Picking Contenders & Pacelines

[Ted Craven]

Thanks Randy! Looking forward to reviewing those articles. (And thanks for those 2 missing FU pages you mailed me - posting them any moment now ...).

Ted

[vderdak]

Can you explain the guideline rule regarding all sprint pp's in a route race, I'm not familar with it and I often include sprinters, I would have included the #1 horse, 2nd race back at 7F, thanks.

[Bill V.]

Thanks FTL
This is a great race to keep in all our lesson notebooks.

I agree with your pacelines,

looking at the race using phase 1 ( the tpr screen )
you wrote

Now we move on the the TPR screen and look what we see. #6 ranks 3RD for EPR!
But notice there is no early horse by the "E/L" standard. In fact, the #6, who appears to be the early horse,
has the biggest blue stick! What are we to make of this?

In your screen shot we see the 6 2 5 and 7 all within 1 point of each other
In Phase 1 each full point of EPR, FFR (LPR) or TPR (CPR) = equals 1 length
Phase 1 is velocity based, So what we see developing is the 4 contenders within
1 length of each other at the 3/4 mile call. This tight group will head for home
We know the 6 will be all out to be the leader of this group.
As followers of Phase 1 know the beauty of the numbers is that you can visualize
the race and the positions of the contenders.
In your screen shot we have the golden egg
We have a Early horse with one of the the best EPR's ( less than 1 length) and also the best FFR ( LPR ) rating

Now lets look at the race we have the 6 2 7 and 5 all within 1 length of each other as they enter the stretch.
But as apposed to the cluster at the 2nd call (3/4) look at the advantage
the 6 has in the 3rd fraction ! FFR - LPR

The reason the 6 is the biggest blue stick is because it has a much better
FFR - LPR than the other contenders in the race
The difference between the EPR number and the LPR number is what the sticks
are telling us

Here is the race from the result charts Once again we see the winner
who went wire to wire as running with late energy EPR 72 FFR 80
Its EPR is 8 points less than its LPR so next time this horse runs its PP
line will show another blue stick with a -8

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by vderdak

Can you explain the guideline rule regarding all sprint pp's in a route race, I'm not familar with it and I often include sprinters, I would have included the #1 horse, 2nd race back at 7F, thanks.

Sure, when you are looking for a line, you are looking for a line that is on the same surface and at same approximate distance.
Route races are route races and sprint races are sprint races. The times are different, the points of call are different, and not all horse have the same running style in both sprints and routes.
You mentioned using a 7 furlong race. Ok. A 7 furlong race runs out of a chute on the backstretch. The horses run approximately 4 furlongs before encountering a turn.
By contrast, the first thing the horses in an 8 furlong race encounter after breaking from the gate is a turn. In fact, the first call of an 8 furlong race is run around the first turn. Not exactly the same, wouldn't you agree?
Does this mean that a horse with only sprint races can never win a route race? Absolutely not!
Let me put it this way. You're walking along a road and it is on your mind that you need a needle. You walk right up to a pile of needles laying in the middle of the road. Off the road is a haystack. It has a sign on it that says, "there is one needle in this haystack". Is it really that important to find the needle in the haystack or will one of the needles in plain sight work just as well?

At the beginning of this thread there are some sample races taken from the Follow Ups and/or Paceline Manual. These posts primarily center on labeling each horse for its' running style and also choosing a line. I would encourage you to not only read these posts, but also go to the library on this sight and read the Paceline Manual. I believe what you are looking for starts on page 17.

Hope this helps and good luck to you.

[Lt1]

FTL with regards to your answer to Vderdak I would like to add that not all routes are run around 2 turns For example at Aqu 8f races on the main track are run out of the shute around 1 turn and at Bel most of the commonly run route dists on the dirt are around 1 turn. As to a sprinter going long I look to make sure he can't route. If I remember correctly if a sprinter is 5 lenghts better at the second call then all the routers in the field it is a threat to win.Enjoy reading your post.
Tim

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by Lt1

FTL with regards to your answer to Vderdak I would like to add that not all routes are run around 2 turns For example at Aqu 8f races on the main track are run out of the shute around 1 turn and at Bel most of the commonly run route dists on the dirt are around 1 turn. As to a sprinter going long I look to make sure he can't route. If I remember correctly if a sprinter is 5 lenghts better at the second call then all the routers in the field it is a threat to win.Enjoy reading your post.
Tim

You can also add Arlington Park to the extremely short list of thoroughbred race tracks that have one turn routes.

Since the vast majority of tracks have two turn routes, I thought it appropriate to address that group, rather than the handful of tracks that have one turn routes.

This was a good "heads up" on your part. Thanks.

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by vderdak

Can you explain the guideline rule regarding all sprint pp's in a route race, I'm not familar with it and I often include sprinters, I would have included the #1 horse, 2nd race back at 7F, thanks.

Another member saw your post and wrote to me asking for more information on the subject. I thought it would be good information for everyone. The following are his questions and my answers.

He wanted to know the win stats for ...
1 - horses whose last two races were sprints and today's race is a route. Answer=11%

2 - horses whose last three races were sprints and today's race is a route. Answer=11%

3 - horses whose last two races were routes and today's race is a sprint. Answer=9%

4 - horses whose last three race were routes and today's race is a sprint. Answer=9%

All the answers were rounded either up or down.

Just remember a little piece of advice from "Doc".

[vderdak]

FTL, thank you for the insight regarding my question.

[vderdak]

Mountainer Race #2 04/08/13 - #2 horse owns 1st and 2nd fraction for my contenders 2,4,6, & 8, fades big time in stretch last race, goes off 5/1 today, I loved him, he wins going away!

[Bill V.]

Originally Posted by vderdak

Mountainer Race #2 04/08/13 - #2 horse owns 1st and 2nd fraction for my contenders 2,4,6, & 8, fades big time in stretch last race, goes off 5/1 today, I loved him, he wins going away!

hello vderdak

Can you give a short comment on your thoughts for these 4 contenders
and selected pace lines

Thanks
Bill