Double Race 11/12 at Oaklawn

[MM42]

All,

Thank you for the feedback/questions, as I am new to data and only two weeks in. I was under the impression that the win/place/show horses are in the top 5 RX 80% (or more) of the time (correct me if im wrong)? What I have been doing is handicapping all 5 horses (whether they are low or high). In this race, a fast/pressured pace was almost certain (RS 20, 4 E horses). I was looking for a horse that I believe would be able to stay on the pace/stalk and close in (9 was a EP6). The 9 did exactly that, 4th on the 1/4, 2nd on the 1/2 and then closed nice and easy in the stretch. The 9 was the 2nd best late on NP screen (6 was first but long layoff) and was also the swinghorse. The 9 had back class (2nd best CR on entries screen) and second off the layoff (nice work too). These were all things I considered. I did mention in my initial post, I also liked the 1 (closed, came third) but I thought he was going to be a little farther back and may not get there (E3). Not exactly sure if I can provide any more info. Attached is the ticket since it was requested. Hope this helps!

Thank you!

Marc

[darmar]

Hi Marc thanks for posting your winning ticket and Congrats on your great score. I have not gotten my head around all the nuances of pace / leverage method as of yet and probably don't have enough time left to completely embrace it either. I will just chalk this one up as ungettable for me.
Thanks
Darryl

[Jake]

Originally Posted by MM42

All,

Thank you for the feedback/questions, as I am new to data and only two weeks in. I was under the impression that the win/place/show horses are in the top 5 RX 80% (or more) of the time (correct me if im wrong)? What I have been doing is handicapping all 5 horses (whether they are low or high). In this race, a fast/pressured pace was almost certain (RS 20, 4 E horses). I was looking for a horse that I believe would be able to stay on the pace/stalk and close in (9 was a EP6). The 9 did exactly that, 4th on the 1/4, 2nd on the 1/2 and then closed nice and easy in the stretch. The 9 was the 2nd best late on NP screen (6 was first but long layoff) and was also the swinghorse. The 9 had back class (2nd best CR on entries screen) and second off the layoff (nice work too). These were all things I considered. I did mention in my initial post, I also liked the 1 (closed, came third) but I thought he was going to be a little farther back and may not get there (E3). Not exactly sure if I can provide any more info. Attached is the ticket since it was requested. Hope this helps!

Thank you!

Marc

Thanks, Marc. Just curious if you thought that was consistent with the leverage-pace method from the overview documentation. Appreciate your answer, I wasn't doubting that you cashed.

[MM42]

Jake,

I am only two weeks in with the data/tool. I had an awesome meeting with Dick that morning. We went over a lot of different nuisances with the data etc. It was extremely helpful. I still follow the starting process (filter by top 5 RX horses), review the pace number, review EPR/LPR/TPR but then I filter by running style so I can give myself a good idea of how the top horses will align with the pace. I then handicap those top 5 horses via PP. After that, I use the segments screen and new pace as a "verification" of my decision on which horse to use etc. I mainly play doubles and pick 3s, some W bets as well. I don't know if I would have used the 9 (regularly handicapping with a DRF) if the data didn't put the horse in the top 5 RX. Because it was there, I had to handicap it and landed on it. I am new to the data and open to anything that will make me better! Hope that helps!


Marc

[kahunab]

Marc has given us a reminder. I can honestly say that I probably would have lost this race.
I remember a long time ago in a Follow UP or a seminar (I really am an old guy!) where we looked at a race where there were a ton of Early horses and only a couple of late. Doc Sartin said, "When there is this much Early who are very close to call, bet the Late horses no matter the numbers." Sometimes we get number blind. At least I do. We probably win more races that way in the Leverage Pace approach by focusing on the numbers and percentages but I hope that as we handicap we remember that Leverage Pace gives us multiple looks at the race and not just numbers on one line. Marc has given us an example to take the broad look at running styles and and Early Speed Points.

Here is the Segments screen with all the horses as competitors. We have 4 strong Early horses that look to fly out for the lead with lots of heat, pushing each other on the front end. Even looking at the numbers we see 4 horses tight at the 2nd call, 11,5,8,10 tight at the 2nd call. What happens if we eliminate them from the contenders for the win and just look at the Pressers.


The 3 best finishers are the 1,7,9. As Marc pointed out the 9 is the Swing horse in NP meaning he can run Early or Late. His ESP 6 would point to him running up closer than any of the other pressers.

This is a good example of looking at how running style and ESP can influence a race. Sometimes we have to look at the bigger picture. Thanks for the example Marc.

[Lt1]

Hi Marc. Thanks for your response. What I was questioning was how the 9 could rank above the 1, which has superior numbers, on your screen shot. Dick has provided some good insight with his screen shots and you would do well to pay attention to his advise.
Tim

[kahunab]

Hi Guys,
Sorry I posted the wrong screen shot. Mine was without scratches and using the last line.
Here is an even more clear look at the race with scratches and using the Best of the Last Three preceptor lines.


As an aside, look how closely the race ran to the running styles and the ESP.

Have a great day, sorry about the mistake. Thanks, Tim for your eagle eye.

[MM42]

All,

Parx - Race 2/3 double - $10 double 3,8/2 x $14.30 = 143.00

Small hit at Parx today following same strategy that I used for oaklawn double. Race 2 had no pace whatsoever. I was looking for two horses that will create the pace/be on the lead. That ended up being the 3 and 8 (top 2 NP early). The image shows the top 5 is filtered by RS. They were both P1 which should be infront of the 3 other horses (and other contenders since they are better horses). The 8,1,3 went to the lead. The 3 eventually passed the 1 and then came head to head with the 8 and went by. For race 3, this race had a 17 pace rating. Based on the RS, I anticipated the 5&6 to battle on the lead. The 2 was the class and late horse (1 NP late). The 2 stumbled at the gate, came from dead last to contest the 3 spot and then went by the 5&6 in the stretch. The 2 ended up being 3/5 but a $14 double was not bad at all.

[kahunab]

Gentlemen,
What is Marc reminding us of?
Bradshaw maybe? Running Style matters, maybe? Let's look at PRX today. As Marc suggests we choose the top 5 RX3 horses as our contenders. (Remember our database of 1343 sprints, RX3 has the winner in the top 5 94% of the time. Using BOLT lines. Best Of the Last Three Perceptor.) If as he suggests we line them up on running style after selecting the top 5 RX3 horses as contenders, here is what we see. I will just show you the pictures of all the non-maidens without comment. What do you see?

[kahunab]

Here are the rest of the PRX non-maiden races.






What do you see? What do you think? What are your questions?