Travers Stakes 2015

[Ted Craven]

This could be one for the ages. Although several horses show up above American Pharoah on this BL/BL screen, I don't put too much stock in it. To Win the Travers or any high level G1 race, you should have won (and recently) high Grade 1 races! AP has done that in spades and diamonds while the others haven't (except Frosted's G1 Wood), and he has also beat over half the field before, some several times. Excepting Texas Red. It depends on trip and AP's current fitness.

I would not bet against AP based on these readouts. If compelled to bet, an Exacta Box on AP / Frosted / Texas Red provides for the possibility of an upset at the small price of possibly not breaking even on the Box if AP wins.

Should be VERY exciting!



Ted

[rog9170]

Nice Ted good choice.

[Mitch44]

Your correct Ted in reference to Amer. Ph. The other reason he is low in the readouts is that he is a very tractable horse that only does what he has to in order to win and never has seriously been challenged. Which is why he fooled me in the Derby and TC. He also may not be seriously challenged untill he meet older horses. The flip side is he hasn't had a break in training, shipped a lot and has never raced at Saratoga, all unknowns at extremely short odds.

ESP wise these are all confirmed SP & S types and the only possible one that has shown he can go with him is Upstart who may scratch. And if he does press him he has never showed he can finish good at 1 1/8 let alone at 10F, plus rumor is he may scratch. If not challenged he'll loaf on the lead and will have first run on the rest. A deadly combo.

The 4 & 7 are improving horses that could be there if Amer. Ph. is worn out ,dislikes the track etc. At this time of year you want a 3 yr. old to be improving and coming to hand. Problem is if he is over top etc. he may not even run 2nd.Small fun action bet 4& 7 over 2& 6 for ex. & enjoy the show.
Mitch44

[DocSartinLearner]

Hi, agree with rog9170 and Mitch44
In my judgment, #1 Upstart and #7 Keen Ice represent the greatest threats to the manner in which #2 American Pharoah will run this race -- and ultimately how it will unfold. If either or both force the pace, there is a solid possibility that #4 Texas Red and/or #6 Frosted will be there to pick up the pieces.

Good luck!

DSL

[The Pook]

In the MC challenge today there is a horse at PRX in the sixth who has won three in a row. The Hat once said he disregarded a horse going for his fourth. He doesn't seem to fit anyway so he is being ignored. American Pharaoh in the Travers should be disregarded?

Dare I.

Ted has shown that AP isn't atop the BLBL.

Even the great Secretariat lost occasionally. Could Texas Red be AP's Onion? Maybe worth a bet.

Pook

[Lt1]

AP wasn't on top in the Haskill either if I remember I think he was tiered 4th there also on my bl/bl. He might be ripe for an upset with all the Coast to Coast trips but this race looks just like the Haskill and if gets out in front and can coast it will be tough to beat him.
Tim

[Bill V.]

Yes Tim
I had AP tier 4 on BLBl but 3 on VDC
In the Haskell using the Preakness Pace Line

Hello from Birmingham Alabama
Bill

[Lt1]

Hi Bill how you doing?. Yes that's sound like what I had for the Haskell.
Tim

[wagercapper]

My Travers BL/BL for 2015: