The Hat Method and the "Mind's Eye" - Page 4 - Pace and Cap

RichieP · 04-14-2008, 03:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PeteC

Well Rich, I'll give it my best shot...1st call pace = 21.4

#3 vs #4...#3 faced that pace in its last race, which happened to be on the turf).she basically held position, (5-5-5-4) but did not do much else. 2 back she won versus a little slower pace than I'm looking for (21.8), but it's in the ballpark and she made a winning move (7-6-5-1). Those efforts look a heck of a lot better than #4 who has never faced today's pace. Edge to #3

#3 vs #5...#5 is an Early horse who won against a 22.7. Last out set the pace versus 21.8, in today's ballpark but still not quite 21.4. I give the edge to the #3 in this pair because I can't see #5 winning versus a 21.4 pace.

#3 vs #6...An easier call as the #6 has never faced today's pace. Edge to #3

#3 vs #7...Here is my projected pacesetter at 21.4. So far, I see that he should be able to get that 1 length comfort zone she had at the 1C last time. I also remember the 5-5-5-4 positioning of the #3 versus today's pace, I give the edge here to #7.

#7 vs #8...#8 ran well 7 back versus 21.8 (8-6-6-3), but, again, not quite 21.4, and I still don't have a challenger for the #7.

#7 vs #9...#9 is intriguing because of the fighting especially evident in lines 1 and 3. However, I see those were versus much slower paces. Line 9 is against a 21.7, but she really went nowhere (4-4-4-5). Still gotta give it to the #7.

#7 vs #10...#10 has never faced a pace close to today's.

Final match-up is between #7 and #11...#11 ran well versus a 21.9 (6-6-5-3), but still not quite as fast as 21.4 and positionally is still further back in the pack. At this point, I'm ready to select #7 and hope that one of the others don't pop up and press him unexpectedly (at least to me).

Pete

THIS is horse by horse matching done Hat's way. Regardless of outcome in this race note Pete's handling of each horse please.

1) The horses who have NOT faced the pace are QUICKLY dismissed

2) The horses who have and appear as contenders at first blush are then given extra attention and MULTIPLE lines are evaluated using the ENTIRE past performances of the horse.

Very very VERY pleased with the replies and feedback from everyone so far. More are coming so let me stop here.

Richie

VoodooFan · 04-14-2008, 04:39 PM

#7-Gloriously---Early---21.4 --[ Todays pace ]

#7 vs #3-Mailgram

-[Line 1]-held 5-5 positions against a 21.4 on turf. Not bad. Let's verify that line.
-[Line 2 & 3]--positions 7th at 1st call and position 5th at 1st call, in both lines only passed 1 horse, against a pace that is 4/10ths and 2/5ths slower at the 1st call. Confirms this horse is Sustained, will sit behind back of field at probably even a slower pace than Line 2 of 22.1 1st call and will give pacesetter no problems.---OUT

#7 vs #4-Possible

-[Lines 1 to 4]-1st calls of 23.5, 24.1, 22.2 and 22.1 with positions 5th, 5th, 7th and 4th to match. Only passed 1 horse from 1c to 2c in all those lines. The sprints confirm the 2 route lines that he is slow, Sustained, and will always sit back, even at a slower pace. Line 2, he is still 5th, 3.1 lengths behind pace setter against a 24.1. Horse definately stays away from battle and away from our pace setter.---OUT

#7 vs #5-Royal Diana

-[Line 1,2 & 4]-the other Early horse. 1st calls of 21.8, 22 & 22.7.
Definately wants the lead, breaking 1st twice at the break call. Went to a 21.8. Althought 4/10ths slower than pace setter, how much faster will he run to get that break position of 1 and be position 1 at 1st call? Neither him nor our pace setter is a proven fighter, so I am looking for an Other Than Early horse. How much ahead is the #7 with 4/10ths? How many lengths is 4/10ths ?? I don't know, but I think the #5 will kill his self , at least between the break and 1st call to try to get that led before collapsing. Since neither are fighters, its gonna cost the #7 some energy.---OUT

#7 vs #6-Lady On Holiday

-All the sprint lines confirm his route lines that this horse is slow, Sustained, and at todays pace, possibly a Late-Late horse. His fastest is position 7th, 9.1 lengths behind pace setter at a 22.2.---OUT

