Picking Contenders & Pacelines

[For The Lead]

Here is a claiming race for $15,000 with a NW3L condition. ACTUALLY...it is a "C" condition. Here is the condition: Purse $23,000. For Fillies Three Years Old Or Fillies And Mares Four Years Old And Upward Which Have Never Won Three Races.
So what does this mean? It means three year olds may have won MORE THAN 3 races and still be eligible. Only the older horses are restricted to just 2 wins.
In this race, #'s 3 and 5 have already won 4 and 3 races respectively. All the rest have just 2 lifetime wins.
There are only 6 horses in the field.

#1 - last line. same class level and condition as today's race
#2 - last line. the horse is shipping in from PRX where it has been runnning in starter allowance race with a NW3L condition
#3 - last line. This is the early horse in this race. I have labeled it an "F" which means it is an early fighter. I encourage everyone reading this to look at this horse's PP's and see how this horse WILL fight for the lead from beginning to end. Although this horse is moving up in claiming price, it is also moving down in condition, from an "open" race to a NW3L or "C". This horse has already won 4 lifetime races.
#4 - no line. this horse's most recent two lines are in route races.
#5 - last line. this is another horse moving up in claiming price, but moving down in condition, from an "open" race to a NW3L or "C". This horse has won 3 lifetime races.
#6 - last line. same class level and same condition.

The winner, #3, paid $22.00.
Not bad in a 6 horse field.

[Bill V.]

Here is a race from Tampa using as best a consitent set of steps

I hope this race is helpful

Here aare my notes and since its a rather short field I will add the PP's

Tampa 2
CL16000
FLA state breds 3 and up non winner 2 life
races for less than 12500 ot counted in weights

Lifetime records
H1 1-7
H2 1-18
H3 1-10
H4 1-19
H5 1- 11
H6 1-12
H7 1-12
so everyone has just 1 win

Running styles
H1 Press2
H2 No form 30/1
H3 Early/EP6 has not passed a horse in the stetch
H4 E/P3 will break well and sit behind leader
shows 4 place finishes
H5 Early6 has passed horses on the turn
H6 No recent form 20/1
H7 EP1 will sit just behind the early pace

Pacelines
H1 Line 1 CD Plus race place finish
H2 No line
H3 Line 3 early wire to wire win
H4 Line 1 Place finish
H5 Suf Line 1 is muddy line 2 is a recent plus race
in its perferred running pattern
H6 no line
H7 line 2 is a plus race line 1 is also but line 2
is recent enough although 96 days ago
its early energy and positioning in line 2
from Mth is mor typical than the late energy
7.0 line 1 from Belmont

Contenders are 1 3 4 5 7

the 5 has the 0.0 1st fraction look at the lead it will have compared to its rivals early
Its third on he turn but being the 0.0 horse it
still has a commanding lead





here is the BLBL
Top 2 gets you a
Big winner $27.20

[Bill V.]

Horse entries conditions

[Bill V.]

5 6 7

[lone speed]

Bill....

Great analysis and thanks for putting up the pps...

Great race to learn as many races are like this scenario...

At first glance, it looks like the number #7 horse Sardegna's Gold will dominate the race...but using all the tools and screens at our disposal, we evaluate further the matchup screens and we find that #5 Bruski's Star owns the first call in the matchup...it is the second line back..but the last race was in the mud...(no absolutes)

For those who wonder, if #5 does own the first call and this is so important, then why do we not see the #5 on top of the #7 on the programs.....Is the computer program incorrect?? we might ask....

The answer is a definite no...the computer program is correct...the #5 owns the first call in this particular matchup..since in the second paceline, it chased a faster pace and in today's race and specifically in today's match up, it will not have to run as fast for its first fraction because the rest of his competition are coming from slower internal fractions...Yes, this is indeed challenging,,,,but if it was so crystal clear...there will be no double digit mutuels available...

Thanks for your time Bill...

[vderdak]

Thank you FTL, all of a sudden my contenders seem logical again. Previously way to many false contenders I was making excuses for, I've left them out today and doubled my money. Thanks again!

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by vderdak

Thank you FTL, all of a sudden my contenders seem logical again. Previously way to many false contenders I was making excuses for, I've left them out today and doubled my money. Thanks again!

Thank YOU!

That kind of feedback is very rewarding.

I wish you continued success.

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by lone speed

Bill....

For those who wonder, if #5 does own the first call and this is so important, then why do we not see the #5 on top of the #7 on the programs.....Is the computer program incorrect?? we might ask....

I’m new to RDSS, but I’ll take a shot at answering your question anyway. I’m sure if I don’t get it right, Ted will clean up the mess I make.

The third segment on the “segments screen” is a combination of total speed and 3rd fraction (TS+F3). Understandably, any early horse that fades coming down the stretch will not compare well to a horse that comes from off the early pace and makes up ground through the stretch. Obviously, the program is giving a “double dose” of third fraction, which benefits the closers and penalizes the front runners. As you pointed out, the program put the #7 horse on top of the #5 horse, which is exactly what it should have done based on the aforementioned.

Now, since the #5 was placed in second position by the program, I think Bill V is due some “props” for understanding how the programs works and rationalizing that on a level playing field the #5 horse was probably best. The results confirm his reasoning.

[lone speed]

There are two types of horses that behoove us to master……

The high energy early horse who exerts the most effort or “energy in physics” when setting the pace of the race…..Huey Mahl in “Pace is Race” wrote that the early pace has a” telescopic effect” on the rest of the race. This short sentence has such a powerful meaning in terms of understanding the concepts of energy exertions and the final time posted on the teletimer at the finish of the race…Energy used up early in the pace will not be available late in the finish of the race.

Jim “the Hat” Bradshaw understood these concepts as he was the master of the matchups and he had “voodoo powers” in predicting the winners of races. He did not need a computer program to dictate who would be the winner although he was one of the programmers of Thoromation. Many have tried to emulate him without much success as it seems that his powers were ordained from mystical forces…some have criticized him for his betting style as to say that he would bet on cockroaches for his many actions albeit in the nickel and dime varieties…..But no matter the opinions, his legacy and his unique concepts are skillful, powerful, and lasting…..race after race in our endeavor in this field, we must keep his concepts foremost in our mind and in our practice of handicapping.

The other type of horse is the high sustained horse who can overcome the pace of race with his powerful late move. This type of horse can just lay back off the pace and when the turn for home is in sight, the high sustained horse unleashes his powerful late move and motors past the front runners as if they were standing still motionless and powerless to stop his locomotive late kick thru the stretch…..High caliber stakes horse in turf races usually are blessed with these sustained move and some dirt horses like Zenyatta. (Oh now, I didn’t want to open a can of worms and start another long threads of debates….lol)

[cody]

TOTAL ENERGY

Can some one explain this to me it has me baffled,and i see it often.I always thought the faster the pace the higher the total energy,but yet I
always see races where horses run a crawling pace and there T E is much
higher.example GP R 5 the 1 horse,line 1 crawling pace high energy,line 2 faster pace low T E,which pace line do I use,I know this horse is not making the lead today.

Thanks Cody