Paceline Selection / Adjusted Speed Rating Query

[Bill V.]

Hi Mark
The way I project the pace of race is to use Micheal Pizzolla's Fulcrum method
from Pace Makes The Race pg. 102

Just by looking at your CD race The only horse that qualifies
off the last pace line are horses 4 and 10

The fulcrum method is to only use the last line
The fulcrum must come from the same track as surface
The horse must be with 5 lengths at both the second call and the finish
The pace is not atypicaal for that horse

The only horse who qualify are the 4 and 10
I think CD is a 1 turn mile
so I will use horse 4 and set the pace at 46.4

Now I just need to see if 46.4 is atypically fact for this horse
Then I would look to see if any horse can run a plus pace line against a 46.4.

In the race from Parx that Terry and I wer discussing there is no Fulcrum horse, therefore the race is pace less and As Micheal Pizzolla writes" When there is no fulcrum pace of race very often the TPR numbers do an exceptional job," They did here getting pointing to a $17.00 winner

Bill