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08-06-2014, 03:05 PM | #1 |
AlwNW3X
Join Date: Jun 2013
Location: St Paul, MN
Posts: 37
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Understanding RDSS to its Fullest
Hi All
Been 1 year now since I joined Pace and Cap and used RDSS and need to get some opinions. First though allow me to outline my year. First and foremost Ted is a true scholar and gentleman. Dude went out of his way to introduce me to the product and get me started in the right direction. That included phone calls and Skype time. I started by learning about profiles and money management and creating a number of spreadsheets. I then went out on my own with what I learned and did some light betting. What I found out was RDSS definitely made me better. But after a year I have rethought my approach. I believe I was looking at it in too simplified and generic a manner. I was looking at individual columns and highest rankings and such and was getting lost in that thinking. So I took a break and am currently taking another direction. See a lot of you people are familiar with these programs from the beginning or around that timeframe. That means around 1990 and forward a lot of these programs were delved into and then incorporated into RDSS. I need to get my head back into that time frame and go forward. So I started reading posts beginning in 2008 (I think that’s as far back as it goes) to see what was working for people. From there I want to delve in even further and find out what makes those things tick. What I am finding out are 2 programs that stood out. ENERGY and SPEC. I also found a poster – Tim Y – who has a great grasp of the tools and is very smart. He liked to look at Total Energy, % Median and E/L for a horse in PP’s to find if the horse was improving or regressing. I like that approach it fits what I am comfortable with. I have improved myself finding a horses running style, noting the pace of the upcoming race and choosing contenders. I want to be able to now get a complete understanding of energy and early late pace and incorporate that into today’s pace. So here is what I am asking. 1- Are ENERGY and SPEC indeed great programs to start my understanding? Are there manuals or docs available (maybe on this site) that cover these programs? Tim Y would post sample screens when he explained a race. That’s great for those who have used the program but no so much for me. 2- Ted in RDSS where specifically are ENERGY and SPEC covered? A lot of posters came to the conclusion to not use all the tools and programs but to find what works for you and stick with it. RDSS is all encompassing so if I could concentrate on parts and get to know them that would be ideal. Thanks to all. |
08-06-2014, 07:39 PM | #2 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Dec 2011
Location: Woodbine
Posts: 761
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NFS
The first thing i do before i start handicapping is i open up the “Primary” screen and look at the “Total Energy #”. Take the highest “Total Energy” rating for each horse in the last calendar year at a similar distance and surface as today’s race. Write down the horses that have produced the highest “Total Energy” number, then move to the “Workouts” Tab. Look for horses that have produced a 90 speed rating or more in recent works, and write down those horses underneath the “Total Energy” horses. If you have a horse that has a top “Energy” rating as well as a good workout, you have yourself a live horse. This doesn’t work 100% of the time, and it varies between tracks, but it will give you a good indication of what to expect before you start handicapping. I will give you a couple of examples..... Today at Saratoga (Aug 6) in the 8th race. I found 3 horses in this race that put up the best “Total Energy” rating. 2 = 167.5 (second line) 8 = 167.2 (third line) 10 = 167.2 (Last line) I now look at the workouts, and there were two horses in the race that put up a clocker. 2 = had two blazing works 1.11 @ 6F with a 110 speed rating (last work), 59.4 @ 5F with a 98 speed rating (second last work. 7 = 1.00 @ 5F with a 93 speed rating (second last work) Now, if we compare the two lists, the 2 is the lone standout, it is a top rated horse with two killer works. Obviously you have to do your handicapping because there are a 100 other variables that goes into the process, but you will see a lot of production from this angle. |
08-06-2014, 07:45 PM | #3 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Dec 2011
Location: Woodbine
Posts: 761
|
Saratoga Aug 6 Race 5
Total Energy = 11-4-3 Clocker = 1-2-4-10 |
08-06-2014, 07:50 PM | #4 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Dec 2011
Location: Woodbine
Posts: 761
|
Saratoga Aug 6 Race 10
Total Energy = 2-3 Clocker = 1 |
08-06-2014, 09:14 PM | #5 |
AlwNW3X
Join Date: Jun 2013
Location: St Paul, MN
Posts: 37
|
Thanks Hoof! Total Energy is off to a good start in this thread. I want to try your method out with my contenders and see what I come up with.