#7 vs #8-Liza Lu

-[Line 1]-throw out. Only proves he's possibly a gamer if pace is slower, plus it's in the slop.
-[Line 2 & 3]-Not looking good for horse. Two slow route lines, and he passed only one horse between 1c and 2c in both those lines.
-[Lines 4, 5, 6]-Same as Lines 1 and 2. Ready to throw horse out.
-[Line 7]-this line verifys that this horse will make moves between 1c and 2c no matter what the pace. In all lines, he has passed from 1 to 3 horses between 1c and 2c. Is this my Other Than Early horse? Positions 8-6-6 against a 21.8, and today is facing a 21.4. If the #5 will cost the #7 some energy, can THIS horse catch a battling horse at the top of the stretch with a 21.8 sitting 8th vs a 21.4? How bad will the #7 quit, or is he a quitter? This #8 is just too far behind to capitalize, and although the #7 is not a proven fighter, he is also NOT a proven quitter either. Have to look elsewhere for my Other Than Early horse. This #8 vs #7 in a two horse match race is ------OUT.

#7 vs #9-B R's Girl

[Lines 1-3]-one turf and two routes at a slow pace. Only proves to be a gamer at slow pace, will pass at least 1 or more horses between 1c and 2c. Need some sprint lines to confirm this.
[Line 4]-Sustained, maybe Late at todays pace compared to this very slow pace. Not looking good.
[Line 5]-same as lines 1-3.
[Line 6, 7, 8]-confirms previous lines that he is a slow horse and gamer at very slow pace than todays. Just about gone.
[Line 9]- this line gave me pause. My Other Than Early horse? This horse is 4th at a 21.7, and today he faces a 21.4, 3/10ths faster. How much faster is 3/10ths, or much closer will he be if #5 battles the #7 out the gate? The #7-- (21.4--45.1--57.7 ) vs #9's (21.7--45.6--59.4) in a match race.
The #9 faces a deficit of 3/10th at 1st call, 5/10ths at the 2nd call, and a 17/10ths deficit at the stretch, for a total of 25/10ths deficit. Will the #7's battle for the lead cost him 25/10ths deficit of energy so the #9 can catch him? Too much. Thought I had my Other Than Early horse---OUT.

#7 vs #10-Champagne Coolie

The fastest 1st call this horse has faced is a 22.2 sitting 6th. Coupled with Line 1 -22.7-- 46.4 sitting 5th and ONLY passed 1 horse confirms his other lines as being Sustained , slow, and will stay back. This horse is going to be
8th at the break , backing up at every call,only passing tiring, quitting horses.---OUT

#7 vs #11-And A Cherry Tree

-[Line 1]-only shows being a gamer at much slower pace, plus its the slop. Let's confirm this line.
-[Line 2]-confirms he's slow. Makes no positional moves, and sitting 6th and 6th at a 21.9, 5/10ths slower than todays pace. At a 45.4, he's going to be further back in either positions and/or lengths because Line 3 confirms this.
Also confirms he's ONLY a ONE MOVE horse. Will he be close enough to capitalize with that one move, or will he be able to make one move over the #7 being 8/10th slower at the 1st two calls ? Will the #7 quit enough for this horse to catch him with one move? Looking at this horses lengths that get longer , even when he moves a position, he only picks up the pieces of badly quitting horses. Our #7 is neither a proven fighter or proven quitter. The #11 has proven that he is very good at 23.4--46.6. ---OUT

So now I am only left with the #7, but have doubts about his ability to keep to the wire because the #5 has shown he will go for the lead out the gate, possibly kill hisself to do it between the break and 1st call, costing the #7 valuable energy.

Although neither are proven fighters, one should default to the speed of 21.4, but the being 1st in 2 break calls by the #5 makes me lean that he is possibly a gamer at the break and first call.

Since I could'nt find my Other Than Early horse and the #7 only ran 1 race and is not battle tested, I probably would pass the race and treat it like 1st time starters and maiden races, since these horses have yet to define their ceiling.

VoodooFan

VoodooFan · 04-14-2008, 05:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MIKE1121

Check some of his matchup posts in the hat section you will find his definitions there.None of them have been removed.

You can also give your own definition of running stlyes as long as you are consistant.

