How far back??

[grahors]

IN GENERAL, how far back time wise and number of lines, will you go back to find a nifty pace line to work with.
I know there are situations like the horse has been running way out of it's class or on the wrong surface, but IN GENERAL, how far will you go??
I try to limit it to 90days and 3 pace lines.
Cecil

[Tim Y]

Originally Posted by grahors

IN GENERAL, how far back time wise and number of lines, will you go back to find a nifty pace line to work with.
I know there are situations like the horse has been running way out of it's class or on the wrong surface, but IN GENERAL, how far will you go??
I try to limit it to 90days and 3 pace lines.
Cecil

There is no ONE answer: the past performances tell a tale DISTINCT to each horse. With the blade runners (turf) the Pizzolla window tells you to look at ALL of them and pick the BEST turf line.

To find out the best running style of a horse one has to look at all of them and then to see where today's form cycles is compared to their best line in the past ten: was that best line an exception? boosted by a track variant? or, has this animal produced similar lines in the past close to the ones recently? Are there several lines telling you this one is going south along with the horse dropping big time in class off few workouts? or is improvement noted in the past several (the E/EP is the clue here).

NO SINGLE APPROACH can be touted as each animal's history is distinct to them. Young horses get good quickly: War Emblem, this year's Belmont winner...others regain lost form, others project form indicating a surface change would benefit them...... the combinations are many. Decreasing total energy and increasing % median versus similar paces is a hallmark of a horse going off form.

There are so many reasons to look at the entire story: Think how one evaluates, say, a baseball player: stats over the career compared to stats this season, injuries, playing different positions etc. JUST like evaluating a horse's chances RELATIVE to today's match up.

[Charlie D]

a good question grahors and a good reply Tim


I think it depends on what variables you use in your handicapping and how much weight you give these variables

[Bill V.]

I rarely go back past the 4th line
I very rarly go back more than 3 lines for horses with a low APV
rankings relative to the rest of the horses.

Being able to wait and do races online and seeing live odds helps
me decide how far back to go on the betting favorite


As far as layoffs, No real set number of days
But again, The better the APV and Class ratings, The more forgiving I am.
When I use a horse off a long layoff - over 50 days or so
That horse needs to be a top 3 VDC or else it becomes a hide
Note I do this for win betting mode which I'm in 97% of the time

GS
Bill

[Charlie D]

Bill

Does not Racino money make using APV a bit iffy nowadays???

[Bill V.]

Hello Charlie

Yes It is a Iffy rating
I really should add the fact that I use both the apv and class ratings
figures. not just the apv

[MIKE1121]

I only look at the last 4 races per horse. One of these lines will either have the winner in it or you won't get it anyways.If you feel that the top 4 races don't represent the horse how do you choose between lines 5 thru 10???.Most likely doing this will only result in error and won't boost your bottom line anyways. If you do feel the need to go back further atleast first ask yourself WHY? and then ONLY if you can find a GOOD reason to go back further then proceed.Don't do it just becouse.

The more variables you can eliminate the easier it becomes to being a profitable player.Years ago I felt the NEED to have a complicated method to beat the game, becouse I was more interested in being seen as some rocket science impressing my friends with scientific mumbo jumbo, the only problem was that I always lost money. After I chucked it all and found a keep it extremely simple approach I made money and lots of it.


Good luck.

Mike.

[shoeless]

Mike,I really enjoy reading your posts,you really have a good insight of how to look at races.Jeff

[alydar_ David]

I suggest you do whatever you're comfortable with and find what works for you. Test out some different approaches.

Personally, I no longer follow any rules. I look at each case individually.

Here's one example. Suppose the horse has been off for 300 days. All of his last eight races were run within 30 days of each other.

Then you spot a layoff of 300 days between his 10th race and his 9th race. His 9th race was on today's track, at today's class, on today's surface, and the horse ran well without having any trouble.

You also notice that the horse has had three workouts within the last month, one of them two weeks ago at five furlongs. All of them at today's track.

You also notice that the trainer has a healthy win percentage and ROI after a long layoff.

I'd use that ninth race back...in a heartbeat.

[Tim Y]

Originally Posted by MIKE1121

The more variables you can eliminate the easier it becomes to being a profitable player.Years ago I felt the NEED to have a complicated method to beat the game, because I was more interested in being seen as some rocket science impressing my friends with scientific mumbo jumbo, the only problem was that I always lost money. After I chucked it all and found a keep it extremely simple approach I made money and lots of it.


.

THe essence of the book and philosophy of BLINK by Galdwell