed....What more can we ask for. As Bill stated, he will run only as fast as needed while conserving energy for the stretch run where he also has the best 3rd fraction.

I learned from Thormation that the program favors the best early speed horse and the horse that comes out of a big 3rd fraction race.

I was dubious at first but after working many races and seeing horses coming out of strong 3rd fraction races while they faded. I became a believer.

Nice win Jim..

[Because I Can Jim]

Hey guys,

Not ignoring anyone here.

I was planning on making a video in response to Bill and lone star. They make very good points. Just really busy and going on another trip in 5 minutes.

You know you are a handicapper because it irks you to miss a racing card!!!!

Will catch up when I can in a bit.