Top 3 Things

[shoeless]

Bob Cochran had tried to get this rolling once but it didnt fly so I thought I would try again.What are the top 3 things you are looking for when picking a paceline?It can be less or more if you would like.WHAT IM NOT LOOKING FOR IS PEOPLE POSTING THINGS JUST TO ARGUE WHAT SOMEONE HAS PICKED ON THEIR LIST.Im hoping some of you in the closet pace and cappers will respond as well.I think a list of this kind could be beneficial to everyone.


1) Can the horses run against the projected pace of today's race

2) Are the horses in current form

3) Can the horses run in today's class of the race

Hope to get some feedback out there from the usual suspects and you zombies as well.Have a Happy Easter.Jeff

[tom]

HE to you too, Jeff.

I looks for races that are similar to today's conditions, where the horses did not run abberantly, and where the pace was reasonably close to today's projected.
The less adjusting I have to use, the better.

Maybe we could pick a race or two, and post what line we picked and why?
I'd be interested.

[admin]

Top 3

1. Best of the last 3 Speed ratings at a comperable class distance
surface

2. Within 5 points of the favorite or the ave of the contenders

3. What it does against the projected pace of todays race

[Bob Cochran]

good morning everyone. The knee replacement is healing well. I must learn to walk up and down stairs in a normal manner, it will take time. I haven't been able to sit at the computer for any length of time because of the stiffening
efect causing the knee to lock up.

I feel good enough today to post these few remarks about 3 things i do when
handicapping a race.

1. eliminate non- contenders using the lack of races and/or work-outs
eg: no race and/or work-out in the last 23 days.

2. no life in 1 of it's alst 2 or 3 races barring legitimate excuses.

3. I confine my main wagers to Freshened and Lay-Off horses who have been
raced or worked into what i consider competitive racing condition.

Hope this helps Jeff.

[gl45]

Before pacelines, I must pick the horses that I think will improve in today's race. Once I have the contenders, and only then, I'll choose the pacelines that I think are in line with the projected pace.
My robotic approach to contender's selection:
1) Read Race Condition
2) Box score for consistency
3) Dates of recent races
4) Last 4 races horse's performance for form analysis. Pace and Speed ratings
5) Class, how the trainer manipulated the horse to enter him in today's race
6) Workouts, is the horse working out for today's race
7) Odds of past recent races.
8) Jocks
9) Find the horse's negative signs, that would not make him a contender.

lbj

[tom]

Unless, of course, it "works for you."

[shoeless]

Tom,Anytime you want to pick a race on a weekend perferably I would be up to it.I think it would be a nice change of pace to tell why we picked the pacelines and then run them through our various programs.Jeff

[shoeless]

Thanks guys for replying I think it helps getting other ideas.Bob I hope your road to recovery will be a smooth one.While rereading my post I realized I gave a list for picking contenders not pacelines.Here is my paceline list


1)pick a paceline that will match today's projected pace

2)I want to have the paceline at today's distance and track

3)If possible dont go back more then 30 days

Richie where are you?Jeff

[Bob Cochran]

Hi Jeff. Thanks for the well wishes. You originally asked how a person would go about selecting a paceline, not how to handicap a race.

I would agree on your last post, and I'd like to add this.

try to stay close to today's class if possible. If you restrict yourself to 30 days, it might eliminate qualified freshened and/or lay-off horses who
are valid contenders. IMHO.

If the total energy of a paceline is comparable to the rest of the field,I don't discriminate between turf and dirt.

good luck with your paceline picks.

[shoeless]

Bob,You make a good point about freshened horses especially if he has trainer that does well with them.Jeff