new pace - Page 3 - Pace and Cap

Ted Craven · 07-17-2011, 10:49 AM

Thanks Pino for the MNR stats and the progress report. So again, the only wager rules you've applied are: 4 horse exacta box, must include the favourite; and the only races considered are the Claiming condition categories you mentioned, only distances you mentioned, only Dirt. Is that right? No other reference to how many other low odds horses other than the favourite might be (e.g. 9/5 plus 5/2 in the same race, both contenders). Or are some races like this a pass also?

Ted

Ted Craven · 07-17-2011, 11:12 AM

Would you be able to post 2 or 3 spreadsheets (or images) of races from MNR this year showing your NewPace calculations? I just want to compare what RDSS creates using TrackMaster's SR (or the internal Adjusted SR). I presume you are using BRIS or DRF SR?

Thanks in advance!

Ted

shoeless · 07-17-2011, 12:40 PM

Pino,

Nice job.I was going to ask the same question as Ted about what kind of bet your spreadsheet was based on.

gl45 · 07-17-2011, 01:19 PM

Ted, Jeff,
Five races from MNR 7/15 posted by Richie for everybody to look and compare the differences between BRIS and Trackmaster numbers.
Any questions to why I choose certain horses please ask.

Ted Craven · 07-17-2011, 02:07 PM

Race 6, why is L2 #6 and not #7? #7 has a higher Low SR than #6 (69 vs 63). Favourite?

Race 10, could you explain the tied-break process you used to choose the #6 and #8 as L1 and L2, and not the other Late horses (all tied or separated by 1 point of Low SR).

Thanks Pino!

Ted

gl45 · 07-17-2011, 02:38 PM

#6 has higher High, better rider and is a fav.

gl45 · 07-17-2011, 02:50 PM

Ted,
Horses seems to run toward higher rating, unless are in the race for a workout
#6 and #8 have higher High than the other late horses. I always choose the higher to select the contenders.

Ted Craven · 07-17-2011, 03:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gl45

I always choose the higher to select the contenders.

For Late contenders, you select from the Hi SR sort, rather than the (recommended) Low SR sort? Was this the approach you took in your 2010 MNR study?

Thanks,

Ted

Dave Schwartz · 07-17-2011, 03:07 PM

Quote:

Horses seems to run toward higher rating, unless are in the race for a workout
#6 and #8 have higher High than the other late horses. I always choose the higher to select the contenders.

Experience SEEMS to show that "high" (RegSpd) is more effective with low-odds consistency, while "low" (RegSpd) works better at getting higher-prices. We've actually been working on an object that uses a 3rd factor to improve performance with RegSpeed. Awaiting better research on that.

gl45 · 07-17-2011, 03:50 PM

Ted,
yes that was my approach. Select High SR sort.
From the 2010 study:
in 226 races when the favorite did win OR placed the average exacta was $16.29 for $12 bet.

07-17-2011, 10:49 AM	#21
Ted Craven Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada Posts: 9,258	Thanks Pino for the MNR stats and the progress report. So again, the only wager rules you've applied are: 4 horse exacta box, must include the favourite; and the only races considered are the Claiming condition categories you mentioned, only distances you mentioned, only Dirt. Is that right? No other reference to how many other low odds horses other than the favourite might be (e.g. 9/5 plus 5/2 in the same race, both contenders). Or are some races like this a pass also? Ted __________________ RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™

07-17-2011, 11:12 AM	#22
Ted Craven Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada Posts: 9,258	Would you be able to post 2 or 3 spreadsheets (or images) of races from MNR this year showing your NewPace calculations? I just want to compare what RDSS creates using TrackMaster's SR (or the internal Adjusted SR). I presume you are using BRIS or DRF SR? Thanks in advance! Ted __________________ RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™

07-17-2011, 01:19 PM	#24
gl45 Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 878	Ted, Jeff, Five races from MNR 7/15 posted by Richie for everybody to look and compare the differences between BRIS and Trackmaster numbers. Any questions to why I choose certain horses please ask. Attached Images Last edited by gl45; 07-17-2011 at 01:21 PM.

07-17-2011, 02:07 PM	#25
Ted Craven Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada Posts: 9,258	Race 6, why is L2 #6 and not #7? #7 has a higher Low SR than #6 (69 vs 63). Favourite? Race 10, could you explain the tied-break process you used to choose the #6 and #8 as L1 and L2, and not the other Late horses (all tied or separated by 1 point of Low SR). Thanks Pino! Ted __________________ RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™

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07-17-2011, 12:40 PM	#23
shoeless Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,655	Pino, Nice job.I was going to ask the same question as Ted about what kind of bet your spreadsheet was based on.

07-17-2011, 02:38 PM	#26
gl45 Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 878	#6 has higher High, better rider and is a fav.

07-17-2011, 02:50 PM	#27
gl45 Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 878	Ted, Horses seems to run toward higher rating, unless are in the race for a workout #6 and #8 have higher High than the other late horses. I always choose the higher to select the contenders.

07-17-2011, 03:50 PM	#30
gl45 Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 878	Ted, yes that was my approach. Select High SR sort. From the 2010 study: in 226 races when the favorite did win OR placed the average exacta was $16.29 for $12 bet.