Keeneland Race 4 Wed 4/22/26 - Pace and Cap

AwesomeAgain · 04-24-2026, 04:50 PM

I am going to attempt to explain how I use Prime Power and Profit Line in conjunction with Newpace. Once I finally understood what the numbers were telling me Newpace became quite easy for me. First screenshot is the Newpace screen. Visual pace bias is telling us its going to run late. Notice at the bottom POR is 87 here, which means the race is under severe pressure and set up to favor late runners over early speed.
Prime Power ranks horses on raw ability like speed, class, and form, but it assumes the race unfolds cleanly, which makes it vulnerable in this kind of meltdown setup. Profit Line tries to project how the race actually finishes, so it holds up better when pressure disrupts the expected flow. As pace pressure increases, Prime Power tends to overvalue early dominance while Profit Line becomes more reliable in pointing toward horses that can survive the collapse.
NewPace POR is what ties it all together, because it tells you when to trust structure and when to shift toward outcome and survival. The 2nd screenshot is the Rx screen with top 5 profit line horses ranked. The 5 went off as the post time favorite and I dutch win bet the 6 and 1. The 6 wins at 9-1, the 1 places the 5 horse shows and the 8 rounds out the superfecta.

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Lt1 · 04-24-2026, 05:29 PM

Nice example in a hard race A12f turf race with only the 1 having a race within a fur of todays' dist. showing. Thanks for the screen shots. Congrats on the hit.
Tim

AwesomeAgain · 04-24-2026, 05:47 PM

The 6 paid $21.34 $7.90 $5.08
The 1 paid $11.80 $5.72

Exacta for $2 paid $280.08

I just win bet it!

kahunab · 04-24-2026, 06:08 PM

Nice hit, great post! Thanks for sharing!

Dick

shoeless · 04-24-2026, 06:42 PM

If I may ask, why did you decide on 6 &1

Thanks for sharing
Jeff

raceman5 · 04-24-2026, 07:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by shoeless

If I may ask, why did you decide on 6 &1

Thanks for sharing

Jeff

I am thinking the same thing, Jeff. How did he come up with the 6 and 1?

Bob

AwesomeAgain · 04-24-2026, 08:25 PM

The 6 was ranked 3 on the profit line. It was also ranked 2nd in TPP, L/Ep, TSF3 PF3. The 1 horse was ranked number 1 Newpace late. The 5 was was the post time favorite and the 8 was 2nd favorite. I put $10 win bet on the 6 and 1.

The Pook · 04-24-2026, 10:05 PM

A lot of folks use the best of last 3 auto select for their pace lines. Both you Awesome and Lt1 clearly do not. Maybe you two could chime in on what constitutes a good paceline. For some of the newer RDSS practitioners.

Pook

The Pook · 04-24-2026, 10:36 PM

I’m pretty sure Dick Werpy goes with the best of last 3 auto. He seems successful. Explain how taking the time to look for that ideal line out of ten serves you better. You know…for the uninitiated.

AwesomeAgain · 04-25-2026, 12:03 AM

Pook, lately I have been using unpressured high (red underline) and pressured (blue underline). Based on what the visual pace bias is showing. Then I will reference newpace (por) and esp on the energy screen. Then I look at Prime Power and Profit line. I do have a paceline selection matrix that I created and I can post it for all to reference. It may be of use to some and then again it may not.

04-24-2026, 04:50 PM	#1
AwesomeAgain Grade 1 Join Date: Jul 2016 Location: West Melbourne, Florida Posts: 258	Keeneland Race 4 Wed 4/22/26 I am going to attempt to explain how I use Prime Power and Profit Line in conjunction with Newpace. Once I finally understood what the numbers were telling me Newpace became quite easy for me. First screenshot is the Newpace screen. Visual pace bias is telling us its going to run late. Notice at the bottom POR is 87 here, which means the race is under severe pressure and set up to favor late runners over early speed. Prime Power ranks horses on raw ability like speed, class, and form, but it assumes the race unfolds cleanly, which makes it vulnerable in this kind of meltdown setup. Profit Line tries to project how the race actually finishes, so it holds up better when pressure disrupts the expected flow. As pace pressure increases, Prime Power tends to overvalue early dominance while Profit Line becomes more reliable in pointing toward horses that can survive the collapse. NewPace POR is what ties it all together, because it tells you when to trust structure and when to shift toward outcome and survival. The 2nd screenshot is the Rx screen with top 5 profit line horses ranked. The 5 went off as the post time favorite and I dutch win bet the 6 and 1. The 6 wins at 9-1, the 1 places the 5 horse shows and the 8 rounds out the superfecta. Attached Images

04-24-2026, 05:29 PM	#2
Lt1 Grade 1 Join Date: Apr 2012 Location: Valley Stream NY Posts: 11,327	Nice example in a hard race A12f turf race with only the 1 having a race within a fur of todays' dist. showing. Thanks for the screen shots. Congrats on the hit. Tim __________________ Trust but verify

04-24-2026, 06:08 PM	#4
kahunab Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2007 Location: Colorado Posts: 308	Nice hit, great post! Thanks for sharing! Dick __________________ Haakon 47 'Something magical happens when you bring together a group of people from different disciplines with a common purpose.' Mark Stefik Palo Alto Research Centre Fellow

04-24-2026, 10:05 PM	#8
The Pook Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2014 Location: Loretto, Ontario Canada Posts: 2,796	A lot of folks use the best of last 3 auto select for their pace lines. Both you Awesome and Lt1 clearly do not. Maybe you two could chime in on what constitutes a good paceline. For some of the newer RDSS practitioners. Pook __________________ *"A fool and his money are soon parted"*

04-24-2026, 10:36 PM	#9
The Pook Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2014 Location: Loretto, Ontario Canada Posts: 2,796	I’m pretty sure Dick Werpy goes with the best of last 3 auto. He seems successful. Explain how taking the time to look for that ideal line out of ten serves you better. You know…for the uninitiated. __________________ *"A fool and his money are soon parted"*

04-24-2026, 05:47 PM	#3
AwesomeAgain Grade 1 Join Date: Jul 2016 Location: West Melbourne, Florida Posts: 258	The 6 paid $21.34 $7.90 $5.08 The 1 paid $11.80 $5.72 Exacta for $2 paid $280.08 I just win bet it!

04-24-2026, 06:42 PM	#5
shoeless Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,586	If I may ask, why did you decide on 6 &1 Thanks for sharing Jeff

04-24-2026, 08:25 PM	#7
AwesomeAgain Grade 1 Join Date: Jul 2016 Location: West Melbourne, Florida Posts: 258	The 6 was ranked 3 on the profit line. It was also ranked 2nd in TPP, L/Ep, TSF3 PF3. The 1 horse was ranked number 1 Newpace late. The 5 was was the post time favorite and the 8 was 2nd favorite. I put $10 win bet on the 6 and 1.

04-25-2026, 12:03 AM	#10
AwesomeAgain Grade 1 Join Date: Jul 2016 Location: West Melbourne, Florida Posts: 258	Pook, lately I have been using unpressured high (red underline) and pressured (blue underline). Based on what the visual pace bias is showing. Then I will reference newpace (por) and esp on the energy screen. Then I look at Prime Power and Profit line. I do have a paceline selection matrix that I created and I can post it for all to reference. It may be of use to some and then again it may not.