11/17/14 MNR R#4...Practice Race

[PeteC]

Six furlongs on the dirt this coming Monday night...

[DontSayDont]

1. Hare Prize.............S.......Out to slow.. To far back
2. Distinctive Humor...EP/P..Contender....Looks solid here
3. Littlemissattitude....S.......Contender... to far off pace
4. All Smokin Mirrors...P.......Out Tandem.
5. Chuckle of the Day..P.......Out Tandem.
6. Afleet Chill..............E.......Out Tandem.
7. Pegasus Blue.........NRF.....Out No form.
8. Sweet Cat O line.....E/EP....Contender....22.4-47.0-60.0-1:13.4..(5f specialist)
9. Platinum Justice......NRF....Out No form.
10. Barb Wire Tatt......NRF....Out No form.

I see the 2 winning but am worried about the 8. 3 completes the exacta.

[jgibilaro]

5 for the win 22.0 46.1 should get an easy lead

[vderdak]

This is a pass race for me, to me there is no true early horse or horses, there are plenty of ote's which run a length or so off the pace but I would have a hard time determining who will lead, the only possible earlies are coming out of distance races and I don't think they will vie for the lead, the pace being to fast for them and the 4 and 8 don't look like they can get on top of their fractions any longer. This is the type of race I honestly can't figure out who will lead or win, I can't see it, the runners don't paint a picture for me at all.

[chuckg]

Does a horse know how far it has to run today?

Here I see 5 Earlies

2 22.8 over 5f, no 6f lines
4 22.9 over 6f
6 23.0 over 5.5f, no 6f lines
8 23.2 over 6f
10 22.8 over 6f

8 is only horse that breaks first and gets the lead. Ran 23.1 to 1st call in last 2 races. I'll use Line 7, the 6f line.

23.2 47.8 1:01.2 1:15.8

All 5 Earlies can run against that pace, making for a big pile up at the 2nd call. Only the 6 has shown that it can run out of a group. Everyone else has to run alone or against one other contender.



Keep 6 and match to OTE

1 1:15.7 to 6f in sprint, 1:15.8 to 6f in route - OUT
3 Behind 6 at Str - OUT
5 Behind 6 at Str - OUT



7 1:15.7 to 6f in route - OUT
9 23.0 47.6 in route is faster than today's projected pace. 1:15.0 to 6f in route - IN



Bet 9 to Win.

[dlivery]

1) +
2) 0
3) +
4) 0
5) +
6) 0
7) 0
8) 0
9) 0
10)0

Horses exiting from there last race and distance.

[emilio840]

i think the #9 should win this race and my 2nd choice would be the #5 horse.

emilio

[ray lopez]

This is a tough race and a pass for me.But i'll take a shot at it.
My contenders are : early : #3-#5-#8-and #9( have to project that first route line) and #6 (presser).
My projected pace is 22.2-47.2-100.2-113.3...I project the 9 having an advantage on turn time and taking that second call and the win.The 6 might catch him at the end if he falters...
#9 and 6 to win.

[mowens33]

The 5 and 2

[Bill Lyster]

I see 2-6-8 as early horses, all very slow.

I see the 5, 9, and 3 as the best OTE. In the last race tandem the 3 and 5 finished very close. It was the 5's first race over the track, yet it ran closer to the lead than the 3. todays pace could be a little slower than what it last ran against and that should help. Line 2 for the 5 is from Hawthorne and anything close to its 6 furlong adjusted time of 111.8 would cream this crowd.

The 9 could be fairly close based on its extracted 4f and 6f times, and while it has won 1 of 5 sprints, none that show, show a close up pressing trip. 9 is only one so far to be really competitive vs NW4L (but in routes)

5 to win, 2nd choice is the 3;