Turn Time Loss Revisited.

[Lt1]

I decided to revisit the topic of turn time loss. I conducted a review of 200 more contenders that lost at least 1 length between the 1c & 2c. The tracks involved were AQU, PARX, MTH,TDN.GP. & LRL. Here are the results
HORSES WINS PLACES
200 24[12%] 18[9%]
So it is pretty clear that horses that lose ground on the turn remain poor win & place prospects. Again these results are based on my contender and paceline selections so I recommend that folks do their own surveys to arrive at the results they can use in their capping.
Tim
Tim

[MJS6916]

Tim,

I heard your comments on one of those recent tutorials

about how much the everyday & lower class horses

have a hard time overcoming this kind of disadvantage in F2.

Nice work again.

Mike

[Lt1]

Thanks Mike. Even the better class horses don't do it all that much either.
Tim

[AwesomeAgain]

You are 100% correct. That dq really frosted my backside that day. Just have keep swinging like they say in baseball, when a hitter is in a slump. I take comfort in knowing that I don't spend a lot of money like I used to in the beginning of my handicapping career.
This is still a fun game and I love it. All the best sir!

[Mr.Pagine]

Originally Posted by Lt1

I decided to revisit the topic of turn time loss. I conducted a review of 200 more contenders that lost at least 1 length between the 1c & 2c. The tracks involved were AQU, PARX, MTH,TDN.GP. & LRL. Here are the results
HORSES WINS PLACES
200 24[12%] 18[9%]
So it is pretty clear that horses that lose ground on the turn remain poor win & place prospects. Again these results are based on my contender and paceline selections so I recommend that folks do their own surveys to arrive at the results they can use in their capping.
Tim
Tim

Great Info - Much Appreciated.

Don't Forget To Cash!!

Jon

[Lt1]

You are welcome Jon.
Tim

[Jake]

Originally Posted by Lt1

I decided to revisit the topic of turn time loss. I conducted a review of 200 more contenders that lost at least 1 length between the 1c & 2c. The tracks involved were AQU, PARX, MTH,TDN.GP. & LRL. Here are the results
HORSES WINS PLACES
200 24[12%] 18[9%]
So it is pretty clear that horses that lose ground on the turn remain poor win & place prospects. Again these results are based on my contender and paceline selections so I recommend that folks do their own surveys to arrive at the results they can use in their capping.
Tim
Tim

Tim,

Sorry, but on this one I continue to disagree with you. 12% winners is not a bad rate here, given the baseline of all horses just randomly selected for win percentage at around 12%-13% on average. And, this is the key observation here: those horses who lost turn time ground last race will likely come back at at higher odds in the next race when they do win (12% in your sample). So, I would tread lightly on automatically throwing these horses out; and, conversely, you may actively seek to make a case for playing these kinds of horse. So, while loss of ground could indicate bad form, it could also indicate a nice long shot play.
Thanks for all your research, Tim, hope you keep floating those kinds of observations, always good food for thought.

Jake

[Lt1]

No problem Jake. That's what makes capping fun. We all must live with our decisions. I agree that info like this is valuable since it makes us look at things we maybe overlooking. others find the info useful.
Tim

[Jake]

Originally Posted by Lt1

No problem Jake. That's what makes capping fun. We all must live with our decisions. I agree that info like this is valuable since it makes us look at things we maybe overlooking. others find the info useful.
Tim

That's why I love your motto! Good handicapping, Tim.