snuck under the radar? - Pace and Cap

tompkins · 05-04-2006, 03:25 PM

thought this one looked TOO good. Met stiff competititon last and was exposed.

tompkins · 05-04-2006, 03:27 PM

variants off the beaten path in those two standout attempts. check it out using F2

Dap Daddi · 05-04-2006, 03:34 PM

Tompkins:

The true story on this one is that Jockey was only asked to finish in the top three or four by trainer in the Hawthorne Derby. If one goes back and reviews the entire race, this horse just coasted, he was not abused nor hit at anytime in the stretch. The horse that ran second was all out (Mister Triester) it cost him in the Derby Trials. Read the horse comments along side his last race. ("Between-oo winning bid") They were'nt trying to use this horse in my opinion. He lost secon by 3/4 of a length to Mister Triester. Move him up to second in that race and he comes further into the Screen. Thank you so much, I am totally convinced that this horse EXPLODES on Saturday.

Dap!

Ted Craven · 05-04-2006, 04:26 PM

Cause To Believe's last was a tandem with Sweetnorthern Saint. Here's the video: Illinois Derby (needs IE, not Firefox), and he was not abused at all. I'd like to stick with up close finishes in G1 and G2 Stakes, so if we can find good excuses from that last, or signs of improvement, or a reason to rate him off the Cal Derby figures (GG) in lieu of the last, he could fit the typical bill of KY Derby 'anti-favourite'. Given him Sweet's beaten lengths (tandem reversal), or half that, or jut say he can do better and has proven it. His GG figs could even be deprecated and he's still at least an in-the-money horse at surely huge odds.

??

Ted

P.S. Still in my investigation stage...

Houndog · 05-04-2006, 04:44 PM

Dap, I re-worked the race using Cause to Believe's 3rd race back. I used THOROMATION because data entry and projections are easier than ENERGY. Cause to Believe comes up second behind Brother Derek in the THOROMATION screen. Also I believe the Hawthorne surface has been very slow this year, so a 149.4 timing is very good. Just by comparison I worked a race at Churchill Downs where the winner Easy Grades came out of a race from Hawthorne where he was clocked at 149.3, but this was at a mile and one-sixtenth. He came back to win at Churchill at the same distance with a final time of 146.2 a 3 second difference. This confirms to me that the Hawthorne surface has been really slow this year.

At 50-1 opening line this horse is worth a bet, also this timing at Hawthorne makes SweetNorthernSaint look very good also. Thanks Dap and Tomkins for pointing this horse out to me. I am always glad to get pointers like this which I might have missed otherwise.

Houndog · 05-04-2006, 04:50 PM

Dap, I also reviewed Cause to Believe's California Derby video in which Sinister Minister was loose on the lead and Cause to Believe caught him in the stretch and wins by 4 lengths.

Ted Craven · 05-04-2006, 06:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Houndog

Dap, I also reviewed Cause to Believe's California Derby video in which Sinister Minister was loose on the lead and Cause to Believe caught him in the stretch and wins by 4 lengths.

Here's that Video: 11Mar06 8GG (California Derby).

Ted

shoeless · 05-04-2006, 08:47 PM

Dap,I think you will have a hard time convincing Tompkins about that jockey not trying as hard as he can.Jeff

tompkins · 05-04-2006, 09:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by shoeless

Dap,I think you will have a hard time convincing Tompkins about that jockey not trying as hard as he can.

since the COLT and not the rider was running it is a moot point

Houndog · 05-05-2006, 12:37 PM

It could be that Cause To Believe's Illinois Derby was not bad, but SweetNorthernSaint's race was that good. Will see Saturday.

05-04-2006, 03:25 PM	#1
tompkins Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 708	snuck under the radar? thought this one looked TOO good. Met stiff competititon last and was exposed. Attached Images __________________ velocititian

05-04-2006, 03:27 PM	#2
tompkins Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 708	the real answer variants off the beaten path in those two standout attempts. check it out using F2 __________________ velocititian

05-04-2006, 04:26 PM	#4
Ted Craven Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada Posts: 9,249	Cause To Believe's last was a tandem with Sweetnorthern Saint. Here's the video: Illinois Derby (needs IE, not Firefox), and he was not abused at all. I'd like to stick with up close finishes in G1 and G2 Stakes, so if we can find good excuses from that last, or signs of improvement, or a reason to rate him off the Cal Derby figures (GG) in lieu of the last, he could fit the typical bill of KY Derby 'anti-favourite'. Given him Sweet's beaten lengths (tandem reversal), or half that, or jut say he can do better and has proven it. His GG figs could even be deprecated and he's still at least an in-the-money horse at surely huge odds. ?? Ted P.S. Still in my investigation stage... Attached Images __________________ RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™ Last edited by Ted Craven; 05-04-2006 at 04:30 PM.

05-04-2006, 03:34 PM	#3
Dap Daddi Dap Daddi Join Date: Mar 2006 Location: Minneapolis Posts: 138	Tompkins: The true story on this one is that Jockey was only asked to finish in the top three or four by trainer in the Hawthorne Derby. If one goes back and reviews the entire race, this horse just coasted, he was not abused nor hit at anytime in the stretch. The horse that ran second was all out (Mister Triester) it cost him in the Derby Trials. Read the horse comments along side his last race. ("Between-oo winning bid") They were'nt trying to use this horse in my opinion. He lost secon by 3/4 of a length to Mister Triester. Move him up to second in that race and he comes further into the Screen. Thank you so much, I am totally convinced that this horse EXPLODES on Saturday. Dap!

05-04-2006, 04:44 PM	#5
Houndog Grade 1 Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 1,258	Dap, I re-worked the race using Cause to Believe's 3rd race back. I used THOROMATION because data entry and projections are easier than ENERGY. Cause to Believe comes up second behind Brother Derek in the THOROMATION screen. Also I believe the Hawthorne surface has been very slow this year, so a 149.4 timing is very good. Just by comparison I worked a race at Churchill Downs where the winner Easy Grades came out of a race from Hawthorne where he was clocked at 149.3, but this was at a mile and one-sixtenth. He came back to win at Churchill at the same distance with a final time of 146.2 a 3 second difference. This confirms to me that the Hawthorne surface has been really slow this year. At 50-1 opening line this horse is worth a bet, also this timing at Hawthorne makes SweetNorthernSaint look very good also. Thanks Dap and Tomkins for pointing this horse out to me. I am always glad to get pointers like this which I might have missed otherwise.

05-04-2006, 04:50 PM	#6
Houndog Grade 1 Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 1,258	Dap, I also reviewed Cause to Believe's California Derby video in which Sinister Minister was loose on the lead and Cause to Believe caught him in the stretch and wins by 4 lengths.

05-04-2006, 08:47 PM	#8
shoeless Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,640	Dap,I think you will have a hard time convincing Tompkins about that jockey not trying as hard as he can.Jeff

05-05-2006, 12:37 PM	#10
Houndog Grade 1 Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 1,258	It could be that Cause To Believe's Illinois Derby was not bad, but SweetNorthernSaint's race was that good. Will see Saturday.