skewed

[tompkins]

Don't know if others picked it up or not, but all the B.C. horses that ran at TP or KEE look much better than they are. Having said that, if one used the last KEE line for the Juvenile they would have had the winner in the top 3. Open to broad interpretation.

[jms62]

Yes.. I ignored these lines otherwise the TP horses would be amongst the top picks in Spec... Most ran poorly. It is not a problem with Spec, it is a problem with Trackmaster lines.. Like lines do not compare to like lines in the DRF.. For instance look at U D Ghettos 8.5 line from TP, it scores a SR of 95 which towers over the field and if used would rank this horse at the top of Bl/BL. Look at the DRF and this line ranks a hohum 77 which at a comp distance, puts this horse mid pack.

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by jms62

Yes.. I ignored these lines otherwise the TP horses would be amongst the top picks in Spec... Most ran poorly. It is not a problem with Spec, it is a problem with Trackmaster lines.. Like lines do not compare to like lines in the DRF.. For instance look at U D Ghettos 8.5 line from TP, it scores a SR of 95 which towers over the field and if used would rank this horse at the top of Bl/BL. Look at the DRF and this line ranks a hohum 77 which at a comp distance, puts this horse mid pack.

Hi Jim
consider changing them.

Use the "edit line" feature. If you think a track is say 1 second too fast ( 5 ticks) slow the final down by that. Then consider taking 60% of those 5 ticks (3) and slow the 2c down by that. Finally the 1c can be slowed by half that number so maybe slow it down by 1 ( ??)

these are kinda TPR adjustments from the book ( although 65% is recommended for sprints -60& routes) you arent looking to launch a rocket so these down and dirty numbers easily figured will get you in the game quick.
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When I match in my head Kee sprints ( especially 7f) are very fast while the routes are normal to slightly slow.

Turfway's poly are kinda normal sprints and a bit slow routing ( ESPECIALLY the 1st call)

This is based on Racing Form raw times.


Hope this helps
Rich

[partsnut]

if one used the last KEE line for the Juvenile they would have had the winner in the top 3. Open to broad interpretation.

From what I can ascertain from this race, It seems as thought the winner ran well on Turf as well as dirt.
It is my personal opinion that the new Polytrack surface enhances turf horses.
I guess my opinion was correct in this case.

[Fast4522]

Bill, you may have something there turf/poly, I will share my findings. The normal blade runner "conditioned and trained for the turf" % E winners peg in the range 48 to 51 % E at least the majority do. The normal dirt runner is at most tracks peg in a range of 50.90 to 52.98. Observations are that frontrunners do not fare as well, which may be true with respect to the ones who must use it early or sulk, and if they do use it early its of little advantage to them.
RIP to Guy for only providing % M as a tool and ditching % E because the other group selling software was using it. Really not Guy's fault or decision , because I believe it was a business decision. So today we are faced with the task of putting it all together with todays tracks and surface. Which is going to be more and more the case, so we better get good at it if we want to continue.

[socantra]

Originally Posted by jms62

Yes.. I ignored these lines otherwise the TP horses would be amongst the top picks in Spec... Most ran poorly. It is not a problem with Spec, it is a problem with Trackmaster lines.. Like lines do not compare to like lines in the DRF.. For instance look at U D Ghettos 8.5 line from TP, it scores a SR of 95 which towers over the field and if used would rank this horse at the top of Bl/BL. Look at the DRF and this line ranks a hohum 77 which at a comp distance, puts this horse mid pack.

If you look a little closer at that "U.D. Ghetto" line, its not really useable. Not only did it come off a 100k Grade 3 race, but Spec and Val both listed a variant of -42. It was easy to spot in Val3c, because the SR came in at 121 adjusted off a 137 original. The "TP" lines do seem pretty outrageous. Keenland seems a little more grounded in reality.

Dick...