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07122020, 05:34 PM  #1 
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Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 8,643

Rmath's 4factor Method  'from the top'
I created this Topic to document Rmath's (Richard M) 4factor method (or '4number'  never heard him use a different name for it). They constitute the central set of ranks on the RDSS Rx screen.
Rmath has discussed this a number of times but I wanted to restate the Guidelines and usage for newcomers, and everyone really. I am also doing this as a personal exercise in my best understanding and usage of what he does. This is how I tend to use RDSS to handicap. This first post will be updated periodically as Rmath corrects our understanding or clarifies nuances to what he actually does. Discussion and elaboration follows this opening post. Rmath has agreed that I (or someone helping me) will document his use of this method by capturing his occasional Selections (e.g. Gulfstream) in an Excel spreadsheet which will be maintained here. He says he typically uses this method for Win or horizontal wagers (Doubles, Picks 3,4,5,6). The spreadsheet will help to document the effectiveness of the method, it's hit rate and ROI. I'll start this next week, but I wanted to create a new Thread for it now. Thanks Rmath for helping us understand the details behind your method. This will also help me add touches to RDSS to help make this method most usable. This set of 4 factors (VDC, CSR, BRIS ProfitLine/PL, BRIS Prime Power/BPP) are some of the components of Rx3 though not all of them (and not BPP), so there will often be a high correlation, though not perfect. This discussion will focus not on Rx3, but on these 4 factors. They might evolve into a new composite factor (e.g. 'Rx4') but not sure. Ted
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RDSS  Racing Decision Support System™ Last edited by Ted Craven; 06072022 at 06:44 PM. 
07122020, 05:38 PM  #2 
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Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
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Primary use of this Method
This method is primarily used to get horses who can WIN, and thus is most useful in horizontal betting: Doubles, Pick3,4,5,6 wagers. That said, over the years we have certainly accumulated significant vertical wager success, though finding the Place horse often requires some different analysis (see Sartin's 55% Solution Manual). For this discussion, we'll be focusing on horizontal wagers and making sure we have horses who can Win (only). The 4 Factors The 4 Factors used in this method are all found grouped together on the Rx+ screen and also on the Entries screen. They are: VDC (Velocity relative to Deceleration) CSR (Composite Speed Rating) PL (BRIS Profit Line) BPP (BRIS Prime Power) Configuration Settings To replicate Selections by Rmath, I will be using the same Configuration Settings he uses, which are different from the Default settings. The differences are: 1. 100% DTV (default = 50%) 2. Min and Max DTV values to use are 25 to +25 (default = 15 to +15) Despite these settings are a bit different from Default, and from the ones I use, for complete documentation of the way Rmath does things, we'll be using these settings. I suspect that in the long run that using any coherent set of Settings (e.g. the Defaults) will result in similar aggregate success even if individual races differ in Contenders or their ranking. I look forward to proving or disproving that idea. Paceline Selection For the most part, use the software Default Paceline Selection Strategy ('Best of Last 3 Perceptor ratings, comparable Distance and Surface') .
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RDSS  Racing Decision Support System™ Last edited by Ted Craven; 08222020 at 06:19 PM. Reason: corrected DTV range to 25 ... +25 
07122020, 05:39 PM  #3 
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Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 8,643

