Parx 8/25 live

[dirty moose]

You'd have to go back to line 6 to get the 9 at the top of RDSS.

[Because I Can Jim]

Matt,

Thoughts on this race

Jim

[Lt1]

Matt did you read your screen notes on exactas.

[dirty moose]

Yea I did lol. It was a good time to take a shot tho.

[dirty moose]

Hey Jim. D/l you video now.

[dirty moose]

Good video Jim. I think this race is the perfect example race to use when teaching. It's a race I will defiantly keep in the back of my head for a long time to come. This is why I think handicapping is the best way to learn. Working the races.

On that note I'm making dinner too lol. But i'll be ready for some MNR tonight. Hopefully you'll be around.

[dirty moose]

We should sticky this race and use it to teach. It's the perfect race to use.

[Because I Can Jim]

Yes. It is a pretty good race. Keep it for reference.

I am making plans with others on creating a set of videos to teach concepts/ideas. This thinking about the race we already have another race tagged for showing the ideas.

Best of luck,
Jim

[Segwin]

Thanks for another helpful video Jim - appreciate it.

[For The Lead]

I once asked a person on this board why he thought every race he posted was going to run “other than early”. His answer was short, to the point and truthful. He said, “because I don’t know how to pick early”.

Now let’s look at a quote from Tom Brohamer, which I posted elsewhere recently.
"The trickiest piece of the pace scenario is the analysis of Early Pace. MOST RACES ARE WON ON OR NEAR THE LEAD".

People think because they see more than one early type in a race that all the early types are going to come out of the gate and run head to head and nose to nose until they all quit, because they think all the early types are capable of running identical early fractions. Well, it just don’t happen that way. Even in races that are loaded with early types, most often, an early type will win. Something to keep in mind is, horses are not machines, therefore, they will not do what we expect them to do every time they run. Sure, once in a while a late horse will close and win, but then, in horse racing…everything happens once in a while.

In the race being discussed here, the 8th at PARX on 8.25.13, I don’t think anyone would dispute that the numbers 3,4,5 and 8 are all early type horses, with the #2 being an early presser. So let’s see how the race actually ran. These are the PP lines for this race that you will see for each horse the next time these horses run.



At the first call the #3 has the lead and its’ closest pursuer is the “EP”, #2. So where are all the early types? They have been relegated to just being “chasers” and will have no impact on the race. The #3 did what any early horse in a field that has several early types should do, make the lead at all costs. An early horse that can’t make the lead generally doesn’t win. So what happened to the “speed duel”? As is usually the case, what handicappers think will happen, doesn’t.

Here are the times for this race.



AS you can see, the opening ¼ of a mile went in 21.56
The second ¼ of a mile went in 22.57
The last ¼ of a mile went in 25.95…almost a full 26 seconds.

More to come.......