PRX 10 29April

[kahunab]

The 10th Race at PRX today raises some interesting questions and answers. When I reassembled the race for some reason I lost the PL and BPP ratings. I think we can get the idea even missing those key ratings.
The first thing to notice when we open the race is that there is only one Candidate for designation as Key. The 10 horse.


Notice what happens when we open the Leverage Pace screen and scratch a couple of non contenders. Now the 9 and the 3 are also contenders for the Key designation. If we hold to strict protocol of using the top 5 RX3 horses, we would demote the 3. Note the two horses rated above him have really bad ratings and only a slight difference in RX3 ratings. There are two ways to handle this issue. One, move him to secondary contender status but remember his ratings and look to use him as a Companion horse. Or, two, demote the 4 and 5 to secondary status and keep him in the top 5 contenders. I chose the 2nd approach mostly because he has good Leverage Pace scores and good TPR-EPR-LPR. With 12 Early Speed Points, I picked the 10 as the Key. So the trifecta key is 10/1,2,3,9/1,2,3,9 repeated with the 10 in all 3 spots.




New Pace confirms our choice of the 10 as the Key. He is the fastest in a sprint and the best rated candidate.


The segments screen confirms our choice of the best Early horse in an Early biased race. Our 5 contenders have better VDC and are closer early with the exception of the 9, but his VDC is great and he is the best late. I think we have the right horses here.

[kahunab]

For those who are curious........

[dadams6357]

Dick
Nice Handicapping.
When you say 10/1,2,3,9/1,2,3,9 , repeat 10 in the next 3 spots would it be like the following.
10/1,2,3,9/1,2,3,9
1/10,2,3,9/10,2,3,9
2/10,1,3,9/10,1,3,9
3/10,1,2,9/10,1,2,9
9/10,1,2,3/10,1,2,3
Thanks
Don

[kahunab]

Originally Posted by dadams6357

Dick
Nice Handicapping.
When you say 10/1,2,3,9/1,2,3,9 , repeat 10 in the next 3 spots would it be like the following.
10/1,2,3,9/1,2,3,9
1/10,2,3,9/10,2,3,9
2/10,1,3,9/10,1,3,9
3/10,1,2,9/10,1,2,9
9/10,1,2,3/10,1,2,3
Thanks
Don

Don,
A trifecta Key Box looks like this. 10/1,2,3,9/1,2,3,9 then 1,2,3,9/10/1,2,3,9 then 1,2,3,9/1,2,3,9/10. If you use Twin Spires or other automated betting service, go to Trifecta, then Key Box and all you have to enter is 10/1,2,3,9 and they do the rest. The cost for this Tri Key Box is $18 for a $.50 tri.

Hope that helps,

Dick

[Lt1]

Nice work up Dick. Thanks for sharing.
Tim

[MM42]

Dick,

Appreciate the post! Awesome handicapping.

Marc

[shoeless]

Good job Dick and for posting that race

Jeff

[dadams6357]

Dick
Thanks for the explanation...
Don