Triple Crown reminder

[tompkins]

With the Triple Crown on the horizon I wanted to begin a review of the things to definitely look forward to in the preps for the Derby. We are definitely going to have a few "kinks" this year with two roads the classics coming by way of artificial surfaces (Turfways early prep and the Blue Grass at Keeneland) but there are some things that just never change: the percent median as these babies approach distances that many of them will never see again.

For the past 6 years, no winner has come out of one of the recognized graded 9.0 fulong preps at a percent median greater than 67.5 (an average of it's last three preps: only Monarchos was a little high but then his total energy dwarfed the rest of the field) along with total energies in the neighborhood of 162 plus (on Speculator). They usually need at least 6 starts with Barbaro being the exception.

Percent median has a habit of going up under three separate conditions:
1) First situation is in the case I showed sometime back of a router from Finger Lakes named Hoosick Falls. In three successive races, this one met, and could not keep up with, an early set of fractions that left him behind, so always look at pace of the race. If a horse is overwhelmed, it's percent median can rise without much negative to say: horse was simply overmatched. He came back against
a softer pace and won at 10/1 plus.
2) Horse meets a similar pace in it's last three yet it's percent median increases. Along with the total energy going down, these are NOT running into races as far over the last three and are telling the trainer they need a rest. These are regularly false favorites and are often
overworked colts (not surprisingly from D. Wayne's barn at times).
3) This LAST category is the one most germane to our babies: if the percent median goes up as the distances go up, this horse is NOT going to be running late into these longer distances well. They are telling you they are running out of gas as the distance increases. One of last year's
favorites for the Belmont (Bob n' John) showed this and was an automatic throw out. Jazil, last year's winner, brought in the correct percent median to that contest: 67.1-67.5.

Conversely, if a colt is showing the type of percent medians in the high 66's like Sweetnorthernsaint, Tapit (inexpereinced at the time of the Derby), or Afleet Alex brought into the Derby, they are suspect for the winner's
circle that first Saturday in May unless their total energy can overwhelm the deficit. That does not mean they will be off the board, but they are too far back and traffic will become a potential problem.

Smarty, Giacomo, Monarchos, Barbaro, Funnycide and War
Emblem all averaged in the neighborhood of 67.1-67.5 when looking at their last three preps and NONE of them went UP as the distances increased. Interestingly enough, the big favotie a few years back, Empire Maker, was slightly higher (avg. 67.8) than Funnycide and lower than
Peace Rules. Lion Heart, the place colt behind Smarty, was over the limit averaging 68, but showing that as an average, NOT going up. Many bounced by this
angle were Steppenwolfer, Lawyer Ron, Sinister
Minister, Bellamy Road, Saarland and others. Be ruthless in your eliminations and you WILL get the Derby winner.

ALL of these MUST be evaluated in a least THREE successive races to have any significance. Two races in a row are just not enough to sort out from randomness.

[tompkins]

One of the most savvy handicapper's I've met in many years (TK, a high school physics teacher from Minnesota) did some searching and reports this:

Re: percent median

With a bit of help recovering some lost files after a computer crash from our pal HSJ, I also took a peak at some past winners, including the $64.60 winner in 1999, Charismatic. He also falls right in line with what you mention below, and towers over the field from a total
energy standpoint. Should have been a can't miss winner - wish I had had him that day. Maybe they would allow "back to the future" wagers instead of plain old boring future wagers? tk

Who says horses are consistent?

[socantra]

Thanks Tompkins. That's very useful information. I've been doing some work with %median and %early lately and was immediately struck with thoughts of Mr. Rogers' saying "Everything goes together because its all one piece", Yogi Berra's comment about "Deja Vu all over again" and Doc's remark that "The Derby runs sustained".

The boundry between sustained and late for percent median appears to be between 67.0 and 67.1. The boundry between sustained and sustained/presser is right around 67.8. So, your figure of 67.5 is smack in the middle of the sustained range. I'll be watching this year's preps with a new appreciation of those ratios.

For those working with %early, the corresponding numbers would be about 50.5%, 51% and 51.5%. That's not exact, because the two concepts are measuring slightly different constructs, so there is no exact conversion. Those percentages should get you in the ball game though.

Dick...

[jms62]

"For the past 6 years, no winner has come out of one of the recognized graded 9.0 fulong preps at a percent median greater than 67.5 (an average of it's last three preps: only Monarchos was a little high but then his total energy dwarfed the rest of the field) "

This is a little vague to me and I need help understanding it.
Are you saying:

Take the average of the last 3 9.0 furlong preps for a horse. If this is the case No horse will have 3-9 furlong preps this year.

Are you saying that take any 9.0 furlong prep for the horse and his % median shouldn't be > 67.5.

Are you saying simply average the last 3 preps irrespective of distance and if his %median is > 67.5 AND he also has a 9.0 prep

[MIKE]

JMS62

I think that he was just talking about Monarchos' last three preps.

[tompkins]

Originally Posted by jms62

"For the past 6 years, no winner has come out of one of the recognized graded 9.0 fulong preps at a percent median greater than 67.5 (an average of it's last three preps: only Monarchos was a little high but then his total energy dwarfed the rest of the field) "


Take the average of the last 3 9.0 furlong preps for a horse. If this is the case No horse will have 3-9 furlong preps this year.

Almost NONE of them have had THREE 9 furlong preps. Watch for their %median rising as the distances get longer.

[tompkins]

Monarchos had a large total energy lead over the rest of the field but his last several % medians are shown here.

[tompkins]

12th race - Tampa Bay Downs - March 17, 2007

Race Name: Tampa Bay Derby - Grade: 3
Distance: One And One Sixteenth Miles
Winning Time: 1:43.11
Pgm Horse Jockey Win Place Show
2 Street Sense Calvin H. Borel 4.40 2.40 2.10
4 Any Given Saturday John R. Velazquez 2.20 2.10
7 Delightful Kiss Jeffrey Sanchez 2.10

This one is showing the running style that can win the first Saturday in May. Whether he will be the first to break the Breeder's CUp Juvenile curse or not will depend on how he matures through his next start at Keeneland in the Blue Grass but SO FAR, Carl Nafzger has a strong one here who fought back INSIDE of the other colt to win off a long layoff.