races to look at leading up to the first weekend in May

[barb craven]

Hi

Can anyone tell me what races I should be looking at leading up to the Derby?
Or a site I can go to to find this out? I want to see what horses I should be looking at.

Thanks
Barb

[Bill V.]

Hi Barb
According to a conversation I had with Doc after War Emblem won
a few years ago He suggested to focus on

The Santa Anita Derby The Blue Grass The Illinois Derby
The Wood Memorial The Florida Derby and The Louisiana Derby
of course the Arkansas Derby !!!! Go Smarty GO !!!

I might have missed some but the horses that win and place in these races
are most likely contenders

Bill

[barb craven]

Hi Bill
Thanks very much. I will look at those

Barb

[tom]

http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/2009/preps.html

List of all the major preps and charts and videos as they run.
Good section of DRF to visit.

[barb craven]

Got it. Thanks very much Tom

[reckless]

hi Barb:

The following races have served me well in getting the right horse on the first Saturday of May.

Winning the Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby have produced many Derby winners over the years. A following strong placing and effort in either the Blue Grass, Santa Anita Derby and Wood Memorial are also de facto pre-requisites in my book.

Great 3-year-olds like Smarty Jones and Afleet Alex notwithstanding, the Arkansas Derby is historically a relatively insignificant Ky Derby prep as is the Illinois Derby.

Finally, the Derby winner must be a definitive Grade I winner, while sporting at the bare minimum a Grade II win with a close Grade I placing.

The game has changed remarkably in so many ways over the years and this 'class' approach has had exceptions as well in recent years, but you'll serve yourself well by adhering to these guidelines as your starting point.

Good luck!

[Bill V.]

Hi Barb

I just want to add that what Doc wrote and mentioned to clients
was back before poly tracks
it was all dirt back then so things might be changing

GS
Bill

[barb craven]

My thanks to you Reckless and to you as always Bill. I shall now start looking at these races and entries.

Barb

[Tim Y]

Originally Posted by barb craven

Hi

Can anyone tell me what races I should be looking at leading up to the Derby?
Or a site I can go to to find this out? I want to see what horses I should be looking at.

Thanks
Barb

Really the best thing to do is COMPARE how a colt steps up between it's NEXT to last and its last prep. The DEFINITIVE preps are all a nine furlongs :Arkansas, Santa Anita and Florida Derbies, the Wood and the Blue Grass. and, to a much lesser extent, the Illinois Derby, also at nine furlongs.

IF a colt has significantly increased his % median in the last several races as the distances get longer, BEWARE, especially if it heads up into 68 + territory: ONLY the Brown one, over the last 10 years, has stepped forward off races in that range. The vast majority only project being there in the 67.2 to 67.8 range with total energies within 3 or 4 of the top.(usually around 162-165)