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Old 11-18-2017, 11:34 AM   #1
rmath
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Interesting Survey

Two of my friends , LT1 and Mitch44 told me how they pick their contenders.
I took LT.s advice and ran my own survey.
Here are the results: Using only Profit Line and Prime Power. Contenders are any horses that are in the top 5 of either one.

360 race study
335 wins 93%
297 exactas 82.5%

This survey was only run on dirt races that had at least 8 betting interests at the following distances: 5.5, 6 ,mile, 1mi and 70 yards and 8.5f.
No maiden races or 2yr. old races were included.

I was very delighted with these results.
I found that when only these contenders were run thru RDSS2 that most winners were in the Top 3 RX3 rating.
Good luck to anyone interested in checking out these two ratings for contender selection.
rmath
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Old 11-18-2017, 11:52 AM   #2
Lt1
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Nice results Rich. Based on your selectivity of races your win results are a little higher then mine. I range between 85 to 90 % of winners in the top 5 depending on cycles. In my opinion a good starting point before going to RDSS. As always folks should do their own surveys rather then accept blindly the work of others. As my signature suggest trust but verify.
Tim
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Old 11-18-2017, 12:07 PM   #3
rmath
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Thanks LT.

I could not agree more. Nothing should never be taken at face value with out checking it out yourself.
I thank you and Mitch for suggesting this to me.
Thank you my friends.
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Old 11-18-2017, 12:32 PM   #4
Bill V.
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Rmath

Hi Richard

Here are the factors I focus on .
These figures come from races only handicapped between 10/13/17 and 11/17/17
My study is 428 races , All Distance, Surfaces Track Condition Race Types.
EVERY race and every horse with a pace line is recorded.
Everything from a 5 furlong 2 year old maiden race at DED or CT to the Breeders Cup $600000 classic
The total pace lines I have recorded is 3174

Line selection is fully automatic RDSS/ default settings +15/-15 DTV -TV
All pace lines are exactly what RDSS selected being the best of the last 3 persceptor. I have not changed a single pace line .
RDSS2.1 auto paceline auto select will only select line 1,2 or 3

My records show
Top 4 BLBL 75%
Top 4 VDC 77%
Top 4 Primary 74%
Top 4 Supp 72%
Top 4 TPR 74%

Also some non Sartin based stats
Top 4 Profit Line 77%
Top 4 public win odds 84%
Top 4 Tote X 1 72%
Top 4 Tote x 2 PW% 81%
Top RX 1 75%
Top RX2 78%
Top RX3 80%

Last edited by Bill V.; 11-18-2017 at 12:36 PM.
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Old 11-18-2017, 12:44 PM   #5
Lt1
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Good stats Bill
Tim
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Old 11-18-2017, 12:55 PM   #6
Mitch44
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Richie I'm not surprised at all. I've been using them for contenders for more than 15 years and their an excellent starting point for contenders. I don't accept them blindly as there is much more to handicapping a race but they are an excellent starting point or for getting you out of the starting blocks.


In FU # 77 page 22 " Total Energy of 1,000 races the winner ranked in the top 5 98%, and the top 3 75%, another excellent starting point. It should be noted that anytime one eliminates risky races such as 2 yr olds ,MSW some turf etc. any percentage will climb higher. Note: That's Tot. Energy not TPR. Tot En. considers all 3 Fr's and is a more accurate Factor while TPR is definitely no slacker.

Additionally I believe if a user was to eliminate from the Primary Line score or the combination of Primary Line score in conjunction with BLBL it'll beat the stats noted above with Total Energy. And probably beat the stats for top 3. That of course is putting in all horses and picking an appropriate pace line which one would have to do to get the top 5 Tot. Energy . The primary Line score and BLBL are much more powerful factors.


I've always had a hard time understanding why members cannot get the correct contenders or pick appropriate / correct pace lines. Sure a few lines are tricky or may require a little more expertise but their the exception and not the norm.

The problem with most user is in not following Sartin guidelines and keeping records on this stuff along without using a consistent approach. A proven consistent approach! And if your lazy at least follow the proven Sartin guidelines. READ THOSE recommended FOLLOW UP'S.
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Old 11-18-2017, 01:38 PM   #7
Bill V.
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Mitch

Hello Mitch

In the follow up study That 95% total energy percentage in 1000 races
is after eliminating to the top 5 Primary line score .
So another way Doc could have written that was, in 1000 races
where we eliminated/hid to contenders to only the top 5 primary line score
and top 5 total energy horses, we only missed the winner 5%
I would guess these 1000 races were only handicapped by Doc, clients or staff who only used the best of the last 3 comparable -speed ratings
No races were used with more than 1 first time starter or horses with no North America pace lines.

I will look up in my stats the percentage of total energy top 4 winners
but my stats are based on every horse, - no eliminations -no hides

Good Skill
Bill
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Old 11-19-2017, 04:05 PM   #8
Brian Chamberlain
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Bill, hope you now how much your posts are appreciated. Very useful stuff.
Take care of yourself,
Brian
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Old 11-20-2017, 04:24 PM   #9
dogkatcher
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rmath, please advise if the Prime Number is offered in RDSS or is it possibly the Prime Bris number.

There is also a top 5 ranking of (??) that is shown below the Profit Line indicator of each horse in RDSS . I've been unable to correlate it in my searches, but I've been lost many times before.

All clues would be greatly appreciated, thanks for your contributions to all here.

John
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Old 11-20-2017, 04:39 PM   #10
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Hi John. The Bris prime power numbers are not in RDSS. They are found in Bris pps. The profit top 5 are the ones you see in RDSS with the RX 3 line score. Hope that helps.
Tim
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