Kentucky Derby last 11 runnings - The Marathon Method

[Bill Lyster]

The Hat said that any race over 10 furlongs and especially the Derby is won by the horse who ran against the best mile time (in races over one mile) and was closest to or on the lead at that point. I think being close was somewhere around no more than 2-3 lengths at the mile call. So you can take the chart call of the mile time in 9f races or deduct 6.4 seconds from the final time of races at 8.5 furlongs to get approximate mile split times. True contenders maintain or gain on the lead from the mile to the finish.

The reasoning for the mile time being key is that only those that had raced farther than a mile and were on or very close to the lead were the only ones with energy left to finish so early in their careers.

Several years ago I posted stats on Marathon races. You would have to search back. Either Marathon Races or dates within a day or two of Derby day in any year would find either the exact Hat Method.

So look, with the exception of the 80/1 outlier Rich Strike, all of the last 11 Derbys winners were close to the lead at the mile call and either maintained or gained position to win!!

Good luck this weekend






In this table the column labeled mile shows the horse position and L/B is lengths back; the next call is the STRetch followed by Lengths back

Kentucky Derby
Year Mile Time Mile L/B Str L/B Fin
2025 136.54 4 1 1 0 1
2024 137.46 1 0 1 0 1
2023 136.06 6 2 2 h 1
2022 136.96 15 7.5 3 4 1
2021 135.98 1 0 1 0 1
2020 135.02 1 0 1 0 1
2019 138.63 2 0 1 0 1
2018 137.35 1 0 1 0 1
2017 137.27 1 0 1 0 1
2016 135.61 2 0 1 0 1
2015 136.45 3 0 1 0 1

[DanBoals]

Is your chart the Kentucky Derby chart or is the chart of the prep race? Assuming this is the Kentucky Derby chart, 2020 was the Covid Derby, so I am guessing it was a lot faster since the horses were 4 months older. So that is probably not a valid race for predicting non September Derbies.

Using Howard math, throw out the slow in 2019 and the fast in 2016 and the Derby runs fairly consistent. Looks like 1:36.75 is the average. So within 3 lengths of that is a good indicator I take it.

[Bill Lyster]

The chart was from Churchill Downs the day when no spectators were allowed.
9/5/20.

Authentic was the winner

My data was from only horses that had won or placed in Grade 1 or grade 2 races, no off tracks, preferring 9f lines and grade 1 lines, especially when the race class was higher for grade 1 races than the grade 2 races. The only outlier that won that had not met the GR1/2 standard was Rich Strike who only ran well in a grade 3.

[Bill Lyster]

You might get in trouble using the average mile time. You should assess all entrant's mile times and positions for Saturday's race in case this lot of three year olds is really fast or really slow. Find the likely leaders and consider it good if they rally from 3 or less off at the mile call. You might have to check charts for positions in 8.5 furlong races to get a better understanding of time between calls that are shown vs somewhere in between.

[RichieP]

Good stuff Bill!!
Hat would tell me to try and find the leader at the mile for the Derby. That's you horse. Your "other" horse is one that "Power Moves" positionally up close into the mile while also being FAST.

Best of luck and I hope you and yours are doing great!

[kahunab]

Great Post Bill!

Thanks,

Dick

[Bill Lyster]

Originally Posted by RichieP

Good stuff Bill!!
Hat would tell me to try and find the leader at the mile for the Derby. That's you horse. Your "other" horse is one that "Power Moves" positionally up close into the mile while also being FAST.

Best of luck and I hope you and yours are doing great!

Richie,

Good hearing from you. Thanks for the reminder on Power MOves.

Hope all is well Grandpa!!!

[Bill Lyster]

This is from the 2023 Derby where Two Phils showed a great improvement in his poly race, ran the best race of its PPs and had some really nice works leading up to the race.

You can see it was highly thought of since breaking its maiden at 2. Does not really qualify if you use the win/place criteria in a Grade 1/2 race, but look at the last race on poly track.

It ran its best race ON POLY with a mile time that was among the best of all entrants this year. Ran its best 3rd fraction. Came from off the pace at the mile and won going away by 5+ lengths. This was a Big Race and coupled with the sterling works thereafter it could easily point to a price play even though its CSR rank was 14th and Total Energy was 12th.

The reason why I brought this up is because come Saturday there is a horse entered that just might be a nice price.



Its last three races have been on poly tracks, but in its last race the six furlong time was more than 3 seconds faster. The best miles in this field were 136.2 by the 8 and six other horses ran against 136.5 so the 137 is not that far off especially considering it was on poly track. The horse pressed off that mile time and went on to win convincingly. It previewed its grade 3 win with a 94 work and since then has posted two better works at 98 and a 97 in its last two works. This horse did not win or place in either a G1 or G2 race, but might be a price for exacta and/or trifecta.

Hope he runs up to his last outing and passes a few laggards in the stretch.

Regards,

[DanBoals]

Originally Posted by Bill Lyster

You might get in trouble using the average mile time. You should assess all entrant's mile times and positions for Saturday's race in case this lot of three year olds is really fast or really slow. Find the likely leaders and consider it good if they rally from 3 or less off at the mile call. You might have to check charts for positions in 8.5 furlong races to get a better understanding of time between calls that are shown vs somewhere in between.

You are certainly correct with the matchup in general.
You can't make generalizations, that completely defeats the matchup.

My hypothesis, which I have not proved one way or the other yet, is that the derby is a unique race and that it is more often run and won by its own rules and you can't really use other handicapping truisms on it.

You are probably correct.

But looking at the last 6-10 years or so, it seems like a whole bunch of them run very similar. And I get that the horses each year are different, but they are basically the top 18 US horses with the UAE derby winner and a japanese horse thrown in. Those 18 US horses tend to come from the same bloodlines and be trained by the same folks. I think there might be a pattern there to be discovered - kind of like those historians that say there are stages to every empire. Who knows? Maybe I am looking for something that isn't there... why I love handicapping, keeps the mind active.

[DanBoals]

Originally Posted by Bill Lyster

Attachment 55605
This is from the 2023 Derby where Two Phils showed a great improvement in his poly race, ran the best race of its PPs and had some really nice works leading up to the race.

Wow. Bill, you are really bringing some good insights to the Derby.

I think there might be important differences in Two Phils and Fulleffort though...

With Two Phils, he ran his 9f on all weather at 1:49. Mage ran his at 1:49.3 and Angel of Empire at 1:49.6 I think. They finished the top 3 that year.

This year, I think Fulleffort finished at 1:49.9. You have So Happy running at 1:49.0, Renegade at 1:49.7, Commandment with his #1 DCL at 1:50. Further Ado at 1:49.5 - who I really like...

Two Phils had the fastest 9f time that year. It got downgraded by DTV and Track to Track adjustments, but it was still the fastest time.

This year, Fulleffort is in the top group, but he is not the fastest like Two Phils was. You are probably correct and he will probably improve and run a great race, but I am skeptical at this point if he will be in the money or not. Guess that is why they run the races

"It were not best that we should all think alike; it is difference of opinion that makes horse races."
Mark Twain