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Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ...

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Old 11-18-2017, 04:34 PM   #1
Lt1
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Horses moving up after a loss

A while back I was listening to the Tom Brohamer tapes and during the contender selection part Tom stated that although horses moving up in class were not automatic throw outs they were not a good betting situation. I finally got around to doing a survey on 100 such animals and here are the results

Horses wins places shows off board
100 13 8 3 76
To me this survey, based on the percentages, makes this type of horse a throw out in my book.
Wishing good skill to all.
Tim
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Old 11-18-2017, 05:10 PM   #2
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Interesting

LT.1 These guide lines of Tom Brohammer are still just as effective today as they were 30 years ago .
thanks for the update.
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Old 11-18-2017, 05:30 PM   #3
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Your right Rich. That's why I do these type of surveys to show people especially newer members that we have very valuable info in the library section not only the Follow Up but in the audio and video sections. Some of these are almost like attending a seminar which both you and I were fortunate to attend. Straight from the horses mouth so to speak.
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Old 11-18-2017, 06:24 PM   #4
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Excellent work Tim. Those old Master's on those tapes and vid. new what they were talking about. Thanks for sharing.
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Old 11-18-2017, 08:43 PM   #5
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thanks Tim

Knowing stats about horses off over 90 days and now horses moving up after a layoff is really helpful, and horses running the third race after a long layoff.

If I am pretty sure I have the winner in my top 4 RX3 over 80%
being able to toss any horse in that mix with these two factors really will help the win percentages


Thanks for sharing your research

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Old 11-19-2017, 08:29 AM   #6
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HI Tim
13% winners isn't by itself a toss for me IF a good price is involved with these winners. They might have other things going for them etc that might make them appealing at times.

Would you happen to have the win prices on these guys??

Thank you for the hard work in gathering all this BTW!
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Old 11-19-2017, 09:42 AM   #7
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Hi Rich how are you doing. Sorry but wasn't looking at the prices but just trying to see percentage wise what these horses did. Price may give one reason to give it a second look just as long we remember that in general they are poor win bets.
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Old 11-19-2017, 11:25 AM   #8
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I agree Rich that you need to be rewarded for the risk involved. Those 13 winners had to have something going for them that the others didn't. Perhaps improvement from a change. Claiming trainers make moves like this and win lots of races doing it. Perhaps most of those 13 wins fell in that category.


Any stat needs to be put in the context of the whole or in other words the field itself.


Whether 90 day horses or these types the best way to do that is to do an analysis of each horse. Stats can be very tricky. A horse in a NW2L that is 0 for 15 isn't a good candidate to win however if all the horses have similar records it has a shot to break the barrier. Of course in a field like that recent form takes on even more importance and horses that are 0 for 5 have a slight edge but they maybe a future 0 for 15 horse too.


Horses that haven't disgraced themselves at the distance and surface are the better bets. A horse maybe 0 for 30 but that 15 or 30 may not have come from todays conditions.


Look at the whole not just a single element. Analyze the race and all the horses if your betting serious money. Really place emphasis on your contenders. No program is a black box and can only perform to what it's program to do. Its probably impossible to program the complete human brain into a CP that will answer the many situations that occur. Some situations come up very frequently such as layoffs, step ups etc.


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Last edited by Mitch44; 11-19-2017 at 11:27 AM.
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Old 11-19-2017, 11:45 AM   #9
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Side Note

Just a side note. One of my favorite winter tracks opens this sat. Tampa Bay Downs. Guess I am a little bias being that I live in Largo Fl. Love the stats you guys are giving out excellent job by all.

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Old 11-19-2017, 12:21 PM   #10
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BTW LT1 and I win those NW2L races just like some others. Don't take my previous post that I'm contradicting his stats. I'm aware of those kind of stats also, just giving you some questions to ask , food for thought and to get you away from black box handicapping.


You have to do the work and collecting the data to a specific problem is easy.
Whenever I'm in doubt I consider it an unknown factor. If after analyzing the horse and the race as a whole I'm still in doubt I reply on the stats or pass the race.


An old axiom that's true is horses going up in class after a maiden win their true value is about 1/2 their MC win. That helps me to determine if its properly placed today or a stat throw out. Do the work to improve your game , as handicappers we run into the same problems all the time . Solve the problem as LT1 has done here today. When in doubt play the percentages or pass.
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