Knowing when and how to toss the race favorite by reading the tote board - Pace and Cap

omar · 10-20-2022, 06:51 PM

* NO HANDICAPPING INVOLVED.
All one has to do is 2 things:
a) Identify the first 2-3 race choices; and
b) check the correlations between the exacta prices and the tote odds.

Someone once said the truth of mathematics is absolute, I think I heard or read that somewhere before. This method I'm going to show you I perfected in the late 70's. For 2 years I did nothing but chart the exactas and doubles at Aqu & Bel- no handicapping PERIOD. Back then all I had to work with was the tv monitors, so I had to write fast. Today I have the luxury of printing out all the exactas at any point in time, 12 horse field, no problem. To the best of my knowledge only 1 other person did what I was doing, a man called The Baron whom I never met. He was in the clubhouse, I stayed in the grandstand. Back then they called me Clipboard. I needed something to write on so I used a clipboard with my checkerboard squared paper.
Now you can do this method by identifying the winner or key horse to use in exotics also.
I recommend doing this with 3-4 minutes to post because just like tote odds, exacta prices will change also. For my purposes here I'm using the final screen odds and prices.
This example race is from MNR 10-17-22, race 4.
You'll notice the favorite[#1] is 1-2 and 2nd choice#2] is 2-1. The #4 was a distant 3rd choice at 9-1.
Now look at the exacta prices. So the #2 is 4x the price of the #1 on the board but only 1.5x in the exactas. Note how close the 1-4/4-1 combinations are in the exactas but not so with the 2-4/4-2 combos. THAT'S IT, THAT'S ALL U NEED TO KNOW to toss the #1 as the winner! Now you can take it a step further. Check out the exacta prices #1 w/ 3-4-8 and the #2 w/3-4-8. when checking the 3-4 and 4-8 combos you'll see the closeness of the later, not so with 3-4. Toss the #3. Also the 1-8/8-1 and the 2-8/8-2 have a further spread than with the #4. For the purpose of just trying to eliminate our work is done.
The race ran 2-4-8-1.

omar · 10-20-2022, 06:57 PM

I believe it was 1978 & 1979. 9 races a day, every day. Back then I lived at the track, it seemed like it, every day for almost 7 years. Trust me, I'm no novice.

stormbringer · 10-22-2022, 05:53 AM

How did you get 6 at Keeneland today. Thank you for the fav odds above I will print it out to keep and learn.
Thanks

omar · 10-22-2022, 04:18 PM

I’ll explain tomorrow morning, too busy now. Sorry

stormbringer · 10-22-2022, 10:01 PM

A.m.f.

10-20-2022, 06:51 PM	#1
omar Grade 1 Join Date: Oct 2012 Posts: 378	Knowing when and how to toss the race favorite by reading the tote board * NO HANDICAPPING INVOLVED. All one has to do is 2 things: a) Identify the first 2-3 race choices; and b) check the correlations between the exacta prices and the tote odds. Someone once said the truth of mathematics is absolute, I think I heard or read that somewhere before. This method I'm going to show you I perfected in the late 70's. For 2 years I did nothing but chart the exactas and doubles at Aqu & Bel- no handicapping PERIOD. Back then all I had to work with was the tv monitors, so I had to write fast. Today I have the luxury of printing out all the exactas at any point in time, 12 horse field, no problem. To the best of my knowledge only 1 other person did what I was doing, a man called The Baron whom I never met. He was in the clubhouse, I stayed in the grandstand. Back then they called me Clipboard. I needed something to write on so I used a clipboard with my checkerboard squared paper. Now you can do this method by identifying the winner or key horse to use in exotics also. I recommend doing this with 3-4 minutes to post because just like tote odds, exacta prices will change also. For my purposes here I'm using the final screen odds and prices. This example race is from MNR 10-17-22, race 4. You'll notice the favorite[#1] is 1-2 and 2nd choice#2] is 2-1. The #4 was a distant 3rd choice at 9-1. Now look at the exacta prices. So the #2 is 4x the price of the #1 on the board but only 1.5x in the exactas. Note how close the 1-4/4-1 combinations are in the exactas but not so with the 2-4/4-2 combos. THAT'S IT, THAT'S ALL U NEED TO KNOW to toss the #1 as the winner! Now you can take it a step further. Check out the exacta prices #1 w/ 3-4-8 and the #2 w/3-4-8. when checking the 3-4 and 4-8 combos you'll see the closeness of the later, not so with 3-4. Toss the #3. Also the 1-8/8-1 and the 2-8/8-2 have a further spread than with the #4. For the purpose of just trying to eliminate our work is done. The race ran 2-4-8-1. Attached Images

10-20-2022, 06:57 PM	#2
omar Grade 1 Join Date: Oct 2012 Posts: 378	I believe it was 1978 & 1979. 9 races a day, every day. Back then I lived at the track, it seemed like it, every day for almost 7 years. Trust me, I'm no novice.

10-22-2022, 05:53 AM	#3
stormbringer Grade 1 Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 435	How did you get 6 at Keeneland today. Thank you for the fav odds above I will print it out to keep and learn. Thanks Last edited by stormbringer; 10-22-2022 at 05:55 AM. Reason: Mis spell

10-22-2022, 04:18 PM	#4
omar Grade 1 Join Date: Oct 2012 Posts: 378	I’ll explain tomorrow morning, too busy now. Sorry

10-22-2022, 10:01 PM	#5
stormbringer Grade 1 Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 435	A.m.f.