1st call, 2nd call?

[mowens33]

Paul, good to see you posting, and thanks for the sound advice!

Richie, thanks for posting! I've read most of your threads on the match-up and it has helped my handicapping tremendously!!

I hope you continue to chime in now and then to spread Mr. Bradshaw’s (The Hat) teaching which obviously has rubbed off on you!!!

Thanks again, Mike

[Bill Lyster]

Originally Posted by RichieP

"Rich you can either match raw or use this adjustment chart ok? What is important is picking ONE way and sticking with it consistently." - Jim Bradshaw in one of our first teaching sessions together in 2006

Hi everyone,
I put that quote up to show that there is more than one way to skin the cat. The Hat understood and told me this. So first call, second call etc it's all good if it works for you.

I would call Jim many times at night, he'd be watching replays and he would tell me often "Rich I am just watching them run. Watch the break, where they are, look at their heads (are they looking around like they are confused or in position not accustomed to in the "heard" or "pack"). Remember Rich they are pack animals with dominants , mid pack and trailing runners. Many horses will give up completely when they are not or can not get to that comfortable place or zone in the herd. Others will "fight" like hell to get where they want to be, look other horses in the eye and intimidate or "boss" them around."

Hat always started as far left on the pp line as possible ( break, 1c, 2c, sc) NEVER working a race past the stretch call with me. Never. One of his gifts was that he could see that pack or herd instinct from the pps, studying the line and seeing the animal what it was doing and if it was comfortable doing it.

He also taught me that when working route races with horses from different tracks to focus on the FIRST FRACTION, both pace of race and positioning. There is a whole thread in the Hat Check about that so it should be very clear the huge priority that Jim put on analyzing first fractions and break positioning.

Jim's Matchup Concepts live on through all of you taking the time to contribute to this Forum. He HAS to be smiling and loving all of your efforts in keeping his ideas and beliefs alive!

Good matching!
Richie

Richie:
I did a big time double take when I saw your post. You would do all of us a great favor by posting more often as few, if any of us, had as much face time with the The Hat. Looking forward to more matching wisdom. You are old enough to be wise, aren't you?

Bill

[Seven Furlongs]

Thanks for the replies, I greatly appreciate it.

I think for the sake of economy, I shouldn't sacrifice one call for the other. So, I realized that I should use both, starting from the first call and working my way towards the finish. I think I've settled on being a 1st call, 2nd call and finish matcher/capper.

I'm basically working the match-up Brohamer/Quirin speed points style, as after a hiatus from handicapping I'm trying to get to a method that is both economical in terms of the numbers it uses and effective. I decided on the Brohamer/Quirin speed points method because I can equalize with track to track that way. I am a mere mortal and do not have a track equalization chart etched in my mind the way the Hat did, so I need a crutch to lean on.


Nice match-up story from today. I thought Aqueduct would be some kind of soggy bog, so I didn't even handicap it until an hour before post when the track was deemed good. Cut to the second race, where the public for some reason believed that Todd Pletcher is in fact Jesus and could turn a horse that has run 1:14 3/5 on the inner in to something that could beat every other horse in the field, when in fact the Pletcher runner, the 6, looked terrible.

The winner, the 1 horse was superior because the Belmont 6.5 furlong race I used had the following pace times: 22 3/5, 45 4/5, and 1:17 4/5. Granted I had to go 6 deep to get that pace line, but the good form the horse was in justified me to do so. The thing I found so puzzling about this race is that at an extra 1/2 furlong the 1 horse's Belmont Paceline was a mere 3 1/5 seconds slower than the Pletcher horse that was being bet down.

Granted the 1 didn't pay boxcar prices, but a little over 10 bucks is a nice reward for a pretty easy match-up. The only difficulty in the race was knowing what a Belmont Paceline translates to the Big A's Inner track, but even without that knowledge, the 1 horse's last pace line, despite being in the slop, illustrated that it was much the better horse than the Pletcher 6 horse. The Match-Up nailed it.

And to echo what others have written, it would be great if Richie would post more often.

[The Pook]

Good one SF! Turns out we were in sync on this one. Bet the #1 along with another in there and made a small profit. Had the line 6 back as the pace line too which looked good considering its last race.