I assign a horse EARLY if he is less than 1 beaten length at the first call. 2nd by a head may be how he gets listed in the PPs but if you think about it you will see that maybe a split second earlier he may have been 1rst by a head.
Horses who are within 1 beaten lenght are running just as hard as the leader.Most of the time they too are trying to get the lead.
Keep it simple , this is the whole point of this exersize.

Pressers... 1 beaten lenght to 3 beaten lenghts. They are positioned in the FRONT 1/2 of the pack.In a 10 horse field they will be 2nd or 3rd.

Sustain.... more than 3 beaten lenghts at first call, their position should be seen as mid pack to the back of the pack. In a 10 horse field Sustain types will be 4th to 10th at the first call.

Mike.

Very Interesting. My understanding and reasoning:

EARLY--Position (1 ) at 1st call and Position 2nd by a HEAD at 1st call. 2nd by a head is fighting for the lead and possibly hidden early--missed the lead by a step.

PRESSER--Positions 2nd to 5th / 1 to 3 lengths at 1st call and within 1 length at 2nd call . If a horse in not within 1 length at the 2nd call, how is he pressing the leader? Still have a hard time with pressers.
**If a horse is 3rd or 4th, 1 length off the leader at both 1c and 2c, how is he pressing? Isn't UNDER 1 length considered PRESSURE?
If a horse is 2nd to 5th at the 1c, 1 to 3 lengths back, as long as he gets to within maybe 1 length and UNDER at the 2nd call, I have no problem calling him a presser, cause although he is not pressing the leader, he is pressing the pace, plus, being in positions 2nd to 5th at the 1st call 3 lengths back only confirms in my mind of him being MORE of a sustained presser/late presser, a presser that presses presser's as stated in the MatchUP 2, as long as he is within 1 length and under at the 2nd call.

SUSTAINED--Positions 6th on. Usually at least passes 1 or two horses every call.

SUSTAINED 2 (LATE-LATE)--One move horses. Usually one of the LAST 3 horses in BACK of field. Will usually make NO positional moves between 1c and 2c and even stretch.
Pass only quitting, lame horses, or if all horses have exerted ALL their energy they brought to the track that day.
I think Mr. Bradshaw says of these horses that they win when All the horses stop, and waits for him to pass them.

VoodooFan

VoodooFan · 04-14-2008, 05:43 PM

Hey Rich, next time you go over a race, could you give a reason why certain lines don't apply and why you are skipping over each of them to get to a confirmation line?

Could you put up a TENTHS comparative scale with either/both comparable to 5ths or lengths? I don't know what a 22.7 is.

Also, that stacking against todays pace is excellent post. Looks like I STILL did'nt understand the merits of stacking , how to use it effectively to get a clear picture of this horse abilities in todays pace.

I see Stacking helps Focus on POSITIONAL Moves horse makes, or habitual positional moves vs TODAYS pace, since todays pace are the only lines you will be stacking against.

I don't like or trust computer programs because : 1) I am imcompetant at using them , and 2) I find it gives me excuses of why I lost; maybe I need a better program; maybe I am not adjusting or using the adjustment feature correctly, maybe I need updated version, maybe,maybe....But from the looks of RDSS getting close to what Mr.Bradshaw does, I am very, very intrigued and interested, specially since Mr.Bradshaw is giving more and more guidelines to its evolvement; and people very eager to exhaust all of his ideas into it with the only question being, "this is how the computer did it and what horses it got, is this how you do it and the horses and horse you would get, Mr. Bradshaw??? CAN WE GET CLOSER??". Don't know if he ever had that much creative control over a program in Pirco.

Looks like all the lessons are bringing us here. The lessons are the piece by piece mechanical reasons and logic of why it works and why you must do it this way.

Brillant.

VoodooFan

shrink1 · 04-14-2008, 09:11 PM

Richie,
Her's my take on the race:
Horse #3 a turfer can run a 21.8 still no 21.4 Sustained
Horse#4 some good races with 22.2 and 22.1 still can't compete with 21.4 Sustained

Horse #5 the other early 21.8 the only close race still not 21.4

Horse# 6 some good races 22.4 22.2 and 22.8 sustained still not 21.4

Horse #7 the other early 21.4

Horse #8 Presser good race at 21.8 still not 21.4

Horse# 9 Presser not 21.4

Horse # 10 Sustained 22.7 22.5 still not 21.4

Horse # 11 Presser has a 21.9 still no 21.4
#7 should be our race winner
Ira

VoodooFan · 04-14-2008, 09:42 PM

Also noticed in the "Projecting Times Refresher " thread race example, you usually used the 1 to 3 most recent lines that has the 1st call projected pace to evaluate the horse, sometimes, regardless of what "other" lines are in between them that don't apply to todays pace.

