Running Bad

[alydar_ David]

The following article is from Full Tilt Poker. Although it deals with poker one could easily substitute "betting on thoroughbreds."

We've all been there. How you handle it is what counts.

Running Bad
by Chris Ferguson
January 3rd 2008

In 1964, Supreme Court Justice Potter Stewart tried to define what may or may not be considered obscene under US law. In the end, he determined that no definition existed, but that when it comes to obscenity, “I know it when I see it.”

The same holds true when you’re talking about running badly at the poker table. You may not be able to identify what’s going wrong, but you know its happening. As far as I’m concerned, there’s no single definition or criteria for “running bad” because it means something different to everyone. For some players, it’s posting 10 or 12 losing sessions in a row. For others, it’s losing a dozen coin-flips during a single session. “Running badly” depends on the individual and on the metrics they’re using to judge their performance.

Whatever the definition is, the fact remains that everyone runs bad at one time or another. What separates successful players from those who go bust is how they handle themselves and their bankrolls when their cards go dead. For me, running bad doesn’t mean having a few losing nights or taking a few bad beats over the course of a session. That’s variance and it’s an inevitable part of the game. In my mind, running bad is something bigger that happens over the long term.

If you’re not sure whether you’re really running bad or not, start by stepping back and analyzing your results over a statistically significant timeframe. If you see a consistent pattern of losing sessions over a matter of weeks or months, then it’s likely that you’re having some real problems with your game. The key to getting back on track is figure out what’s actually going wrong.

For many players, running badly is a vicious circle; they suffer a few losing sessions and begin to tilt, which leads them to alter their playing styles in order to change things up. Soon, they do actually start playing badly, which leads to more losing sessions, and a continuation of their downward spiral. They lose because they’re running badly and they’re running badly because they’re losing.

If you look at your game and believe that you’re actually playing well but are just getting unlucky, then maybe you are. Aces get cracked by lower pairs. Sets get beaten by flushes, and hands get drowned on the river more often than you might think. My advice in these situations is to walk away from the game for a while. Take a break, regroup, and come back when you’re mentally refreshed and are ready to start playing again. Don’t, however, begin changing your game to compensate for bad luck. Focus on the fundamentals, look for good starting hands, and try to play the most solid poker you can. In time, your luck will change.

Whatever you do, however, don’t try to step up in levels in order to try and recoup your losses. I’ve seen many players go bust at times like these because they’re too focused on trying to rebuild their bankrolls by gambling rather than by playing smart poker and moving down to play at a lower level. Think about it; if you’ve been losing, chances are that you’re playing on a smaller bankroll than normal, which means that you’ll be risking a higher percentage of your remaining funds by playing at higher stakes. With a smaller cushion behind you and more of your bankroll at risk, it doesn’t take long for things to go from bad to worse and for you to lose everything you had left.

On the other hand, by moving down a level or two, you’ll be risking less in the short term while you try to rebuild your bankroll. Sure, the pots you win may not be as big as those you win at higher levels, but weighed against the odds of going broke, it’s a trade-off I’m willing to make. What’s more, by moving down, I may only have to play at a lower level for a month or two to recover my losses whereas if I go broke after moving up, it could take me a year or more until I’ve recovered. That’s a pretty persuasive argument if you really value your time.

While I can’t tell you whether you’re really running badly or not, I can tell you that your mental state does impact your game. If you’re feeling good, chances are you’ll play well and, if you’re not, chances are you won’t. Rough patches are part of the game and learning how to handle short-term adversity without losing your confidence or your bankroll will make you a better player in the long run.

[admin]

Thank You David

If you’re not sure whether you’re really running bad or not, start by stepping back and analyzing your results over a statistically significant timeframe. If you see a consistent pattern of losing sessions over a matter of weeks or months, then it’s likely that you’re having some real problems with your game. The key to getting back on track is figure out what’s actually going wrong.

In my case its drifting and losing focus

It all comes back after a break

Thank you for this it helps me

BTW
the factor anaysis manual is ready to post
Thank you very much
I wish you great success

GS
Bill

[Neil S.]

Bill:

As both a poker player and horse player I know exactly what Chris Ferguson is talking about. Interestingly enough I find it much easier to do what Chris writes when I play poker and as a result I have been a winning poker player for all 5 years that I've played. However in horse racing one needs to keep more detailed records to determine specific reasons as to what is causing the recent adversity. For example, I have only recently started tracking the performance of my "top three" picks under different conditions. I find that when every entry in the field has 3 or more pacelines, the winner appears in my top 3 nearly 60 percent of the time, and the winner is one of my five contenders over 90 percent of the time. Compare this to races where several horses have less than 3 lines and my top 3 win rate drops to less than 40 percent. Despite this I continued to play each race the same way refusing to realize that I can instantly improve my performance by only focusing on this subset of races. There are even more subtle factors as well that effect one's performance, and at certain times of the year these factors all seem to line up and put you at a serious disadvantage. Look at several fall cards in Kentucky and New York that are filled with lightly raced 2 year olds or multiple horses trying to turf or route for the first time, and upon closer analysis you can see that these are situations not conducive to winning. That occasional $40.00 win skews your thinking into beleiving that there is a lot of value in these races, when in reality the statistics don't bare this out as my hit rate is just not good enough.
I have made a commitment to myself this year to analyze more closely the situations where I play best and worst just as I do in poker. I have already seen positive results in a small sampling, and this is an encouraging start. I also have tried to "re-program" my mind to stop chasing "value" for the sake of making a score, and now am trying to improve my skills of matching horses and picking the one "regardless of price" that best fits the pace conditions. You get more winners and a better ROI when you avoid being mechanical in approach. This is the secret to playing winning poker and is the ultimate means of winning at racing.
Hang in there and give yourself some time to sort things out in your mind. Play races on paper for awhile and analyze the possible reasons you made the wrong or right decision. I have been doing this lately and find some interesting patterns forming. As Richie says, pattern recognition is key.

Neil

[Jonathan Steele]

"BTW
the factor anaysis manual is ready to post"

Thanks much, Bill!

Best regards,

Jon

[bobp]

Interesting thing about the horse race capping , is your state of mind.

The Hat's music suggestion to relax your mind to get into the flow of the game with concentration is powerful .

Yesterday I was upset over a family members notification of an upcoming operation. Played and lost 4 in a row.

Today after we discussed how it would be a piece of cake for a guy who walked away from a crash landing in Nam, I felt releif and hit 4 in a row.

"Its all in the Sate of Mind"

BobP

[MIKE1121]

Originally Posted by bobp

"Its all in the State of Mind"

BobP

This is the MOST true statement that has ever been spoken ( not just horse racing but everything in life ). When you have that feeling of invinsibility like I did yesterday you feel like you are on top of the world , like you own the game and all the pieces just come together. Today for whatever reason my state of mind came to a crashing thump ( first 2 plays both races my horses pull up, instead of shakeing it off I pressed my play and go 0 for 8 ) I felt like a person who never played the game before and got my A** handed to me.

If you take the position that horse race handicapping is a difficult pursuit, that it has thousands of variables and is almost completely random you are done.If and when you see it as being easy then it becomes easy.

When **** happens which it will, atleast try not to step in it.


Mike.

[bobp]

I loved that reply, especially that last line of humour.

Cheers

BobP