Paceline selection

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by Ted Craven

Bluewaterbill,

There are lots of different possible scenarios for going back, but I try to use a few principles:

1. a horse runs as fast as it needs to, not as fast as it can
2. err on the side of recency
3. don't mix surfaces unless there's no choice (then have confidence in your ITV figs)
4. don't mix distance structures unless you have no choice (also with ITV confidence)
5. for Turf races only, consider using good lines from the entire PP set (if the horse seems fit today)

Ted

With regard to item #4 on the above list, are you speaking of sprint lines in route races, route lines in sprint races, or sprint lines in sprint races and route lines in route races?
i.e.- 5.5f to 7f, 7f to 6f and etc.
8.0f to 8.5f, 8.5f to 8.3f and etc.
Many times you will find that a horse who runs early at 7f will run as a presser or sustained when turned back to 5.5f or 6f, as just one example.

[shoeless]

George Kaywood, a respected handicapper from Kansas City backs up a contention I have long held: "Reliance on a single pace lines is the biggest error in pace evaluation."




Dr.Hugo Z Hackenbush a well respected handicapper says use whatever works for you not what works for others

[Ted Craven]

Originally Posted by For The Lead

With regard to item #4 on the above list, are you speaking of sprint lines in route races, route lines in sprint races, or sprint lines in sprint races and route lines in route races?
i.e.- 5.5f to 7f, 7f to 6f and etc.
8.0f to 8.5f, 8.5f to 8.3f and etc.
Many times you will find that a horse who runs early at 7f will run as a presser or sustained when turned back to 5.5f or 6f, as just one example.

FTL,

I was referring to sprint lines in route races, or route lines in sprint races. If today is a route and a horse has recent decent sprint lines and recent so-so route lines, I'd err on the side of representing it from the routes rather than the sprints, unless much older performance shows it has run better in routes, when fit, than recently, and recent sprint lines project well and show a more later energy disbursement balance.

If today is a sprint and I have only recent routes, I'll give it a go to see if there is some brilliant early speed - but I am usually dubious about such a scenario for the win (though in-the-money should not be excluded).

Again, as a principle, when possible, I'd try to minimize the distance equalization required. I guess that means I'd prefer projecting a 7f in a 8f route to using a 6f or 5.5f line. I can appreciate that a 7f line turned back to a 6f or shorter could change the energy distribution, but if there's nothing else to go on, I use it. Over the great number of events, I personally prefer the consistency that regular projection/extraction routines provide me, or the other line selection principles (along with using Total Energies and Speed Ratings, which I didn't discuss) - to trusting myself with a jazz approach (one time this, next time that). A traffic cop or board of governors on method, if you will. I'm sure there are many levels of finesse possible here, and some may possess a more refined tool box.

Ted

[shoeless]

Tim,This George Kaywood you keep referring to is it the same guy that Doc talks about in the seminar tapes that was pirating his programs

Ted Adds: JEFF - Just knock it off re Kaywood, OK. Please. No point.

[Charlie D]

Originally Posted by shoeless

Dr.Hugo Z Hackenbush a well respected handicapper says use whatever works for you not what works for others

Mr Pizzola stated creative thinking, i think. Hat stated there is more than one way, i think and Dr Howard Sartin stated on Page 1 of The Dynamics of Incremental Velocity and Energy Exertion Manual. There is NO SINGLE BEST WAY to handicap a thoroughbred race. There is no RIGHT way. There is no WRONG way. There is only the successful or unsuccessful way as measured by......



There are no RULES, only guidelines....... Jim "The Hat" Bradshaw, Match Up Manual.

This is NOT a recipe book......Dr Howard Sartin, The Yellow Manual

Seems some handicapping Legends are singing from same song book as Dr Hugo Z Hackenbush