Those lines either confirm or deny his performance in those lines that don't apply.

Another application of Stacking Pacelines.

Who cares if he's successful in the past. If the last 1 to 3 times he faced todays 1st call pace and blows it, his past successes do not apply TODAY.

Teaching thru example. Very, Very nice work.

VoodooFan

emilio840 · 04-14-2008, 11:06 PM

Hi Richie. When I look at the horses to match them up, the one that looms off the page is the #7 and the #5 would be my second choice. This race reminds me off the race in the matchup manual. (I wish all the races would be this CLEAR.) (This pattern is ingraved in my brain)

emilio

ignacio todoberto bernal · 04-15-2008, 03:06 AM

Hi Richie!
Pace=21.2
3 To 4-4 Is Out
3 To 5-5 Is Out
3 To 6-6 Is Out
3 To 7-3 Is Out
7 To 8-8 Is Out
7 To 9-9 Is Out
7 To 10-10 Is Out
7 Yo 11-11 Is Out
7 Horse To Win!

The 7 Will Eliminate The Other Early No.5,the 3 Horse The 's' Horse
Will Not Cacht It.

'if You Feel Is Going Tobite You! Let It Bite You!'

Hat's Unfamous Words!

Ignacio

RichieP · 04-16-2008, 09:26 AM

Good morning.

Anyone participating or following along with this thread who does NOT have a copy of Jim's newest Matchup2 book and would like to read it?

If you are interested contact me by PM here or by email if you are not a registered member of the site. There will be NO charge for the book.

What is asked is that you keep the book in the condition it got to you in and that you return it to me within 30-45 days please.
===========================================================

We will continue with this thread in couple of days. Spoke with Hat yesterday morning and he is VERY pleased with what I told him about all this.

He reminded me of EXACTLY how he did the process with me and suggested we do one more race and laid out the "how and why" part. He was right on the money. His memory is amazing.

We have a couple more things to do here. Then when we finish we will start another thread "The Mind's Eye -Part 2" where we will do a race Hat suggested.

Richie

MIKE1121 · 04-16-2008, 06:56 PM

VOODOO

I Just like to see how the field is going to be laid out, start to finish.Where all the horses are going to be positioned relative to one and another. This allows me to work my way from front of the pack to back in my selection. Before I will consider horses positioned 2 at first call I have to discount the leader. Before I consider horses positioned 3 at first call I have to find a reason to discount The leader and the 2nd positioned horse and so on and so on. Before I bet the last positioned horse ( a Slug ) I need to discount the entire field.

Mike.

04-14-2008, 09:11 PM	#35
shrink1 Grade 1 Join Date: Aug 2006 Location: Newton, N.J. Posts: 121	shrink1 Richie, Her's my take on the race: Horse #3 a turfer can run a 21.8 still no 21.4 Sustained Horse#4 some good races with 22.2 and 22.1 still can't compete with 21.4 Sustained Horse #5 the other early 21.8 the only close race still not 21.4 Horse# 6 some good races 22.4 22.2 and 22.8 sustained still not 21.4 Horse #7 the other early 21.4 Horse #8 Presser good race at 21.8 still not 21.4 Horse# 9 Presser not 21.4 Horse # 10 Sustained 22.7 22.5 still not 21.4 Horse # 11 Presser has a 21.9 still no 21.4 #7 should be our race winner Ira

04-16-2008, 09:26 AM	#39
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,014	Good morning. Anyone participating or following along with this thread who does NOT have a copy of Jim's newest Matchup2 book and would like to read it? If you are interested contact me by PM here or by email if you are not a registered member of the site. There will be NO charge for the book. What is asked is that you keep the book in the condition it got to you in and that you return it to me within 30-45 days please. =========================================================== We will continue with this thread in couple of days. Spoke with Hat yesterday morning and he is VERY pleased with what I told him about all this. He reminded me of EXACTLY how he did the process with me and suggested we do one more race and laid out the "how and why" part. He was right on the money. His memory is amazing. We have a couple more things to do here. Then when we finish we will start another thread "The Mind's Eye -Part 2" where we will do a race Hat suggested. Richie __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!"

