Saturday - Illinois Derby - Hawthorne

[RichieP]

Here is Saturdays Illinois Derby at Hawthorne. It is the 7th race on the card.

Will the winner run E or OTE?

What is your Early grouping?

What is your OTE grouping?

Proj pace?

FPLR?

** Note that Lrl and Gp 8f races are around 1 turn. Also the 1st fraction time on Gp8f races are VERY slow due to run up/ timer stuff**

[RichieP]

The field with tandem finishes shown

[RichieP]

next

[RichieP]

..

[Bill V.]

one of my favorite races

learning

Hi Rich This one is way too tough for me
If this is a prep race for the Kentucy Derby
maybe if the had a prep race for this race I could figure
it.

I really am stumped
No Tandams
FPLR Horse 10 SA 8.0 23 45.8 110.1 136.3

Running Styles

H1 Lagoon of Diamonds EARLY 22.6 46.4 112
H2 Smarter Than Ever EARLY 25.0 50.1 115.0
H3 Joe Vann EARLY 24.4 49.2 114.6
H4 Watch Me Go E/P 23.7 48.2 112.6
H5 Vouch For Victory E/P 25.2 50.1 115.4
H6 Sour SP
H7 The Fed Eased EARLY 24.8 49.2 113.5
H8 ZoeBea S/P
H9 Roman Flame are you kidding me ??
H10 El Grayling E/P 23.8 48 112.4
H11 South Sculptor SUS
H12 Future Empire Early 23.6 50 115.8

Projected pace
22.8 46.4 112 136.8 150.2

Race will go OTE

Matching Lines
out 1 2 5 7 9 12

Matching
I have the 8 and 11 as Early Energy
my readouts say out goes the 8

race is OTE 11 is out
10 4 6 3

win bets
10 4

Bill V.
Lake Park Georgia

[PeteC]

I’m with you Bill! I didn’t get very far with this one. 12 runners coming from 11 different tracks/surfaces!

Rich, I’m looking forward to hearing what you and everyone else see in this race.

To your questions…

My early grouping: 1,2,3,7,10,12

My OTE grouping: 4,5,6,8,9,11

FPLR: #11 comes from the fastest dirt route, but that wet-fast time at Santa Anita feels a little bogus. After that, it’s close between the 4 and the 10 (48 / 48.1 and 112.2 / 112.3)

I guess I’d use those lines for Projected Pace…48-change 112-change.

The race should be won OTE.

[SilentRun]

I am not a matcher so running the contenders through RDSS....
shows the contenders to be the top class of the field.

#4 - G2 win last, class of the field top RDSS pick.

#7 - Very competetive last race at G3, up front to stretch
RDSS has this horse as Late.

#10 Competetive to 2C last race at G2

#6 Finished 2nd last at OC50.

RDSS also listed the 8 within the top 5 but I am eliminating this horse
since it did not even win at MSW.

My picks are BTW on the 4 and 7
.
I would also consider a trifecta using the #4 horse as the key:

4/6,7,10/6,7,10
6,7,10/4/6,7,10
6,7,10/6,7,10/4

The M/L for #4 is 7/2 but I feel the public will jump on this one and
drive the odds down to about 2/1 at post.

Good Luck

Ernie

[justin13892002]

Tough race... Here's my thinking...

1- Sprinter, E, 22.6, 46.2
2- E, but too slow
3- E, 24.4, 48
4- P, 23.7, 48.2
5- Sprinter, EP, 21.9, 44.7
6- EP, 24.5, 48.5
7- E, 24.8, 49.2
8- P, 23.5, 47.3
9- Too Slow
10- S, 24.2, 46.9
11- P, 23, 45.8
12- Too Slow

Way too much early speed in here. The sprinters, 1 and 5 are also E, and EP, and will both be on or near the lead early. The 3 and 7 Need to the lead to win. Neither will get it today. The 6 is an EP style, but will not be close enough today. Looks like the race is OTE.

That leaves 4-8-10-11.

4- P, 23.7, 48.2.....4-3-2-1
8- P, 23.5, 47.3.....4-3-2-2
10- S, 24.2, 46.9....7-6-4-4
11- P, 23, 45.8......5-5-3-2


The 10 should be way too far back early, and probably out of contention.
The 8 just can't win. Always close, but just can't get to the winners circle.

That leaves 4 and 11 for Win.

[BJennet]

Since Ernie posted here as a non-matcher, just wanted to jump in to say I generally agree with his take on this race. At 7/2, the 4 looks like an overlay. And it looks like the linemaker was pretty accurate. The 7 does come up strong in the software, but looks like an NL that won't get the lead. The 10 has class but has never closed for a win, and has a relatively weak 3f. Most intriguing horse to me is the 6 - although coming out of an OC, has decent relative earnings and could hit the board.

[Bill V.]

race is OTE 11 is out
10 4 6 3