Leverage/Pace Great Example Race

[kahunab]

PRX 9 on March 26 is a very good race to look at for learning purposes.
We open the race to the Leverage/Pace tab and demote all horses who are not in the top 5 RX3. Why you may ask. If you check our data base you will find that over 3200 races all surfaces, all distances, all tracks that 92 % of the time the winner is in the top 5, the place horse is there 88% of the time and the show horse is there 83% of the time. So statistically, without changing lines, ie. going with the best of the last 3 preceptor lines, we can expect the exacta there .92 x .88 or 81% of the time. The trifecta, 67% of the time. So roughly speaking we can expect to find the trifecta 2 out of 3 races in the top 5 RX3 horses. That data holds true but this race shows us when we need to expect an exception. We also know that one of the leverage pace horse will win or place 85% of the time.
Let’s look at race 9 on the L/P screen.
Our attention is drawn to the 3 blue arrow horses, 7,5,8. I have clicked on the 7’s blue arrow and turned it red because he is my key horse and I did not go back to change it. Look at his scores from left to right, his SR is 9 points better than #2, his TE is #1, BL/BL is #1, his Math score is #1, his RX3 is 13 points better than the 5, his L/P score is #1by a good margin, his secondary/supplemental scores are #1, his TPR is #1 as is his LPR is a late race with 18 speed points. Notice only he and the 8 have complete Math scores. He stands out as a Key horse.


New Pace gives us a rough look at the entire past performances of the horse and a statistical expectation of what they might run today. Our 7 is in the top two with the 4 horse and his high range is tied for #1 and his low is tied for #2. So New Pace supports our choice for the Key. Other top horses are the 4, 2, 6.


We now look at the Segments screen. Here is what we see. We see a confirmation that our choice of the 7 horse is good. Notice his TS+F3 is number one in a late race with 18 Early Speed Points. The multiple points of evidence is that he should be able to compete here and run 1st or 2nd . The 6 horse should catch your eye. Note that his VDC is 3rd. Note that he gains ground throughout the projected race. Note now the 4 horse in comparison. He loses ground through out the projected race and his VDC does not compare to the 6. The 5 also loses ground through out the projected race and his VDC is not as good as the 6. But because he had a L/P blue arrow, I chose to leave him in and demote the 4 and play the 6. I keyed the 7/2,5,6,8. I played the trifecta. I should have also played the exacta.


The results:

[shoeless]

Job well done

Jeff

[Ted Craven]

Thanks Dick - very clear exposition of the repeatable process using the Leverage/Pace protocol. The nuance of checking for keeping up with pace (or not) from the Segments screen always makes for a complete analysis - and here gets you the Place horse - the money-key to the races.

Ted

[Lt1]

Hi guys. I also hit the race using the 4#s approach and my pacelines. I also had the 7 as the key and the 6 underneath the only difference was that with the my pacelines the 6 not only gained lengths in each call but also gained positions in each call on the segment screen. So it appears that both approaches got the race and confirms the power of using both approaches in conjunction with each other.
Tim