And behind Curtian #3... - Pace and Cap

alydar_ David · 08-09-2007, 12:51 AM

...we have:

Ai yi yi!

I was making one horse value bets tonight. Can't complain. I did well hitting my first bet at PEN paying $8.20, and my second bet at WO paying $13.70. Those were both in their respective first races.

Then I had a bunch of misses...then a $12.60 hit here and a $15.20 pop there. It was like that...losing most of the bets, but hitting some good ones along the way to more than offset the losers, keeping me gradually going up and up the profit ladder.

At the end of the night I had a bear of time with CT's ninth race. I was torn between #5 and #2, both were nice overlays with two minutes to post. I put $20 to win on #5.

For the tenth race I faced a similar dillema between the #5 and #4 horses. With one minute to go I finally made my move and tossed a $20 on #5.

If this were Let's Make A Deal I'd be riding a donkey home.

One good thing though, I'm glad this happened at the end of the night instead of the beginning of the night. What was that about psychology?

Ted Craven · 08-09-2007, 01:56 PM

David,

Congrats on your net success for the night! You seem to make the case eloquently for 2 horse wagering, even if only in cases when serious overlays or net mutuel prospects exist. Reading some latter Follow Ups lately, I recall Doc saying (yet again) how that method can be easier on the old psyche, and thus even more profitable in the long run. Of course if one's psyche is not fragile, then no need for that part of the safety net, and it's only a question of whether sometimes mutliple wagers, sometimes a single wager is long-run more profitable.

At the end of an evenings wagering, I think I'd have lost sleep over those final 2 losses, despite being up for the evening

yours,

Ted

alydar_ David · 08-09-2007, 07:07 PM

So true, Ted. I felt like a schmuck even though I made money.

And I won't say it affected me, but:

1) I generally know how to spell "curtain"

and,

2) I really meant to stay up until 3:00 A.M.

;>)

JimG · 08-09-2007, 07:25 PM

Your betting records and your psychological makeup should tell you whether 1 horse or 2 horse betting is right for you. I generally only play 1 horse in straight betting, however, I do have a threshold, which the second horse you posted passed, that I will also place a small win wager on because of the psychological crush to me if he happens to win.

Of course in dd, pick3's and pick4's, all the horses you listed would likely be included due to the value they represented. That's why I do like exotics as well as straight betting.

Congrats on a winning night David.

Jim

delmarscott2004 · 08-09-2007, 09:08 PM

Alyday David

Just getting back into this after being away , it's good to be back . I worked Pen Nat also 08.08.07. Any ides why the 3rd race had more than half the field (7)SCRATHGED ?.

Thanks ........ Scott

alydar_ David · 08-10-2007, 01:44 PM

Jim,

I know what you mean about that threshold. I think of it as walking Robin Trower's Bridge of Sighs into The House of Pain.

Before I start betting I put myself into a particular state of mind and tend to stay there for the duration of the betting. I choose which way I'm going to bet based on my mood, goals and willingness to exert effort. I do this before the first bet is made. I don't strictly adhere to this procedure, but it's generally the way I bet.

For example, am I using a computer? Do I really feel like working? Am I betting online or at the track? Am I going to be talking to people between races? Do I want to risk $100 or $1000? How much time do I have to advance bet? How much work have I done in advance? Am I playing online? Will I get shut out at the track?

If I'm playing exactas, I pretty much stay in exacta mode. I look for a key horse to place and take it from there. I do the same for trifectas, looking for that one key horse that I think will definitely hit the board.

Playing Pick3 and Pick4s requires a different mindset. Here I'm looking for winners, period. If the ones I select to win are mostly short priced I'll skip the wager.

For two horse win bets I prefer to wagercap, making sure my first horse isn't too short and that the second horse is definitely a value bet.

If I'm playing one horse value bets I'm really pushing the envelope and have to be prepared for scenarios like the one above (of course I'm never prepared to lose two monsters in a row, but it's not the end of the world). Conversely, if those had been the first two races on the card I seriously doubt I'd have made money that night. Yeah, that psychology business again. ;>)

-----

Scott,

That PEN race was originally carded for the turf. Ergo, all the scratches.

