One thing that worked today - Pace and Cap

Mark · 11-02-2013, 10:47 AM

Bill,
I would not recommend anyone rely on this type of postmortem analysis of one day of racing. I can't subscribe to a theory that Santa Anita track maintanence personnel souped up the track in any fashion that might endanger the health of these horses when the races are broadcast around the world for all to see. Fast surfaces indicate hard surfaces and those lead to breakdowns.
While I don't know exactly what the Energy Screen factors are comprised of, it appears to me after about 9 months experience with RDSS2 that those particular factors have a great deal of the Pace of Race involved in their makeup. So you would expect winners and ITM horses to come from Graded and Stakes events that were fast.
Additionally, I have seen severely biased tracks, much more common 20 or more years ago. The results were consistent and unpredictable. More Pressing horses won yesterday than can be explained by a speed bias. Sustained horses are most often just slower animals and only win when the front end collapses or sever early contention tires the faster horses prematurely.
You have horses coming from many tracks, surfaces and distances in these races. Some do not have usable pacelines as they come from overseas. What we saw is the best horseflesh in the world brought to peak condition by very skillful trainers and when matched up the best horses won.
Today I would not approach these races with any preconception about surface speed. I would recommend that everyone handicap the races as they would normally. Better yet, enjoy the pagentry and beauty and save the wagering for tracks that you handicap on a daily basis.
One man's opinion.

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11-02-2013, 10:47 AM	#5
Mark Grade 1 Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 318	Bill, I would not recommend anyone rely on this type of postmortem analysis of one day of racing. I can't subscribe to a theory that Santa Anita track maintanence personnel souped up the track in any fashion that might endanger the health of these horses when the races are broadcast around the world for all to see. Fast surfaces indicate hard surfaces and those lead to breakdowns. While I don't know exactly what the Energy Screen factors are comprised of, it appears to me after about 9 months experience with RDSS2 that those particular factors have a great deal of the Pace of Race involved in their makeup. So you would expect winners and ITM horses to come from Graded and Stakes events that were fast. Additionally, I have seen severely biased tracks, much more common 20 or more years ago. The results were consistent and unpredictable. More Pressing horses won yesterday than can be explained by a speed bias. Sustained horses are most often just slower animals and only win when the front end collapses or sever early contention tires the faster horses prematurely. You have horses coming from many tracks, surfaces and distances in these races. Some do not have usable pacelines as they come from overseas. What we saw is the best horseflesh in the world brought to peak condition by very skillful trainers and when matched up the best horses won. Today I would not approach these races with any preconception about surface speed. I would recommend that everyone handicap the races as they would normally. Better yet, enjoy the pagentry and beauty and save the wagering for tracks that you handicap on a daily basis. One man's opinion.