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04-14-2008, 04:39 PM	#32
VoodooFan True Disciple of Voodoo Join Date: May 2006 Location: EarthQuake country( cali , baby) Posts: 349	#7-Gloriously---Early---21.4 --[ Todays pace ] #7 vs #3-Mailgram -[Line 1]-held 5-5 positions against a 21.4 on turf. Not bad. Let's verify that line. -[Line 2 & 3]--positions 7th at 1st call and position 5th at 1st call, in both lines only passed 1 horse, against a pace that is 4/10ths and 2/5ths slower at the 1st call. Confirms this horse is Sustained, will sit behind back of field at probably even a slower pace than Line 2 of 22.1 1st call and will give pacesetter no problems.---OUT #7 vs #4-Possible -[Lines 1 to 4]-1st calls of 23.5, 24.1, 22.2 and 22.1 with positions 5th, 5th, 7th and 4th to match. Only passed 1 horse from 1c to 2c in all those lines. The sprints confirm the 2 route lines that he is slow, Sustained, and will always sit back, even at a slower pace. Line 2, he is still 5th, 3.1 lengths behind pace setter against a 24.1. Horse definately stays away from battle and away from our pace setter.---OUT #7 vs #5-Royal Diana -[Line 1,2 & 4]-the other Early horse. 1st calls of 21.8, 22 & 22.7. Definately wants the lead, breaking 1st twice at the break call. Went to a 21.8. Althought 4/10ths slower than pace setter, how much faster will he run to get that break position of 1 and be position 1 at 1st call? Neither him nor our pace setter is a proven fighter, so I am looking for an Other Than Early horse. How much ahead is the #7 with 4/10ths? How many lengths is 4/10ths ?? I don't know, but I think the #5 will kill his self , at least between the break and 1st call to try to get that led before collapsing. Since neither are fighters, its gonna cost the #7 some energy.---OUT #7 vs #6-Lady On Holiday -All the sprint lines confirm his route lines that this horse is slow, Sustained, and at todays pace, possibly a Late-Late horse. His fastest is position 7th, 9.1 lengths behind pace setter at a 22.2.---OUT #7 vs #8-Liza Lu -[Line 1]-throw out. Only proves he's possibly a gamer if pace is slower, plus it's in the slop. -[Line 2 & 3]-Not looking good for horse. Two slow route lines, and he passed only one horse between 1c and 2c in both those lines. -[Lines 4, 5, 6]-Same as Lines 1 and 2. Ready to throw horse out. -[Line 7]-this line verifys that this horse will make moves between 1c and 2c no matter what the pace. In all lines, he has passed from 1 to 3 horses between 1c and 2c. Is this my Other Than Early horse? Positions 8-6-6 against a 21.8, and today is facing a 21.4. If the #5 will cost the #7 some energy, can THIS horse catch a battling horse at the top of the stretch with a 21.8 sitting 8th vs a 21.4? How bad will the #7 quit, or is he a quitter? This #8 is just too far behind to capitalize, and although the #7 is not a proven fighter, he is also NOT a proven quitter either. Have to look elsewhere for my Other Than Early horse. This #8 vs #7 in a two horse match race is ------OUT. #7 vs #9-B R's Girl [Lines 1-3]-one turf and two routes at a slow pace. Only proves to be a gamer at slow pace, will pass at least 1 or more horses between 1c and 2c. Need some sprint lines to confirm this. [Line 4]-Sustained, maybe Late at todays pace compared to this very slow pace. Not looking good. [Line 5]-same as lines 1-3. [Line 6, 7, 8]-confirms previous lines that he is a slow horse and gamer at very slow pace than todays. Just about gone. [Line 9]- this line gave me pause. My Other Than Early horse? This horse is 4th at a 21.7, and today he faces a 21.4, 3/10ths faster. How much faster is 3/10ths, or much closer will he be if #5 battles the #7 out the gate? The #7-- (21.4--45.1--57.7 ) vs #9's (21.7--45.6--59.4) in a match race. The #9 faces a deficit of 3/10th at 1st call, 5/10ths at the 2nd call, and a 17/10ths deficit at the stretch, for a total of 25/10ths deficit. Will the #7's battle for the lead cost him 25/10ths deficit of energy so the #9 can catch him? Too much. Thought I had my Other Than Early horse---OUT. #7 vs #10-Champagne Coolie The fastest 1st call this horse has faced is a 22.2 sitting 6th. Coupled with Line 1 -22.7-- 46.4 sitting 5th and ONLY passed 1 horse confirms his other lines as being Sustained , slow, and will stay back. This horse is going to be 8th at the break , backing up at every call,only passing tiring, quitting horses.---OUT #7 vs #11-And A Cherry Tree -[Line 1]-only shows being a gamer at much slower pace, plus its the slop. Let's confirm this line. -[Line 2]-confirms he's slow. Makes no positional moves, and sitting 6th and 6th at a 21.9, 5/10ths slower than todays pace. At a 45.4, he's going to be further back in either positions and/or lengths because Line 3 confirms this. Also confirms he's ONLY a ONE MOVE horse. Will he be close enough to capitalize with that one move, or will he be able to make one move over the #7 being 8/10th slower at the 1st two calls ? Will the #7 quit enough for this horse to catch him with one move? Looking at this horses lengths that get longer , even when he moves a position, he only picks up the pieces of badly quitting horses. Our #7 is neither a proven fighter or proven quitter. The #11 has proven that he is very good at 23.4--46.6. ---OUT So now I am only left with the #7, but have doubts about his ability to keep to the wire because the #5 has shown he will go for the lead out the gate, possibly kill hisself to do it between the break and 1st call, costing the #7 valuable energy. Although neither are proven fighters, one should default to the speed of 21.4, but the being 1st in 2 break calls by the #5 makes me lean that he is possibly a gamer at the break and first call. Since I could'nt find my Other Than Early horse and the #7 only ran 1 race and is not battle tested, I probably would pass the race and treat it like 1st time starters and maiden races, since these horses have yet to define their ceiling. VoodooFan

