Running Style Question - Page 3 - Pace and Cap

MIKE1121 · 08-03-2008, 11:06 PM

Running styles come in 2 forms, those that need the lead and those that don't ( a closer is a closer ).It can be that simple.

The main reason that I look at running styles is becouse I like to visualize how the field will spread itself out after a 1/4 of racing. I like to see how many horses will be within a lenght of the lead, how many will be 3 lenghts back , how many will be 5 to 7 back and who will be way back .My preference is too look at beaten lenghts behind the leader or leaders rather than if they are a P/S or a S. A S horse who is 7 lenghts behind is a lot different than one who is 11 lenghts behind.

As far as Paceline selection goes I rarely go beyond the last 3 lines .90% of the time I will stick my horses with one of the last 3 pacelines, this is one of the changes I made this year that turned me from breaking even to making money at the track.

Good luck.

Tim Y · 08-04-2008, 02:39 AM

Horses in form run close up to the pace even when the PREDICTED beaten lenghts might suggest their being on the lead.

POSITION AND ENERGY DISTRIBUTION ARE OFTEN NOT THE SAME. To understand the latter you have to abandon the former.

MIKE1121 · 08-04-2008, 06:45 PM

Horses will mimic todays beaten lenghts based upon what they most often run, regardless of anything else, if a horse is 6 to 8 beaten lenghts behind the leader in 7 or 8 past races he will most likely be 6 to 8 lenghts behind in todays race. Open up a form look at a bunch of horses last races and see how often it matches with their dominate position.

Mike.

Jimbo282 · 08-04-2008, 08:32 PM

Mike no disrespect but I have to disagree with only your last 3 pacelines. I have found more than a few winners looking down further in the pp's at the horse running at the same track, same class, same distance and sometimes same jockey. The horse for course.

Jimmy

Tim Y · 08-05-2008, 01:54 PM

[QUOTE=MIKE1121;37129]Horses will mimic todays beaten lenghts based upon what they most often run, regardless of anything else, if a horse is 6 to 8 beaten lenghts behind the leader in 7 or 8 past races he will most likely be 6 to 8 lenghts behind in todays race. Open up a form look at a bunch of horses last races and see how often it matches with their dominate position.

/QUOTE]

Ah if horses were only that consistent. All horses ON DIRT have form cycles that negate that regularity.

mikesal57 · 08-05-2008, 02:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jimbo282

Mike no disrespect but I have to disagree with only your last 3 pacelines. I have found more than a few winners looking down further in the pp's at the horse running at the same track, same class, same distance and sometimes same jockey. The horse for course.

Jimmy

Jimbo..I think you hit it on the head...I believe you need to look at the whole Pp's to get a clue on how a horse should/can run today...yes...it will take a little more time...but when u hit one of these, it pays off...also I think that a race with conditions of a limited amount wins can be best for this situation...

A month or 2 ago Ted interviewed a guy that was near the leaders of a contest overseas and he showed us how he handicapped a race and hit a big winner. Since then I used his procedure and came up with some good winners..

Like Saratoga's 6Th race yesterday...it was a claiming race for non winners of 2 lifetime...what I did was to use RDSS and input the horses BEST TPR race in his PP and then review the results to see if he can do it again....THIS ONE DID at $29

mike

MIKE1121 · 08-05-2008, 03:41 PM

For years I tried to hit 100% of my races doing this I was stuck with a low 18- 19% win rate with a small loss on the dollar. It wasn't till I stopped doing this that my win rate doubled and my roi went positive. I fully realize that sometimes the only way that I will come up with a winner is too go back 5 or 6 pacelines to get him, but this also adds more confusion , you are adding more variables thus more opportunities to make mistakes.

In a field of 10 horses if you only look at the last 3 lines you have 30 possible combinations, if you look at all 10 lines you have 100 possible combinations. I found that by limmiting myself to the top 3 lines that I will miss out on 15 % of potential winners, but I will be much more accurate in hitting my potential 85 % of the races thus my win % wented up and now I make money.

Mike.

MIKE1121 · 08-05-2008, 03:47 PM

[QUOTE=Tim Y;37140]

Quote:

Originally Posted by MIKE1121

Horses will mimic todays beaten lenghts based upon what they most often run, regardless of anything else, if a horse is 6 to 8 beaten lenghts behind the leader in 7 or 8 past races he will most likely be 6 to 8 lenghts behind in todays race. Open up a form look at a bunch of horses last races and see how often it matches with their dominate position.

/QUOTE]

Ah if horses were only that consistent. All horses ON DIRT have form cycles that negate that regularity.

