Response to % Med Analysis Question

[Lt1]

Viking 57 asked the following question.
Tim, nice hit, this one I did not get. When you are doing your %med analysis, are you using just the selected pace line or several races at surface/distance?
Hi Jim, I review the horses' entire pps. If it has 3 or more races with %meds at or over the range of of my model for the surface and dist. then I mark it either too early or late. If it has 2 races at or exceeding range I mark it as at the limit. Attached are 2 screens shots from r8 showing both examples. The range for 6f winners at MVR [my model] is 67.6 to 70.0. Here are the screen shots.



The #2 has 2 races showing above 70% and line 1 is at 69.9%. I marked it as @ early top.
The #4 has 3 races showing above 70% so I mark it as too early.
Tim

[raceman5]

Tim how many races do u do for each distance to get your % Med model

[Lt1]

Hi Raceman. I've been playing these trks so long that I have 100s of races but when I start a new meet or trk I usually like to have about 20 to be confident. Also the first day after dark days is one I pay attention to because trk work or weather may have change things but to be honest I rarely see some weird shifts.
Tim

[57viking]

Thanks Tim as always for the detailed response.

[Lt1]

You are welcome Jim. I try to be as clear as possible. The thing to remember is that each of us will make calls differently. Once you feel comfortable they become 2nd nature. You won't get them all right but 7 or 8 of 10 times is pretty darn good.
Tim

[ranchwest]

Originally Posted by Lt1

You are welcome Jim. I try to be as clear as possible. The thing to remember is that each of us will make calls differently. Once you feel comfortable they become 2nd nature. You won't get them all right but 7 or 8 of 10 times is pretty darn good.
Tim

Do you evaluate maidens any differently from non-maidens? I'd be especially interested in what you think about 2TS.

[Lt1]

No I don't. I do avoid mdn races with more the 1 fts.
Tim

[The Pook]

Lt,

The horse that has 3 races above 70% med and considered too early in a tier of four horses (you always have tiers of horses) …. is that horse knocked down a notch or is it completely removed from win consideration?

Mike

[Lt1]

All depends. Most times I knock it down but I never completely toss it since I have seen NTL types get out and go wtw despite high med.
Tim