04-14-2008, 09:42 PM	#36
VoodooFan True Disciple of Voodoo Join Date: May 2006 Location: EarthQuake country( cali , baby) Posts: 349	Also noticed in the "Projecting Times Refresher " thread race example, you usually used the 1 to 3 most recent lines that has the 1st call projected pace to evaluate the horse, sometimes, regardless of what "other" lines are in between them that don't apply to todays pace. Those lines either confirm or deny his performance in those lines that don't apply. Another application of Stacking Pacelines. Who cares if he's successful in the past. If the last 1 to 3 times he faced todays 1st call pace and blows it, his past successes do not apply TODAY. Teaching thru example. Very, Very nice work. VoodooFan

04-14-2008, 11:06 PM	#37
emilio840 Grade 1 Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: I live in Toronto, Ontario, can Posts: 220	Hi Richie. When I look at the horses to match them up, the one that looms off the page is the #7 and the #5 would be my second choice. This race reminds me off the race in the matchup manual. (I wish all the races would be this CLEAR.) (This pattern is ingraved in my brain) emilio

04-15-2008, 03:06 AM	#38
ignacio todoberto bernal Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2008 Location: california Posts: 161	Hi Richie! Pace=21.2 3 To 4-4 Is Out 3 To 5-5 Is Out 3 To 6-6 Is Out 3 To 7-3 Is Out 7 To 8-8 Is Out 7 To 9-9 Is Out 7 To 10-10 Is Out 7 Yo 11-11 Is Out 7 Horse To Win! The 7 Will Eliminate The Other Early No.5,the 3 Horse The 's' Horse Will Not Cacht It. 'if You Feel Is Going Tobite You! Let It Bite You!' Hat's Unfamous Words! Ignacio

04-16-2008, 06:56 PM	#40
MIKE1121 Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 131	VOODOO I Just like to see how the field is going to be laid out, start to finish.Where all the horses are going to be positioned relative to one and another. This allows me to work my way from front of the pack to back in my selection. Before I will consider horses positioned 2 at first call I have to discount the leader. Before I consider horses positioned 3 at first call I have to find a reason to discount The leader and the 2nd positioned horse and so on and so on. Before I bet the last positioned horse ( a Slug ) I need to discount the entire field. Mike.