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Races of Interest *Detailed* Discussion of Races – Screen shots, decisions, post-mortems

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Old 02-05-2023, 02:49 PM   #1
Lt1
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Quirin Form Failure Example

I have received several question about this. In his book Winning At The Races[Chapter 10] he goes into detail Here is what he spells out
Failures
Here is 1 of the example he gives using the horses ;ast 4 lines.
DIST CLASS FIN
6.0 13000 4TH 4
8.5 13000 8TH 12
6.5 16000 5TH 7
6.O 10000 2ND 1
Last good race was line 4. If entered in a sprint ignore line 2. If entered in a sprint for 10k or less theen the sprints for 13k are forgiven but if entered for 13kthen line 1 is a failure ie failed to accomplish what has to do today. If entered in a 16k print then both line 1 &3 are failures. If entered in a 10k route no failures,if entered in 13k rt the last 2 are failures, if in a 16k route then the last 3 are failures.
There are exceptions
1 last race comes after 31+ day l/o
2 last race came before a 31day+l/o
3 Any race with valid ex ie blocked, bumped, forced wide, poor start
4 Female against males
5 3 yr old against older
6 different surface ie dirt/turf and horse has never run a good race on turf & turf to dirt & no good dirt races.
In yesterdays' first race at Lrl the #1 is a good live example.
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On Nov19th[line 3] it finished 3rd vs 25kB claimers@6f
On Dec14th[line2] it finished 6th beaten 12 vs 25b claimers.. This race is a failure to match what it did Nov 19th. Now I noted the 4w comment however it was only a 6 horse field so I don't count that as a valid excuse.
On Jan 16th the horse drops to 16k n3l and finished 6th beaten 14 with comment 4w turn in an 8 horse field. I don't consider this a valid excuse either so we have another failure. Today it's dropping again to 10 n3l. Now where he uses 31 days in the valid exc explanation I've change that to 45 days to match the reality of todays racing. Also make sure that horse really merits a valid ex for trouble. I'm not that forgiving especially when the horse was dropping in the excuse race. Hope this helps.
Tim
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Old 02-05-2023, 03:12 PM   #2
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For the record the 1 tiered #1 on both the bl/bl & rx screens & fin 6th of 7 @2.30=1
Tim
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Old 02-06-2023, 08:12 AM   #3
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Does anyone use the TrackMaster Race Class (RC) field as the measurement of class in making these evaluations ?
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Old 02-06-2023, 09:02 AM   #4
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Hi Jim. I use the Bris pps. If I remember correctly Doc was very high on the TM class #s.
Tim
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Old 02-06-2023, 11:39 AM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lt1 View Post
Hi Jim. I use the Bris pps. If I remember correctly Doc was very high on the TM class #s.
Tim
Thanks fo the reference and the example.

Mark
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Old 02-06-2023, 12:37 PM   #6
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Your welcome Mark
Tim
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Old 02-06-2023, 12:40 PM   #7
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Correction to post #4 it should have read Doc wasn't high on TM class ratings.
Tim
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Old 02-11-2023, 11:12 PM   #8
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Thanks

Thanks for the example Tim.
As usual appreciate your time and sharing your knowledge base.
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Old 02-12-2023, 01:27 AM   #9
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I prefer the BRIS speed par over the class rating or race rating as a measure of class. I look at a number of measurements to reach a conclusion as to true class level.
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