How best to match just using raw/original times and the entire past performances?

[mufasa]

I mentioned this subject matter in another post area so why not address the question here.

I find myself too many times trying to match a race using both original times and Trackmaster adjusted times. This is seemingly a big mistake because the outcome many times is completely different as to who is early or who can run well against the established earliest. Projected pace is a nightmare without trying to adjust the raw times somewhat especially when considering what the Trackmaster adjustments are doing with the manipulated original times.

Rich, you had mentioned in another post that you prefer to match using raw times and all of the past performances. I would like to pick your brain a little (and perhaps that Hat’s) as to just how do you apply the rest of the past performances when selecting the best pace call time for an individual contender. I must guess that like staying away from very high SR’s you stay away from pace call times that are not proven in the PP’s as being somewhat the norm. If that is the case I assume again that this is a problem with lightly raced horses.

Perhaps you could post some examples of just using raw times where decisions have to be made as to what earlies need to be disregarded as to raw times evaluations.


Thanks,

Robert

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by mufasa

I would like to pick your brain a little (and perhaps that Hat’s) as to just how do you apply the rest of the past performances when selecting the best pace call time for an individual contender.
Thanks,
Robert

Hi Robert,
I'm on the phone with Hat.

We are not understanding what you mean by the above quote. Could you please explain exactly what you are looking for so we can better understand and be able to help you.

Richie

[mufasa]

Originally Posted by RichieP

Hi Robert,
I'm on the phone with Hat.

We are not understanding what you mean by the above quote. Could you please explain exactly what you are looking for so we can better understand and be able to help you.

Richie

Rich:
Sorry for the confusion. I am trying to utilize the Match Up methodology using raw or original times. You had mentioned in another area that you have given up on adjustments (i.e. track to track and track variant) and were just projecting the pace by way of raw times and the horses entire past performances. I was hoping that you could further explain specifically in which way would you use the horses entire past performances in lieu of adjustments. Or, if you could, provide us with an example of applying the MU methodology using just raw/original times of the pace calls and how would the total PP’s be used in this regard.
I am of cause not talking about a software match with the Trackmaster included adjustments. This is what confuses me so much since there are so many adjustments that many times the pace call times are completely different from the beginning raw times. I want just a pencil and paper like MU application using raw/original times something like “The Hat” would do with just the DRF. I have some ideas of how the past performances would come into play here but rather then guess it would be great if you could provide guidance.
Thanks,
Robert

[Dallas4lr]

Mufasa,

Excuse me for intruding, I'm fairly new to this site - but I might be able to assist in light of that.

Many years ago Ray Taulbot made a statement that transformed the why I look at horse races in general and pacelines specifically.

He stated "A winning horse either sets or overcomes the pace of the race it runs against." The key is to look at the way a horse ran in relation to the paces in its individual races. This way you get a feel for how a horse runs when the pace is hot, moderate, or slow.

The premise of the matchup isn't about the fractions your horse ran in: ala adjusted times, the premise of the matchup is about visualizing how your horse runs against various pace scenerios: ala raw times versus running position. So using adjusted times totally destroys the entire premise that the matchup is based upon.

Well before you can get an idea of how this horse might run today you have to project a pace, once you have projected the pace of todays race, now you have a basis for comparison.

Try to visualize the position this horse likes to run in from the past performances, and then pick a line that matches how that horse most likely will run today. Once you have selected that paceline then you can compare the pace of the chosen line to the projected pace of this race to determine how your horse will hold up.


Dallas

[RichieP]

"Mu"

Ok got you covered man. I'm going to put a race up which hopefully will help you.

It will also deal with questions regarding how to determine if a race goes early or other than early.

It will also deal with "Power Lines" and using them to pick the winner in TODAY'S race.

All this in ONE race where the outcome i think you will agree is most pleasant for matchers following Jim's teachings.

I'll post full pp's for the field and step by step rundown of the application of Jim's Matchup concepts.

"Mu" please give me a day tops to post up. Things very busy here BUT the race will be up by tomorrow morning.

Richie

[RichieP]

Here are the pp's for the field.

I ask that you NOT go and look for the result online.I have lost well over a hundred races online with Jim when he was teaching me.Races I could have EASILY went and found the answer to ahead of time.

The question that needs to be asked of ourselves is this: "Do I REALLY want to learn"?

If you DO then please do NOT look for the result today/tonight. Just look at the horse's pp's.

here are links to threads posted up that NEED to be understood to follow along with this race.
1) Power Lines - http://bindfold.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2619

2) Early or other than early - http://bindfold.com/forums/showthread.php?t=3063

After I lay out the working of the race tomorrow morning the Hat will come on and explain what went down here.

Today's distance is 8.5f on the dirt.

screenshots of original lines

[RichieP]

continuing with pp's

[simon]

Hi
Ragin here ,
Rich I see you are showing the tandems screen
on the lower half of the screens But the 6 7 8 and 11 all
are coming out of the same race PHA Nov17 race 10
is this right ? because its blank?

Ragin KGEN

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by Ragin

Hi
Ragin here ,
Rich I see you are showing the tandems screen
on the lower half of the screens But the 6 7 8 and 11 all
are coming out of the same race PHA Nov17 race 10
is this right ? because its blank?

Ragin KGEN

Good catch man! I hadn't even noticed. Let's leave the setup and folks can note that the 6,7,8,11 are all tandem from last race.

Good eye and thank you for the heads up

[mufasa]

Originally Posted by RichieP

"Mu"

Ok got you covered man. I'm going to put a race up which hopefully will help you.

It will also deal with questions regarding how to determine if a race goes early or other than early.

It will also deal with "Power Lines" and using them to pick the winner in TODAY'S race.

All this in ONE race where the outcome i think you will agree is most pleasant for matchers following Jim's teachings.

I'll post full pp's for the field and step by step rundown of the application of Jim's Matchup concepts.

"Mu" please give me a day tops to post up. Things very busy here BUT the race will be up by tomorrow morning.

Richie

Thanks Rich, I know you are busy so take your time since I am confident that as usual you will deliver big time on your promise.

You know I reviewed the information on Power Lines and OTE you had suggested on your following post to this one (do not worry no peeking), and it was very much re-enlightening. I feel I was thinking more clearly then and since have lost the way. I have started trying to adjust or consider the absolute need to adjust especially after working with the “software matchers” post over in the RDSS area. It mixed me up because of all of the adjustments that Trackmaster makes and it made me think that somehow I needed to follow suit.

I prefer to learn the match up the way Jim has written about it just using the DRF and the horses past performances as given. As to the software because of the different colors used on the faster pace call times it can help in the selection of power lines.
Thanks,
Robert