08-09-2007, 12:51 AM	#1
alydar_ David Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,654	And behind Curtian #3... ...we have: Ai yi yi! I was making one horse value bets tonight. Can't complain. I did well hitting my first bet at PEN paying $8.20, and my second bet at WO paying $13.70. Those were both in their respective first races. Then I had a bunch of misses...then a $12.60 hit here and a $15.20 pop there. It was like that...losing most of the bets, but hitting some good ones along the way to more than offset the losers, keeping me gradually going up and up the profit ladder. At the end of the night I had a bear of time with CT's ninth race. I was torn between #5 and #2, both were nice overlays with two minutes to post. I put $20 to win on #5. For the tenth race I faced a similar dillema between the #5 and #4 horses. With one minute to go I finally made my move and tossed a $20 on #5. If this were Let's Make A Deal I'd be riding a donkey home. One good thing though, I'm glad this happened at the end of the night instead of the beginning of the night. What was that about psychology? Attached Images

08-09-2007, 01:56 PM	#2
Ted Craven Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada Posts: 9,258	David, Congrats on your net success for the night! You seem to make the case eloquently for 2 horse wagering, even if only in cases when serious overlays or net mutuel prospects exist. Reading some latter Follow Ups lately, I recall Doc saying (yet again) how that method can be easier on the old psyche, and thus even more profitable in the long run. Of course if one's psyche is not fragile, then no need for that part of the safety net, and it's only a question of whether sometimes mutliple wagers, sometimes a single wager is long-run more profitable. At the end of an evenings wagering, I think I'd have lost sleep over those final 2 losses, despite being up for the evening yours, Ted

08-09-2007, 07:07 PM	#3
alydar_ David Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,654	So true, Ted. I felt like a schmuck even though I made money. And I won't say it affected me, but: 1) I generally know how to spell "curtain" and, 2) I really meant to stay up until 3:00 A.M. ;>)

08-09-2007, 07:25 PM	#4
JimG Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 992	Your betting records and your psychological makeup should tell you whether 1 horse or 2 horse betting is right for you. I generally only play 1 horse in straight betting, however, I do have a threshold, which the second horse you posted passed, that I will also place a small win wager on because of the psychological crush to me if he happens to win. Of course in dd, pick3's and pick4's, all the horses you listed would likely be included due to the value they represented. That's why I do like exotics as well as straight betting. Congrats on a winning night David. Jim

08-09-2007, 09:08 PM	#5
delmarscott2004 delmarscott2004 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Orange County California Posts: 132	Third Race , Pen Nat . 08.08.07 Alyday David Just getting back into this after being away , it's good to be back . I worked Pen Nat also 08.08.07. Any ides why the 3rd race had more than half the field (7)SCRATHGED ?. Thanks ........ Scott

08-10-2007, 01:44 PM	#6
alydar_ David Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,654	Jim, I know what you mean about that threshold. I think of it as walking Robin Trower's Bridge of Sighs into The House of Pain. Before I start betting I put myself into a particular state of mind and tend to stay there for the duration of the betting. I choose which way I'm going to bet based on my mood, goals and willingness to exert effort. I do this before the first bet is made. I don't strictly adhere to this procedure, but it's generally the way I bet. For example, am I using a computer? Do I really feel like working? Am I betting online or at the track? Am I going to be talking to people between races? Do I want to risk $100 or $1000? How much time do I have to advance bet? How much work have I done in advance? Am I playing online? Will I get shut out at the track? If I'm playing exactas, I pretty much stay in exacta mode. I look for a key horse to place and take it from there. I do the same for trifectas, looking for that one key horse that I think will definitely hit the board. Playing Pick3 and Pick4s requires a different mindset. Here I'm looking for winners, period. If the ones I select to win are mostly short priced I'll skip the wager. For two horse win bets I prefer to wagercap, making sure my first horse isn't too short and that the second horse is definitely a value bet. If I'm playing one horse value bets I'm really pushing the envelope and have to be prepared for scenarios like the one above (of course I'm never prepared to lose two monsters in a row, but it's not the end of the world). Conversely, if those had been the first two races on the card I seriously doubt I'd have made money that night. Yeah, that psychology business again. ;>) ----- Scott, That PEN race was originally carded for the turf. Ergo, all the scratches.