"I've Got That Lovin' Feeling" - Pace and Cap

Appy · 12-30-2013, 12:47 PM

Remember that old song, "I've Got That Lovin' Feeling"? Great song. But what's it got to do with handicapping a horse race?
Failure to pull the trigger and make the bet. That problem has been costing me a LOT of money lately. It is money I have earned by good handicapping, then failed to collect by not making the bet. I think it is probably a lack of confidence. Failing to make the bet is the same thing as doing the work but forgetting to send the bill!
I think the cure for lack of confidence is thorough testing while paper trading. The selection process that proves profitable over time will build the confidence necessary to make the bet when using real money. But I think there is more to it than that, and that's where the song "I've Got That Lovin' Feeling" comes in.
When I do due diligence working a race to completion, going through every step from Matchup to selecting my wagers, I SOMETIMES just KNOW I've got it pegged. I know because I get "that feeling". Doesn't happen as often as I'd like, but I sure know it when it does. It's a feeling of pure satisfaction.
I blame the use of software for not getting "that feeling" more often. Lots of folks have given me the advice to "trust your readouts". But trusting the readouts seems to me like a black box setup. I don't think a black box setup will ever produce "that feeling" because you don't see and feel what is happening to produce those readouts. You just click a few tabs and read the bottom line. The software is a HUGE time saver and I get that (it's the biggest reason I wanted a software to use), but if you ignore the process and just look at the readouts I think you will never get "that feelin' " that gives you the confidence to make the bet.

How do YOU get "that feelin' ", or do you even think you need it?

borodin · 12-30-2013, 03:18 PM

The first question you want to ask is "How often have I known the horse would win before the race was run, and the horse didn't win?" If you pass a race, it's human nature to remember the ones that got away and dismiss the losers.

In my opinion, there are no black boxes. Some work has to be done.

Segwin · 12-30-2013, 04:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by borodin

it's human nature to remember the ones that got away and dismiss the losers.

Very true.

Shoulda, woulda coulda.

atkinsrr · 12-30-2013, 08:48 PM

Appy..I have had the same problem from time to time..and it seems that we as humans sometimes cannot keep that momentum and focus at a peak. That is why I get back into the Follow-Ups and read. Read the following articles:
Follow-Up #72 pages 9-16 and Follow-Up #73 pages 23-28. Keep these by the bed and read them right before you go to bed and in the morning when you get up. Do this for a long period of time if needed, I sure do.....

12-30-2013, 12:47 PM	#1
Appy Grade 1 Join Date: Jul 2013 Location: Flint Hills in Kansas, formerly from Montana Posts: 334	"I've Got That Lovin' Feeling" Remember that old song, "I've Got That Lovin' Feeling"? Great song. But what's it got to do with handicapping a horse race? Failure to pull the trigger and make the bet. That problem has been costing me a LOT of money lately. It is money I have earned by good handicapping, then failed to collect by not making the bet. I think it is probably a lack of confidence. Failing to make the bet is the same thing as doing the work but forgetting to send the bill! I think the cure for lack of confidence is thorough testing while paper trading. The selection process that proves profitable over time will build the confidence necessary to make the bet when using real money. But I think there is more to it than that, and that's where the song "I've Got That Lovin' Feeling" comes in. When I do due diligence working a race to completion, going through every step from Matchup to selecting my wagers, I SOMETIMES just KNOW I've got it pegged. I know because I get "that feeling". Doesn't happen as often as I'd like, but I sure know it when it does. It's a feeling of pure satisfaction. I blame the use of software for not getting "that feeling" more often. Lots of folks have given me the advice to "trust your readouts". But trusting the readouts seems to me like a black box setup. I don't think a black box setup will ever produce "that feeling" because you don't see and feel what is happening to produce those readouts. You just click a few tabs and read the bottom line. The software is a HUGE time saver and I get that (it's the biggest reason I wanted a software to use), but if you ignore the process and just look at the readouts I think you will never get "that feelin' " that gives you the confidence to make the bet. How do YOU get "that feelin' ", or do you even think you need it? __________________ Serious fun. www.cappersoverlay.com

12-30-2013, 03:18 PM	#2
borodin AlwNW1X Join Date: Dec 2013 Posts: 18	The first question you want to ask is "How often have I known the horse would win before the race was run, and the horse didn't win?" If you pass a race, it's human nature to remember the ones that got away and dismiss the losers. In my opinion, there are no black boxes. Some work has to be done.

12-30-2013, 08:48 PM	#4
atkinsrr Grade 1 Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 507	Appy..I have had the same problem from time to time..and it seems that we as humans sometimes cannot keep that momentum and focus at a peak. That is why I get back into the Follow-Ups and read. Read the following articles: Follow-Up #72 pages 9-16 and Follow-Up #73 pages 23-28. Keep these by the bed and read them right before you go to bed and in the morning when you get up. Do this for a long period of time if needed, I sure do.....