Sorry, I was only talking about first call position. You are right not all horses are consistant,but many are. My method is not rule based I make many exceptions and will make alterations as needed.

Bill V. · 08-05-2008, 04:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by partsnut

Dick and Jeff,

I responded to both of you but for some reason my response which was
positive and cordial to both parties was deleted

Dick, thanks for the kind words.

Jeff, I explained the last 3 items for you.

It seems the server was having problems.

Maybe my response will mystically re-appear.

Oh well.

I apologize if you have posted lately and your post did not
go on or seem like they were deleted

We are having MAJOR problems with the hosting company
and I messed up with some issues

I am sure this will all be fixed soon Ted is once again
working like crazy for us and Richie is helping keep me
from blowing gaskets and talking to the right people for me

But even If I have to rig up a generator to the back tire of the truck
to keep the sight running I will do it

Thanks for your understanding

Bill

gl45 · 08-05-2008, 06:11 PM

Mike57,
nice hit. was the last line that made you a winner, or line 7.
Ray T. "A" angle is hitting almost 70% winner. Fiddlers was one of those, and Q public wouldn't touch him with chinese money.

08-03-2008, 11:06 PM	#21
MIKE1121 Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 131	Running styles come in 2 forms, those that need the lead and those that don't ( a closer is a closer ).It can be that simple. The main reason that I look at running styles is becouse I like to visualize how the field will spread itself out after a 1/4 of racing. I like to see how many horses will be within a lenght of the lead, how many will be 3 lenghts back , how many will be 5 to 7 back and who will be way back .My preference is too look at beaten lenghts behind the leader or leaders rather than if they are a P/S or a S. A S horse who is 7 lenghts behind is a lot different than one who is 11 lenghts behind. As far as Paceline selection goes I rarely go beyond the last 3 lines .90% of the time I will stick my horses with one of the last 3 pacelines, this is one of the changes I made this year that turned me from breaking even to making money at the track. Good luck.

08-04-2008, 02:39 AM	#22
Tim Y turf historian Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 6,455	Horses in form run close up to the pace even when the PREDICTED beaten lenghts might suggest their being on the lead. POSITION AND ENERGY DISTRIBUTION ARE OFTEN NOT THE SAME. To understand the latter you have to abandon the former.

08-04-2008, 06:45 PM	#23
MIKE1121 Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 131	Horses will mimic todays beaten lenghts based upon what they most often run, regardless of anything else, if a horse is 6 to 8 beaten lenghts behind the leader in 7 or 8 past races he will most likely be 6 to 8 lenghts behind in todays race. Open up a form look at a bunch of horses last races and see how often it matches with their dominate position. Mike.

08-04-2008, 08:32 PM	#24
Jimbo282 Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2008 Location: New Orleans,La. Posts: 116	Mike no disrespect but I have to disagree with only your last 3 pacelines. I have found more than a few winners looking down further in the pp's at the horse running at the same track, same class, same distance and sometimes same jockey. The horse for course. Jimmy

08-05-2008, 01:54 PM	#25
Tim Y turf historian Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 6,455	[QUOTE=MIKE1121;37129]Horses will mimic todays beaten lenghts based upon what they most often run, regardless of anything else, if a horse is 6 to 8 beaten lenghts behind the leader in 7 or 8 past races he will most likely be 6 to 8 lenghts behind in todays race. Open up a form look at a bunch of horses last races and see how often it matches with their dominate position. /QUOTE] Ah if horses were only that consistent. All horses ON DIRT have form cycles that negate that regularity.

08-05-2008, 03:41 PM	#27
MIKE1121 Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 131	For years I tried to hit 100% of my races doing this I was stuck with a low 18- 19% win rate with a small loss on the dollar. It wasn't till I stopped doing this that my win rate doubled and my roi went positive. I fully realize that sometimes the only way that I will come up with a winner is too go back 5 or 6 pacelines to get him, but this also adds more confusion , you are adding more variables thus more opportunities to make mistakes. In a field of 10 horses if you only look at the last 3 lines you have 30 possible combinations, if you look at all 10 lines you have 100 possible combinations. I found that by limmiting myself to the top 3 lines that I will miss out on 15 % of potential winners, but I will be much more accurate in hitting my potential 85 % of the races thus my win % wented up and now I make money. Mike.

08-05-2008, 06:11 PM	#30
gl45 Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 878	Mike57, nice hit. was the last line that made you a winner, or line 7. Ray T. "A" angle is hitting almost 70% winner. Fiddlers was one of those, and Q public wouldn't touch him with chinese money.