Top Horse is "best" - Myth??

[RichieP]

Shoe's thread got me interested in some stuff easily checkable by referencing records. First off thank you big bro for making us THINK.

Ok is the best or top ranked horse the way to go? The following is this week's numbers using computer paying NO attention to anything but numbers. No class,trainer,layoffs etc.

This is 1000% mechanical folks from contenders to line selection. See if there is something you can take from it.

I bet 59 races using the Matchup and raw pp's in addition to these races. They are NOT included in this mix.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
66 races worked:

#1 ranked Bl/bl horse won 17 races at payoffs of:
6.20
14.10
5.40
5.60
4.80
8.80
7.80
6.40
5.40
8.00
9.20
8.20
7.60
10.70
4.80
4.80
14.40

#2 ranked Bl/bl horse won 15 races at payoffs of:
22.60
32.20
6.60
9.10
15.30
9.80
9.80
57.40
4.60
8.00
20.00
11.60
6.60
32.60
17.40

#3 ranked Bl/bl horse won 11 races at payoffs of:
16.80
6.20
21.40
7.20
5.80
4.00
10.40
5.60
11.80
6.40
41.20

Now to the early/late performance. Same 66 race dataset.

#1 ranked Epr horse won 14 races at payoffs of:
5.80
16.80
22.60
9.10
9.80
5.40
5.40
9.80
7.80
9.20
7.60
4.00
14.40
3.20

#1 ranked Lpr horse won 18 races at payoffs of:
6.60
14.10
6.20
5.60
4.80
57.40
10.00
7.60
10.70
16.10
5.80
4.80
4.80
32.60
5.60
11.80
27.20
41.20

These races are all surfaces and include maiden races. So while the#1 ranked Bl/bl horse outperformed other 2 tiers of Bl/bl is it really "best" to be on the top horse?

Food for thought I hope.
Richie

[admin]

wow Rich The second place BLBL sure pays the best

I have a question how do you determin who the best is on the early late
the biggest stick early or late?

or the total energy readout?

[gl45]

Richie,
the only think I can see is: You selected the right pace lines. Nothing else.
Pino

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by admin

I have a question how do you determin who the best is on the early late
the biggest stick early or late?

Early data is the Epr read on superscreen
Late data is the Lpr read on supercreen.

Simple basic stuff Bill. Really

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by lbj

Richie,
the only think I can see is: You selected the right pace lines.
Pino

If that's the case paisan then the "best" horse should outperform everything else. Isn't that an accurate statement thinking "logically"? So why doesn't it actually work that way ???


Food for thought and please remember the title of the thread.

Ciao
Richie

[mufasa]

Originally Posted by RichieP

If that's the case paisan then the "best" horse should outperform everything else. Isn't that an accurate statement thinking "logically"? So why doesn't it actually work that way ???


Food for thought and please remember the title of the thread.

Ciao
Richie

Rich, good example. Statistics or studies of this type help putting things in perspective as to always thinking the highest rated is necessarily the best. I am guilty of that from time to time especially if I am feeling lazy about handicapping deeper.

Did you use best SR or best Total Energy and I must assume it was from last three races?

Thanks,

Robert

[admin]

Thanks Rich

Sorry for the confusion i saw early/late

Hey BTW

Queen Jelly Bean Is running in the 8th at Philly
alittle late in the day
JellyBean

Bill

[gl45]

Richie,
no rules. If you select the best of the last 3 or 4 races, doesn't tell me nothing if the horse has the best race in line 10, run 7 months ago. That is my line. It took me quite a while understanding this concept.
Why the Top horse doesn't win as often as we wish?

1st. rank BL/BL 25.7 win% bet $132 won $132.2
2nd rank BL/BL 22.7 win% bet $132 won $263.6
3th rank BL/BL 16.6 win% bet $132 won $136.8
1st rank EPR 21.2 win% bet $132 won 130.90
1st rank LPR 27.2 win% bet $132 won272.90

your numbers clealry indicate to bet 2nd. rank in BL/BL and 1st. rank in LPR.
Should I assume that the pace line selections for the 1st. 3th. rank Bl/BL and EPR are incorrect?
Pino

[mufasa]

Originally Posted by mufasa

Rich, good example. Statistics or studies of this type help putting things in perspective as to always thinking the highest rated is necessarily the best. I am guilty of that from time to time especially if I am feeling lazy about handicapping deeper.

Did you use best SR or best Total Energy and I must assume it was from last three races?

Thanks,

Robert

Rich, in case I did not make myself to clear with the post I am asking did you use as your pace line selection best SR last three races (or other) or did you consider best Total Energy last three races (or again other).

Thanks,

Robert

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by lbj

Richie,
no rules. If you select the best of the last 3 or 4 races, doesn't tell me nothing if the horse has the best race in line 10, run 7 months ago. That is my line. It took me quite a while understanding this concept.
Why the Top horse doesn't win as often as we wish?

1st. rank BL/BL 25.7 win% bet $132 won $132.2
2nd rank BL/BL 22.7 win% bet $132 won $263.6
3th rank BL/BL 16.6 win% bet $132 won $136.8
1st rank EPR 21.2 win% bet $132 won 130.90
1st rank LPR 27.2 win% bet $132 won 272.90

your numbers clealry indicate to bet 2nd. rank in BL/BL and 1st. rank in LPR.
Should I assume that the pace line selections for the 1st. 3th. rank Bl/BL and EPR are incorrect?
Pino

Excellent work Pino!
Now is the top horse the "BEST" ??? The top ranked horse also has the highest win %. Is he REALLY "best"??

That is the whole purpose of showing this Pino ok? To enlighten folks to the fact that VALUE is found in other spots beside #1.

Now to the small sample I will tell you exactly what will happen when the race sample increases. When this gets to 500 races Tier 3 win % will increase. Tier 2 will decrease a bit and the high paying winners will DOMINATE tiers 2 and 3.

Tier 1 will continue to be "best" as far as selecting winners at ANY price.Unfortunatley the mutuals paid will be severely depressed in comparison
Guaranteed.