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| Races of Interest *Detailed* Discussion of Races – Screen shots, decisions, post-mortems |
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#1 |
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Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 11,451
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Nice Day Ending DD Hit Parx 3-24
On a day where prices were low I caught the late dd 2 times making it a good day. My picks
TRK SLY R1 5-3-4-2 MDNS R2 4-5-3-6 R3 2-5-4-7 R4 2-5-7-1 R5 5-4-2-3 LS7 MDNS 5FTS R6 6-3-5-7 LS4 R7 7-3-5-1 LS2 MDS 1FTS R8 5-2-3-7 R9 4-1-6-7 Good Luck Tim Winning Tickets Mar 24 3:49:59 PM Complete Parx Racing 8 Double $2.00 1,2,5/5,7,9 $18.00 $83.80 $65.80 Mar 24 3:53:19 PM Complete Parx Racing 8 Double $3.00 5/5,7 $6.00 #125.70 $119.70 Winning Combo 5]$15.00] 7[$13.60] Screen Shots The R8 winner tiered #5 BL/BL & #4RX, the R9 winner tiered #3 BL'BL & #2RX. Tim
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#2 |
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Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: Loretto, Ontario Canada
Posts: 2,796
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Tim,
Why the 5 in Race 8 with it tiering 5th and 4th? Mike
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"A fool and his money are soon parted" |
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#3 |
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Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 11,451
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Hi Mike. After the tier ranks are determine I then check to see if the contenders have form defects[Scott Form Factors] or failures[Quirin]. Both of these approaches can be found on the site. The 3 & 7 has multi defects so out. That left 1,2,5. The 1 had declining finish positions in the last 3 races and was also showing declining form. That left 2 & 5 with no defects. I gave the edge to the 5 re better trainer and better odds 6-1 vs 8/5. I have many times posted that folks need to get past tier levels and do more capping. This is where record keeping plays a big part between winning & losing a race.
Tim
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#4 |
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Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: Loretto, Ontario Canada
Posts: 2,796
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Thanks Tim,
Good stuff. I kinda knew what you were going to say there. I am too lazy to do all that extra work. I know it costs me. But dammit I want RDSS to spit out winners with no outside capping! I want it to be a black box as they say. I know it aint. But I keep looking for the best way to use it. An odd way to spend ones time trying to reach the pot at the end of the rainbow but the fun is in the pursuit as long as you can afford it. Get me close RDSS! Give me a shot. Give me that high when they open the gate. We are all gambling junkies here. Hardly any, if any at all, are making money in the long run. The fun is in the trying. That's why we keep coming back. Pook
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"A fool and his money are soon parted" |
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#5 |
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Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 11,451
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Mike I know you are a matcher that is good at getting the contenders narrowed down. I also notice you limit yourself to a 1 horse bet per race[ I remember what you told me at the Spa]but maybe it is time to consider dutching your top 2 choices 60=40%.payoffs permitting. You just might catch a few more good paying horses.
Tim
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