In the meantime I have a great thought - books! What can you guys offer up that covers Total Energy? Here are 2 people have given thumbs up. HANDICAPPING SPEED :A critical look at the science of speed handicapping by Charles Carroll Calibration Handicapping by Jim Lehane I already have Pace Makes The Race by Sartin & Company. I will be rereading that soon. |
08-06-2014, 11:19 PM | #6 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: New-York, NY
Posts: 129
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NeedForSpeed,
Calibration Handicapping is a great book. However, it will not teach you anything about Total Energy. For that purpose, and more in-depth analysis of horse races, the only book I would recommend is: Modern Pace Handicapping, by Tom Brohamer. This book is sub-titled "Advanced treatment of Pace Analysis". It is to be considered as a reference book, meaning that you have to read it over, and over, and over. It is not an easy read. But once you understand it, you'll be on your way. As far as the older programs that you mentioned, I did not start with them, and I don't think either one of them would benefit you more than RDSS. Handicapping a horse race is a puzzle that you are trying to solve, and RDSS gives you all the pieces. But you have to be able to put them together. There are many of them. You ignore one, and you lose. As Hoof pointed out to you, form is extremely important in your analysis. I could also add: pace, speed, class and running style. You have to understand them all to solve the puzzzle. As an example, the horse with the best speed figure may not be able to win the race today, simply because the pace is too fast for that horse, or its running style is not favorable for this race. Another common scenario is when the horses with the best pace figures finish third or fourth because of a pace duel. You have to be able to figure out when a pace duel is likely to happen. Total Energy is a good place to start, and is "the most consistent winner producer", according to "Pace Makes The Race". However, in the book, it is referred to as "Average Pace".
__________________
Paul |
08-07-2014, 12:41 PM | #7 |
AlwNW3X
Join Date: Jun 2013
Location: St Paul, MN
Posts: 37
|
Hi Paul
Well we have the same name so thats a good start. Thanks for the heads up on books. I will look into the Brohamer book. I do have Pace Makes the Race and I think he writes in that so if Modern Pace dives into greater detail then thats the book for me. With RDSS I am in agreement 100%. But for me its like handing over a 747 to a 13 year old to fly. Its powerful with a gazillion instruments and readings. For me the end result is going to be crash and burn. I have to get my hands around everything and learn some of the basics. I want to zero in on total energy. Like Sartin said confidence and do it the way that you are comfortable with is key. So as you state - form is extremely important in your analysis. I could also add: pace, speed, class and running style - we are both looking at it in the exact same way! Those are what I want to master. I like the idea of going back in time. I'll even read all the followups if I have to. A lot of old posts have given me ideas also. Thanks again Paul. You and Hoof have given me something I can really use! |
08-07-2014, 01:29 PM | #8 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Dec 2011
Location: Woodbine
Posts: 761
|
Saratoga Aug 7/14
Race 2 TE = 4-5 CL = 3-4 Race 3 TE = 6 CL = 2 Race 4 TE = 1-4-5 Race 5 TE = 10-3 CL = 6 Race 6 TE = 7 Race 7 TE = 6-9-10 Race 8 TE = 2-3-4-9 CL = 7-8-9 Race 9 TE = 8-5-7 CL = 1-8-3-9 Race 10 TE = 3-4 CL = 1-2-4-6-7 |
08-07-2014, 03:57 PM | #9 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: New-York, NY
Posts: 129
|
It's according to Brohamer, in "Modern Pace Handicapping"
__________________
Paul |
08-07-2014, 04:07 PM | #10 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: New-York, NY
Posts: 129
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Hoof, great job at Saratoga today. Your post confirms what I always believed, which is that 80% of the winners come from the top 3 TE.
__________________
Paul |
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