4 1/2 furlongs at Charleston

[Capcondo]

Like many of you (I'm sure) who were skeptical of 4 1/2 furlong races, here is one I looked at but didn't bet where I had the winner at $37.60. It is the 1st race from Charlestown on Friday, 2/29/08. I'll never make the mistake again that these races can't be bet.

Just as with other races, the first call is so critical. In a 4 1/2 furlong race, the first call is nearly half the race (literally)!

Analysis:

The crowd loved the 2 and the 4. I'm not sure what they saw in the 4. The 2 was clearly a quitter; no fight in this boy. The 2 needed a 22.3 and to be loose to win. When he had to run faster than that, he was beaten. Who was going to stop the 2 from getting loose in 22.3.

Move down to the 5. To be fair, the 5's last race was a bad one with no apparent excuse. But, I'm ready to be a bit more forgiving of one bad race at this distance than I might be at another distance. The three previous races showed in order:
1 length off a 22.1 breaking 1st at the start
1.5 lengths off a 22.2 breaking 2nd at the start
hd off a 22.2 breaking 1st at the start

What's more, the 5 held or improved his position in each of the last two good races.

The 5 figured to put pressure on the 2 at the start. He did. They were lengths in front of the rest of the field. Not bad for a 17:1 shot.

The pp's and result chart are attached.

By the way, I pay attention to where a horse breaks at the start of the race. If two horses match up in a 21.3 and one breaks 6th and the other breaks in the 1st to 3rd spot regularly, guess who's going to get the lead?

Take a look at these 4 1/2 and 5 furlong races. There are some jewels in there.

Finally, I want to say that this sight has taught me more about analyzing race than anything I have done in 25 years of following the ponies. The things that have helped me the most are:

The importance of start and the first fraction. When I start looking right, I say to myself look left.

The fighter. I won a race today at Philadelphia today because I picked the fighter over the quitter.

Like Richie, I'm in it for the money. It is O.K. to pass lots of races. When you find one you understand, go for it.

Thanks Richie for all you've written here.

Tim

*** Welcome Tim and VERY nice work man!*** - RichieP

[RichieP]

Here are Tim's past performances for the race.

"Hat" made a point to show me a 4.5f race in like the 2nd or 3rd race he ever worked with me. Tim he ABSOLUTELY looks at these races man.

[RichieP]

The result chart of the race

[tfm]

Originally Posted by Capcondo

By the way, I pay attention to where a horse breaks at the start of the race. If two horses match up in a 21.3 and one breaks 6th and the other breaks in the 1st to 3rd spot regularly, guess who's going to get the lead?

GP 2/29/08 Race 7

Trippi Dance 21 starts 1 win 6 2nds 4 3rds

9 BAD START comments in his last 10 races

Figuree huge, for me, coming off the pace.

What happens?

He breaks cleanly, under Chavez, DUELS for the lead, and still has enough to hold on for 3rd. To say he was best is an understatement. To say I was suprised when he broke well AND took the lead, is also an understatement

When you watch alot of races closely, generalizations are exposed. The idea is not that these generalizations don't typically hold but rather identifying those cases where they don't.