finished a LONG term study - Pace and Cap

Tim Y · 09-30-2016, 08:27 AM

And what do you know: earlier predictors of pace (F1, EP) show much better outcomes (on the main track) than do compounded ones (FX, SP).

Early is where the competition is and where your horse needs to be.

Lt1 · 09-30-2016, 10:19 AM

Thanks for the info Tim. I have a question. How many tracks were involved in the study and were races broken down by specific distances or just sprint and route. The reason I ask is that I believe one must know the tracks they play by dist. For example at Parx on the dirt it is true that at most dirt dists early& pressers types win most races but at 170 presser& sustain horses are winning most races. I also believe one must know the minimum 3rd fraction a horse needs to have in order to win at a particular dist. In other words one must keep records before deciding what's winning at their track or tracks and where a horse must be to win.
Tim G

Tim Y · 09-30-2016, 10:27 AM

I have YET to find any track (other than some of the old Poly's and in New Orleans) that have late moves over early ones. THAT goes against all aspects of exertional physiology.

MOST of these were done in the East, and initially separated route versus sprint but then noticed there was not much of a difference.

THE BIG SURPRISE for me was how predictive the F1 fraction was . WHO would have predicted that? THAT alone has been the source of many a very long priced longshot.

OF COURSE one needs to keep records for example Oaklawn is a bit unique but still is early/presser over early as most tracks are.

MikeB · 09-30-2016, 10:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tim Y

THE BIG SURPRISE for me was how predictive the F1 fraction was . WHO would have predicted that?

Maybe Jim "The Hat" Bradshaw?

Lt1 · 09-30-2016, 11:12 AM

Thanks for the response. I was trying to point out that one needs to be aware of what's happening at their track at a particular dist and a particular point in time and that record keeping is essential. We have all seen that a track can change overnight due to weather or track work, Even on early dominated tracks the matchup of horses in a race can and does effect the outcome. Each of us must be prepared to react to what's going on today. If off the pace horses are winning today in makes no sense to bet early types even though our model or profile tells us there supposed to. Most times this change is short lived and the preferred running style take over again but until it does be prepared to capitalize on what's happening now.
Tim G

Lt1 · 09-30-2016, 01:06 PM

Jimmy stated the race doesn't start at the 2nd call nor does it end at the 2nd call.
Tim G

Tim Y · 09-30-2016, 07:18 PM

the "off the pace " horses are not mostly true energy distribution CLOSERS but they are merely passing collapsing early pace...other wise their e/l would not match the track standards.

I HAVE NEVER DOCUMENTED a Late bias in over 35 years in the Sartin methodology..NEVER

Tim Y · 09-30-2016, 07:30 PM

One of the classic findings (and I need to reiterate this was about HORSES that hit the board, NOT just winners) was the variability of the final fractions and DISMISSING races when the early pace of race was slow (THAT always gives the 3rd fraction a relative BOOST)

SP numbers varied FAR MORE OFTEN than a horse's early proclivities.

09-30-2016, 08:27 AM	#1
Tim Y turf historian Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 6,455	finished a LONG term study And what do you know: earlier predictors of pace (F1, EP) show much better outcomes (on the main track) than do compounded ones (FX, SP). Early is where the competition is and where your horse needs to be. __________________ Albert Einstein:"The monotony and solitude of a quiet life stimulates the creative mind."

09-30-2016, 10:27 AM	#3
Tim Y turf historian Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 6,455	I have YET to find any track (other than some of the old Poly's and in New Orleans) that have late moves over early ones. THAT goes against all aspects of exertional physiology. MOST of these were done in the East, and initially separated route versus sprint but then noticed there was not much of a difference. THE BIG SURPRISE for me was how predictive the F1 fraction was . WHO would have predicted that? THAT alone has been the source of many a very long priced longshot. OF COURSE one needs to keep records for example Oaklawn is a bit unique but still is early/presser over early as most tracks are. __________________ Albert Einstein:"The monotony and solitude of a quiet life stimulates the creative mind." Last edited by Tim Y; 09-30-2016 at 10:39 AM.

09-30-2016, 07:18 PM	#7
Tim Y turf historian Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 6,455	the "off the pace " horses are not mostly true energy distribution CLOSERS but they are merely passing collapsing early pace...other wise their e/l would not match the track standards. I HAVE NEVER DOCUMENTED a Late bias in over 35 years in the Sartin methodology..NEVER __________________ Albert Einstein:"The monotony and solitude of a quiet life stimulates the creative mind." Last edited by Tim Y; 09-30-2016 at 07:25 PM.

09-30-2016, 07:30 PM	#8
Tim Y turf historian Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 6,455	One of the classic findings (and I need to reiterate this was about HORSES that hit the board, NOT just winners) was the variability of the final fractions and DISMISSING races when the early pace of race was slow (THAT always gives the 3rd fraction a relative BOOST) SP numbers varied FAR MORE OFTEN than a horse's early proclivities. __________________ Albert Einstein:"The monotony and solitude of a quiet life stimulates the creative mind."

09-30-2016, 10:19 AM	#2
Lt1 Grade 1 Join Date: Apr 2012 Location: Valley Stream NY Posts: 9,152	Thanks for the info Tim. I have a question. How many tracks were involved in the study and were races broken down by specific distances or just sprint and route. The reason I ask is that I believe one must know the tracks they play by dist. For example at Parx on the dirt it is true that at most dirt dists early& pressers types win most races but at 170 presser& sustain horses are winning most races. I also believe one must know the minimum 3rd fraction a horse needs to have in order to win at a particular dist. In other words one must keep records before deciding what's winning at their track or tracks and where a horse must be to win. Tim G

09-30-2016, 11:12 AM	#5
Lt1 Grade 1 Join Date: Apr 2012 Location: Valley Stream NY Posts: 9,152	Thanks for the response. I was trying to point out that one needs to be aware of what's happening at their track at a particular dist and a particular point in time and that record keeping is essential. We have all seen that a track can change overnight due to weather or track work, Even on early dominated tracks the matchup of horses in a race can and does effect the outcome. Each of us must be prepared to react to what's going on today. If off the pace horses are winning today in makes no sense to bet early types even though our model or profile tells us there supposed to. Most times this change is short lived and the preferred running style take over again but until it does be prepared to capitalize on what's happening now. Tim G

09-30-2016, 01:06 PM	#6
Lt1 Grade 1 Join Date: Apr 2012 Location: Valley Stream NY Posts: 9,152	Jimmy stated the race doesn't start at the 2nd call nor does it end at the 2nd call. Tim G