Videos: Woodbine 05/28/2008 - Pace and Cap

Ted Craven · 06-01-2008, 06:45 PM

In another thread, Dallas4lr (Carl) said he was having some trouble predicting the winner at Woodbine May 28 in a series of races (http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=3984 - see post #5). I made a series of videos in (Flash format) with my take on a method using RDSS for 4 races that day at Woodbine. I did handicap these after the fact, but did not know the results: however, the point of this exercise is not actually to predict the winner per se, but to describe a method of using RDSS and to show a consistent process of identifying contenders, picking pacelines, analysing readouts.

For me this is a consistent method, one which takes a lot less time to implement that to actually describe. Hopefully some who are trying to get the hang of RDSS, and establish their own method, will find this useful. Readers of later Follow Ups will recognize the approach straight out of those pages, using all the tools in the book: Total Energy, V/DC, Early/Late, Bottom/Line Betting/Line, and adding older tools like APV and Class and newer ones like Computed Beaten Lengths (CBL) and True Speed+F3 (the Segments screen). And always, not forgetting a touch of Match Up, such as I'm able.

Race 4: www.artofpace.com/media/WO0528-4.wmv

Race 5: www.artofpace.com/media/WO0528-5.wmv

Race 6: www.artofpace.com/media/WO0528-6.wmv

Race 7: www.artofpace.com/media/WO0528-7.wmv

Carl, hope this gives you some ideas for your next try at Woodbine. Don't give up on it - sometimes there are some very nice mutuels, and fine racing. When I'm lucky, sometimes you'll see me leaning on the rail at the finish line

Enjoy!

Ted

Dallas4lr · 06-08-2008, 08:19 AM

Ted,

I would like to thank you for working these races. It was certainly very informative and appreciated. I really wanted to go over the races several times to see where my system might be flawed. Clearly its in the paceline selection.

Things I've noticed

1) You definitely use tighter recency standards then I. I generally would go back up to four lines deep, but I can see where my line selection had me picking lines that might not be representative.

2) I also noticed in a 6F race you selected an older 5f line (during the current meet) that had a higher total energy then a more recent 6F line. I also like your use of power lines. So it appears that in a 6F race you might use any lines from 5.0f to 7f if the horse had a higher TE and the race is representative of what the horse might do today.

3) I noticed that you dont necessarily throw out a line if a horse was beaten by more than 7.5 lengths.

4)I can see where starting with the top three class horses gives you a clear advantage when comparing the total energies of the remaining horses. Its very easy to see horses from a TE perspective which dont have a chance.

5)Its really given me added confidence that good PL selection goes a long way.

Thanks
Carl

06-01-2008, 06:45 PM	#1
Ted Craven Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada Posts: 9,258	Videos: Woodbine 05/28/2008 In another thread, Dallas4lr (Carl) said he was having some trouble predicting the winner at Woodbine May 28 in a series of races (http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=3984 - see post #5). I made a series of videos in (Flash format) with my take on a method using RDSS for 4 races that day at Woodbine. I did handicap these after the fact, but did not know the results: however, the point of this exercise is not actually to predict the winner per se, but to describe a method of using RDSS and to show a consistent process of identifying contenders, picking pacelines, analysing readouts. For me this is a consistent method, one which takes a lot less time to implement that to actually describe. Hopefully some who are trying to get the hang of RDSS, and establish their own method, will find this useful. Readers of later Follow Ups will recognize the approach straight out of those pages, using all the tools in the book: Total Energy, V/DC, Early/Late, Bottom/Line Betting/Line, and adding older tools like APV and Class and newer ones like Computed Beaten Lengths (CBL) and True Speed+F3 (the Segments screen). And always, not forgetting a touch of Match Up, such as I'm able. Race 4: www.artofpace.com/media/WO0528-4.wmv Race 5: www.artofpace.com/media/WO0528-5.wmv Race 6: www.artofpace.com/media/WO0528-6.wmv Race 7: www.artofpace.com/media/WO0528-7.wmv Carl, hope this gives you some ideas for your next try at Woodbine. Don't give up on it - sometimes there are some very nice mutuels, and fine racing. When I'm lucky, sometimes you'll see me leaning on the rail at the finish line Enjoy! Ted __________________ RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™ Last edited by Ted Craven; 06-06-2008 at 07:00 PM.

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06-08-2008, 08:19 AM	#2
Dallas4lr Grade 1 Join Date: Nov 2007 Location: Syracuse, NY Posts: 104	Ted, I would like to thank you for working these races. It was certainly very informative and appreciated. I really wanted to go over the races several times to see where my system might be flawed. Clearly its in the paceline selection. Things I've noticed 1) You definitely use tighter recency standards then I. I generally would go back up to four lines deep, but I can see where my line selection had me picking lines that might not be representative. 2) I also noticed in a 6F race you selected an older 5f line (during the current meet) that had a higher total energy then a more recent 6F line. I also like your use of power lines. So it appears that in a 6F race you might use any lines from 5.0f to 7f if the horse had a higher TE and the race is representative of what the horse might do today. 3) I noticed that you dont necessarily throw out a line if a horse was beaten by more than 7.5 lengths. 4)I can see where starting with the top three class horses gives you a clear advantage when comparing the total energies of the remaining horses. Its very easy to see horses from a TE perspective which dont have a chance. 5)Its really given me added confidence that good PL selection goes a long way. Thanks Carl