Old ideas work

[Tim Y]

Every once in awhile I get energetic and start to clean out masses of paperwork I had not looked at in years. Last week, in going through some old Sartin notes I made LONG AGO, I happened on a whole arena of an idea that works, NOT too often, but the mutuels are usually enormous.

Simply stated: always consider horses coming from the fastest paced races of the entire race. THIS angle would have made you look twice at Mine That Bird in his Kentucky Derby as I recall. Dortmund Firing Line and American Pharoah had the fastest paced races coming into their Derby as well.

It worked again today in the 8th at Saratoga (July 23, 2016). I searched the BEST in the last 10 and Tale of Verve ran the fastest pace of race in his Belmont last year ranking the best of all of these. Paid double digits.

There are NOT TOO many of these, but, as I said, they pay well.

NOW if I only knew the correlation between just being IN a fast paced race and today's effort. This is much the same as my discovery that the top 4 finishers in this years Queen's Plate were also the top four Fraction ONE winners. One of these days I might figure out the reasons here other than just randomness.

[Tim Y]

Trivia today about the Sanford.

MOW's only loss was in his version of the Sanford.

Secretariat's ONLY non favored start...Linda's Chief was the favorite.
http://www.secretariat.com/past-performances/

[cigar]

Originally Posted by Tim Y

Every once in awhile I get energetic and start to clean out masses of paperwork I had not looked at in years. Last week, in going through some old Sartin notes I made LONG AGO, I happened on a whole arena of an idea that works, NOT too often, but the mutuels are usually enormous.

Simply stated: always consider horses coming from the fastest paced races of the entire race. THIS angle would have made you look twice at Mine That Bird in his Kentucky Derby as I recall. Dortmund Firing Line and American Pharoah had the fastest paced races coming into their Derby as well.

It worked again today in the 8th at Saratoga (July 23, 2016). I searched the BEST in the last 10 and Tale of Verve ran the fastest pace of race in his Belmont last year ranking the best of all of these. Paid double digits.

There are NOT TOO many of these, but, as I said, they pay well.

NOW if I only knew the correlation between just being IN a fast paced race and today's effort. This is much the same as my discovery that the top 4 finishers in this years Queen's Plate were also the top four Fraction ONE winners. One of these days I might figure out the reasons here other than just randomness.

Tim thanks for the post. Can you post the screen shots of the entries for the Saratoga race.

[Tim Y]

Originally Posted by cigar

Tim thanks for the post. Can you post the screen shots of the entries for the Saratoga race.

I don't use RDSS..use older programs

Best POR pace of race hit in the 9th on turf today as Gap Year had it and was almost top early pace,,, and this was a TURFER.

I will get back to tell you the line I used to discover this.
9/7/15 at Saratoga was the line that was both best and best early pace.

[Tim Y]

Originally Posted by Tim Y

I don't use RDSS..use older programs

Best POR pace of race hit in the 9th on turf today as Gap Year had it and was almost top early pace,,, and this was a TURFER.

I will get back to tell you the line I used to discover this.
9/7/15 at Saratoga was the line that was both best and best early pace.

10/3/14 was the top line of any of the horses in this race at Keeneland.
so BOTH the fastest line overall and the best EP.......

I am backtracking to find if there are more...Recall what was written in Handicapping Magic: turf horses do not have form cycles like dirt horses.

When Court Vision won the Breeder's Cup Mile on turf defeating Goldikova, going back to some of this races the previous season put him LOGICALLY at the wire in that race.

[Tim Y]

this is another way of finding an old TURF angle "two lines better than the field," which FUNDAMENTALLY changed my outcomes on the lawn.

[Tim Y]

I have been pondering this since yesterday and it makes sense that a horse coming form a very strong pace of race, even in defeat, carries with it a performance that his higher than average total energy....at least the competitive energy of early pace. Even the first fraction oft times.

Many a good performance is over at the 8th pole and the rider does not push the animal further so third fractions can often be (in dirt anyway) less than stellar.

[chris]

2016-07-23 14:37:56 Bet Saratoga 9 Superfecta $0.10 3 + 5 / 4 / 1 + 2 + 3 + 4 + 5 + 6 / 1 + 2 + 3 + 4 + 5 + 6 $2.40 $48.75.

Tim's observations are worth noting, and I believe are correct; it's an admirable quality to identify an opportunity, though not as rewarding as turning it into cash.

Regards,

chris

[chris]

Believe I have the wrong race! At 77 am not as focused as I used to be.

Regards,

Chris

[delayjf]

T

HIS angle would have made you look twice at Mine That Bird in his Kentucky Derby as I recall. Dortmund Firing Line and American Pharoah had the fastest paced races coming into their Derby as well.

In retrospect, regarding Mine That Bird, IMO, the FPLR angle pointing to MTB actually understated the pace of his derby prep race - as he ran against a furious wind down the backstretch that day. If you look at the replay, the flags in the infield were stiff as a board.