question on velocity - Pace and Cap

DanBoals · 05-08-2025, 06:39 PM

Hi Ted,

Do these F3 velocities look right to you?

Thanks

Mitch44 · 05-09-2025, 06:26 AM

Yes they look right based on their % Med, early that can carry their speed into the 2nd Fr are the best. Here that's the 1,4 & 8.. They also are there at the SC wit the 1 having the best 3rd FR, also this horses 1st FR 60.00 will cause other Earlies to not run their 3rd FR trying to keep up with the 1 in the 1st FR. , Matchup.

Mitch44

raceman5 · 05-09-2025, 11:53 AM

job Mitch, never looked at it that way

Bob

reddogskip · 05-09-2025, 03:10 PM

While I consider myself a bit of a novice compared to many others on the site, I spent a bit of time trying to recreate your screen (using a variety of congiguration settings) and never did come close to this screen. Given the results of the race, I was quite fascinated by the output but unable to re-create it. For the record, I did use the line numbers referenced and did change the track surface to dirt. But still could not recreate it. Hope you bet the 1.

DanBoals · 05-09-2025, 03:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by reddogskip

Hope you bet the 1.

In spite of Mitch's idiotic view, the F3 numbers are clearly wrong.

I did like the 1, but I stopped betting as soon as I realized that RDSS was going non linear.

What is up Ted?

Mitch44 · 05-09-2025, 09:26 PM

Something that needs to be learned is that ; Any Early horse that can not carry its speed into the 2nd FR is a false Early and is a non contender. This also occurred in a race last night that was being discussed also the #1.

The Velocity-POH is one of my favorite screens and I always consult it. One can do many things with it.

The way racing is structured E horse's that can't carry their speed 6F are never winners and move to lesser tracks. I.e. From Parks to Pen Nat or Mountaineer. There they card few 6F races and more 5.5F races and horses that can't make it there and win at 5.5 F go down to much cheaper tracks like the one above and they tend to run a lot of 5F races where the best of these E and in many cases they are also are NTL horses with % Med over 70%. such as above. No I see nothing wrong with these 3Rd Fr.

You'll find these at major tracks also, however they are more prone to be running at lesser tracks.

Its "idiotic" views like this that make me a winner. BTY Dan that the best compliant I've had all day, you must try harder. Maybe in a PM you can explain to me where that came from.

Mitch 44 AKA "The Monkey"

Mitch44 · 05-10-2025, 05:58 AM

reddoggskip your setting are probably different than his.

Mitch44

Mitch44 · 05-10-2025, 06:09 AM

Also on this # 1 horse take note its Total Energy which frequently gets overlooked on this screen and others. Yes its number 1 however your missing a very big point here and that is the Gap it has over all other horses.

Few handicappers employ this however it should be in your toolbox. Ranking are flawed because the differences between ranks can be minuscule as Sartin has previously stated.

Mitch44

raceman5 · 05-10-2025, 09:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mitch44

Something that needs to be learned is that ; Any Early horse that can not carry its speed into the 2nd FR is a false Early and is a non contender. This also occurred in a race last night that was being discussed also the #1.

The Velocity-POH is one of my favorite screens and I always consult it. One can do many things with it.

The way racing is structured E horse's that can't carry their speed 6F are never winners and move to lesser tracks. I.e. From Parks to Pen Nat or Mountaineer. There they card few 6F races and more 5.5F races and horses that can't make it there and win at 5.5 F go down to much cheaper tracks like the one above and they tend to run a lot of 5F races where the best of these E and in many cases they are also are NTL horses with % Med over 70%. such as above. No I see nothing wrong with these 3Rd Fr.

You'll find these at major tracks also, however they are more prone to be running at lesser tracks.

Its "idiotic" views like this that make me a winner. BTY Dan that the best compliant I've had all day, you must try harder. Maybe in a PM you can explain to me where that came from.

Mitch 44 AKA "The Monkey"

Needs to switch to Decaf.

DanBoals · 05-10-2025, 10:05 AM

%medium is calculated by F1 + F2 / F1 + F2 + F3

obviously if F3 is wrong the %medium will be wrong as well...

why the F3 is wrong is the question... sorry Mitch, let the grown ups talk

05-09-2025, 11:53 AM	#3
raceman5 Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2007 Location: Largo Fl. Posts: 2,363	Nice job Mitch, never looked at it that way Bob

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05-08-2025, 06:39 PM	#1
DanBoals Grade 1 Join Date: Apr 2009 Location: Reno, NV Posts: 449	question on velocity Hi Ted, Do these F3 velocities look right to you? Thanks Attached Images

05-09-2025, 06:26 AM	#2
Mitch44 Grade 1 Join Date: Nov 2014 Location: The Villages, Fl. Posts: 3,871	Yes they look right based on their % Med, early that can carry their speed into the 2nd Fr are the best. Here that's the 1,4 & 8.. They also are there at the SC wit the 1 having the best 3rd FR, also this horses 1st FR 60.00 will cause other Earlies to not run their 3rd FR trying to keep up with the 1 in the 1st FR. , Matchup. Mitch44

05-09-2025, 03:10 PM	#4
reddogskip AlwNW1X Join Date: Aug 2019 Posts: 11	While I consider myself a bit of a novice compared to many others on the site, I spent a bit of time trying to recreate your screen (using a variety of congiguration settings) and never did come close to this screen. Given the results of the race, I was quite fascinated by the output but unable to re-create it. For the record, I did use the line numbers referenced and did change the track surface to dirt. But still could not recreate it. Hope you bet the 1.

05-09-2025, 09:26 PM	#6
Mitch44 Grade 1 Join Date: Nov 2014 Location: The Villages, Fl. Posts: 3,871	Something that needs to be learned is that ; Any Early horse that can not carry its speed into the 2nd FR is a false Early and is a non contender. This also occurred in a race last night that was being discussed also the #1. The Velocity-POH is one of my favorite screens and I always consult it. One can do many things with it. The way racing is structured E horse's that can't carry their speed 6F are never winners and move to lesser tracks. I.e. From Parks to Pen Nat or Mountaineer. There they card few 6F races and more 5.5F races and horses that can't make it there and win at 5.5 F go down to much cheaper tracks like the one above and they tend to run a lot of 5F races where the best of these E and in many cases they are also are NTL horses with % Med over 70%. such as above. No I see nothing wrong with these 3Rd Fr. You'll find these at major tracks also, however they are more prone to be running at lesser tracks. Its "idiotic" views like this that make me a winner. BTY Dan that the best compliant I've had all day, you must try harder. Maybe in a PM you can explain to me where that came from. Mitch 44 AKA "The Monkey"

05-10-2025, 05:58 AM	#7
Mitch44 Grade 1 Join Date: Nov 2014 Location: The Villages, Fl. Posts: 3,871	reddoggskip your setting are probably different than his. Mitch44

05-10-2025, 06:09 AM	#8
Mitch44 Grade 1 Join Date: Nov 2014 Location: The Villages, Fl. Posts: 3,871	Also on this # 1 horse take note its Total Energy which frequently gets overlooked on this screen and others. Yes its number 1 however your missing a very big point here and that is the Gap it has over all other horses. Few handicappers employ this however it should be in your toolbox. Ranking are flawed because the differences between ranks can be minuscule as Sartin has previously stated. Mitch44

05-10-2025, 10:05 AM	#10
DanBoals Grade 1 Join Date: Apr 2009 Location: Reno, NV Posts: 449	%medium is calculated by F1 + F2 / F1 + F2 + F3 obviously if F3 is wrong the %medium will be wrong as well... why the F3 is wrong is the question... sorry Mitch, let the grown ups talk