PHA 9th -- Sunday, November 11 - Pace and Cap

alydar_ David · 11-11-2007, 02:29 AM

1 1/16 Claiming $15,000
Field of 12

This might be a fun (and profitable) race to handicap. Jump right in the water's fine! The race goes off around 4:00 P.M.

alydar_ David · 11-11-2007, 03:06 AM

Oops. This doesn't look like an exciting race at all. If #2 Miss Freud runs anywhere near her ability she'll destroy this field.

alydar_ David · 11-11-2007, 11:51 AM

Here's the 8th race at PHA today.

This one's not very exciting either. #6 has a TPR of 183. The only other horse within five points of that is #8 with 181.

If there are no scratches, then either bet those two or pass the race. They're both short. So, pass is the most likely outcome for me.

alydar_ David · 11-11-2007, 12:02 PM

Let's take a gander at PHA 7th.

If there are no scratches, then the only three worth considering are
#4, #7 and #3. No one else is within five points of the top TPR.

alydar_ David · 11-11-2007, 12:03 PM

Check their running styles:

alydar_ David · 11-11-2007, 12:09 PM

We've got:

#4 99 88 187 E
#7 93 92 185 S/P
#3 94 90 184 E

The only late horse is #7. He's our first bet.

#4 and #3 both run early.
#4 has an EPR of 99.
#3 has an EPR of 94.

#4 is our early horse.

Bet #7 and #4 assuming the odds are okay.

Suppose the top TPR horse is scratched? In that case consider all the horses within five points of that as contenders and repeat the process.

After a while it becomes so easy it's almost braindead and difficult to make a mistake.

Sophisticated? No.

Makes money? Yes.

shoeless · 11-11-2007, 01:09 PM

David,In the 8th I came up with a bigger spread on the 6 and 8,I went 2 races back on each to thier 6 fur line.I like the fact as well that Vega went with the 6 instead of the 8.Jeff

11-11-2007, 02:29 AM	#1
alydar_ David Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,654	PHA 9th -- Sunday, November 11 1 1/16 Claiming $15,000 Field of 12 This might be a fun (and profitable) race to handicap. Jump right in the water's fine! The race goes off around 4:00 P.M.

11-11-2007, 12:03 PM	#5
alydar_ David Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,654	Check their running styles: Attached Images

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11-11-2007, 03:06 AM	#2
alydar_ David Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,654	Oops. This doesn't look like an exciting race at all. If #2 Miss Freud runs anywhere near her ability she'll destroy this field. Attached Images

11-11-2007, 11:51 AM	#3
alydar_ David Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,654	Here's the 8th race at PHA today. This one's not very exciting either. #6 has a TPR of 183. The only other horse within five points of that is #8 with 181. If there are no scratches, then either bet those two or pass the race. They're both short. So, pass is the most likely outcome for me. Attached Images

11-11-2007, 12:02 PM	#4
alydar_ David Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,654	Let's take a gander at PHA 7th. If there are no scratches, then the only three worth considering are #4, #7 and #3. No one else is within five points of the top TPR. Attached Images

11-11-2007, 12:09 PM	#6
alydar_ David Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,654	We've got: #4 99 88 187 E #7 93 92 185 S/P #3 94 90 184 E The only late horse is #7. He's our first bet. #4 and #3 both run early. #4 has an EPR of 99. #3 has an EPR of 94. #4 is our early horse. Bet #7 and #4 assuming the odds are okay. Suppose the top TPR horse is scratched? In that case consider all the horses within five points of that as contenders and repeat the process. After a while it becomes so easy it's almost braindead and difficult to make a mistake. Sophisticated? No. Makes money? Yes.

11-11-2007, 01:09 PM	#7
shoeless Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,656	David,In the 8th I came up with a bigger spread on the 6 and 8,I went 2 races back on each to thier 6 fur line.I like the fact as well that Vega went with the 6 instead of the 8.Jeff Attached Images