Workout Frequency: FTS, Maidens versus Non Maidens

[omar]

The general rule of thumb for measuring Form is this: with Maidens if they ran a race within 17 days of today's race, just ACCEPT their Form and with Non-Maidens the magic # is 21 days. FTS HAVE NO RECENCY AND SO THE ONLY WAY WE CAN MEASURE THEM IS BY THE FREQUENCY OF THEIR WORKOUTS.
For Maiden FTS the criteria has been 1F/day but .9F/day is acceptable.
For example, if today's race is 5/23 and the horse shows 2 w/o's: 5/19 5F and 5/13 5F comes out to 10F in 10 days. A "purest" might go back to 5/6 and require 17F/day. Well let's say the horse only shows 2 works or the next work back is 5/6 at 4F, then that comes out to 14F/17Days. Well i'm not a purest. I'm looking to play more races,not less. To me 10F/10D tells me the horse is dead fit and i'm using him in my exotics. You will have to make your own determinations on this. Even better, suppose instead of 5/6 it was 5/1. Now that comes out to 10F/17D. Again i'm not a purest. I will consider him fit and use him. I don't want to toss a horse on a technicality that can cost me a good exacta or triple.
Maidens that have not raced within 18-23 days require just 1 w/o, while 24-30 days require 2 w/o's to accept horse's current form.
Other ways to measure a MAIDEN FTS as a contender would be a High "ROI" trainer that does good with them like a Wesley Ward. You should know your local trainers and their %roi w/FTS/maidens; Jockey/trainer combos, high %roi jockeys. Also class drops w/positive jockey switch or new found early speed are positive form signs with maidens. Also improved "ability time" ( F2 added back to the 2nd call). A NEGATIVE FORM SIGN with maidens would be 3 gate works in the a.m. means gate problems with the horse in the p.m.
With NON-MAIDENS or "winners" the horse only requires 2/3F/day.I know I said 1/2 earlier but i re-checked with Dick Mitchell and he says at least 2/3F/day.14F/20 days would be good. With non-maidens layoffs come in 2 varieties 21-30 days "non severe", maybe the trainer couldn't find a race for the horse, and 31-60 days "severe" but could be a function of CLASS and TRAINER PATTERNS. For a low level claimer- severe but for a graded stakes horse it could be normal. Now with "Layoff" horses I TREAT THEM as FTS. You ask yourself this question: how did the horse respond to similar layoffs? If the horse ran well in the past then accept his current form, if not then predict poor. With young horses with 10 starts or less, how did the horse run as a FTS. If he ran good accept his form, if not then predict poor again. But again you still want to go back 20 days and prefer the horses that show that 2/3F per day and with layoff horses that don't show similar layoffs in their pp's, rely on that 2/3F/ day to qualify. But with me, make no mistake if the horse shows only 2 works in 20 days and the 2nd one was 12 days ago and the horse showed at least 8F/ 12 days, i would qualify the horse whereas a "purist" might want to see 14F. Your just gonna see what works best for you. Keep records for yourself and then you be the judge.
I hope this clears things up for some people. Later. Omar.