Identifying Contenders
Identifying Contenders
The following is an elaboration of the basis of the 4 Factor method posted by Rmath later in this Thread, here. 0. Proceed to the Rx+ Analysis screen. 1. Identify all horses with a rank 5 or better in EITHER ProfitLine or BRIS Prime Power (PL or BPP). RDSS does not show ranks which are higher than 5th, so you could also say find the PL or BPP horses with a rank. According to Rmath's research, these horses win over 90% of all races. These will be considered the 'primary contenders'. There are strategies to bet horses without either of these ranks (often at longer prices) which will be discussed later. NOTE: In the current RDSS version 2.1.049.11, for races with Coupled Entries (i.e. 1 and 1A or 2 and 2B etc), the PL and BPP are stated incorrectly (fixed in next version). In these cases, consult TwinSpires directly (if you can) to get the ratings. In this race, the primary contenders are 54763 (all happen to have BOTH PL and BPP ratings). The 218 are not primary contenders because they have neither PL or BPP ratings (i.e. ratings 5th or better). Another example: in this race, the primary contenders are 64212511. All have at least a PL OR a BPP rating 5th or better. The rest have neither and are not primary contenders. 2. Of these primary contenders identified in Step 1, horses with all 4 Factors are rated higher than those with 3 Factors, which are rated higher than those with 2 Factors which are rated higher than those with only 1 Factor. Beginning with horses which have the most factors (e.g. 4 factors) start with double 1s (11) then continue with single 1s. Break ties as follows: 11 in PL/BPP are rated higher than 11 in VDC/CSR, which are rated than 11 in CSR/PL, which are rated higher than 11 in VDC/BPP or VDC/PL or CSR/BPP. In other words, 11s involving adjacent factors are ranked higher than 11s in nonadjacent factors (that's why the factors are laid out that way). In the PRX Race 6 above example, the #2 is clearly top ranked because it has (at least) a 11 in PL/BPP, in fact a triple 1 (111). In the PRX Race 5 above example, both the #5 and #4 have 2 1s but the #4 has 2 adjacent 1s in VDC/CSR (1134) while the #5's 1s are nonadjacent VDC/BPP (1221). Thus the #4 rates higher than the #5. Moving on from 11s, the #3 horse has a single 1  PL (5312) and ranks behind the #4 and #5. The remaining primary contender with all 4 factors in the #6 (3443) so it is the next horse. So far, for the PRX Race 5 example, among the horses with all 4 factors we have 4536 = 4 of the 5 primary contenders. In the PRX Race 6 example, the other 2 4 Factor horses (after the topranked #2) are the #6 and #12. The #6 has a 1 in VDC (1255) and so ranks higher than the #12 which has no 1s. Among the horses with all 4 factors, the order is 2612 (moving from most 1s to least 1s). 3. Move on with identifying (among the primary contenders from Point #1  those with at least a PL or BPP rank 5th or better) 3 factor, 2 factor and 1 factor horses. Each descending number of factors will produce fewer winners though generally at higher odds. Rounding out the PRX Race 5 example, the remaining primary contender is the #7 which has 3 factors (X555). It ranks after all the others. Thus the Top 5 4Factor ranks from this race are 45367. In the PRX Race 6 example above, 2 horses have 3 factors: the #5 (344X) and #11 (5X24). In my understanding these are basically a tie for 4th/5th rank. If pressed (or if writing a software algorithm) I might give slightly extra weight to the #11 having BOTH PL and BPP ranks and  between the 2 horses  having the lone #2 rank (PL). Thus this race Top 5 4Factor ranks are 261211/5. Beyond 3Factor horses, 2 and 1factor horses don't often appear in the Top 5, though can be bet in different ways as longshots in certain circumstances which will be discussed later. Primary contender horses with 3 or 4 factors (i.e. among those which either PL or BPP ranked 5th or better) account for slightly more than 80% of winners according to Rmath's stats. 2 and 1 Factor horses account for another 15% (= ~95%) Rounding out the PRX Race 6 example, the #3 is the final primary contender and has 1 factor BPP (XXX3). Interestingly, it is ranked 3rd on Rx3 due to its CR+ and EL+ ratings (both components of Rx3). Also interesting, the #7 with a 4 CSR (X4XX) while not a primary contender (no PL or BPP rating) ranks 2nd on Rx3 due to an even better CR+ rating. (The #7 finished 2nd at 7.40, 5th ranked closing odds). These examples of longshot candidates will again be dealt with separately as they offer profit potential (though which profit you could spend a lot of in pursuit). PRX Race 6 finished 672 (4 factor order: 261211/5) PRX Race 5 finished 534 (4factor order: 45367) ($2 Exacta prices) Post in progress (more examples to follow) ...
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RDSS  Racing Decision Support System™ Last edited by Ted Craven; 08122020 at 02:39 PM. 
07122020, 06:30 PM  #4 
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Location: Bobcaygeon,On,Canada
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Good to have it up here for all to see. A few of us have been using it with Dick's guidance for several years now. Thanks Ted and Dick.
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Listen...Learn...Stay Safe. Last edited by barb craven; 07122020 at 06:33 PM. Reason: changes 
07132020, 12:18 PM  #5 
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Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,676

Thanks
Thanks Barb and Ted.
My only goal in sharing my findings was ( is ) to help anyone to become a better handicapper. I believe that is what Doc Sartin wanted. Rmath 
07202020, 06:18 PM  #6 
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Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 8,643

Folks, I had intended to start documenting Dick's method last week, for commentary, but other emergency circumstances intervened! Sorry for the delay.
I am taking a few days off this week, back on Saturday. I'll resume that work when I get back. Of course, if Dick or anyone wants to post stuff, of course they should. I wanted to document it in as illustrated and stepbystep a fashion as I could, for my own and for others' benefit. Cheers! Ted
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07312020, 12:03 PM  #7 
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Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf  "...at Del Mar"
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OKay, we are awaiting the good word. Trying to decifer what he means by his A, B and C horses.
Hope the explanation happens soon. Bill 
07312020, 12:43 PM  #8 
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Location: central islip ny
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For those who are interested, Steve Crist has a solid explanation of a,b,c,x horses in his book betting exotics.
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Check out my daily picks for Saratoga in the Saratoga Special http://www.thisishorseracing.com 
07312020, 01:30 PM  #9 
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Posts: 1,676

Abc
Bill, I use the A B C designation for the rankings I give to each contender much like Rdiam does.
A = Top or First B= second rank C= third ranked Hope this explains what you asked. Rmath 
08032020, 02:26 PM  #10 
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Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf  "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,393

Well, I sorta had that part of it figured out.
What factors define a horse labeled "A", "B", "C" etc. I thought that was part of the method that was to come in greater detail. If I have missed your earlier explanations Dick, could you post a link to where that info has been explained? Always looking forward to find the better mouse trap. Thanks, Bill 
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