Bel Stks Rdss vs Energy - Pace and Cap

froggy · 06-05-2008, 05:57 PM

I used each of the horses best race as indicated by Perceptor and then with the Energy program did the eliminations.
First the #4 and #7 as the two lowest total energy horses.
Then those that didn't have any ones or twos on the sort screen.
Of the remaining horses #9 looks like he may be too far out of it to get to the finish line first and his total energy is weak.
The Variegate indicates early and I think this is suspect.
If the race is run with a slow pace maybe the #5 can win.
Looks like a two horse bet would be the #1 and #6.
I think I'll just sit on my hands and watch them run.

Tim Y · 06-05-2008, 09:35 PM

The favorite will probably run away from the field but with e/l's like this 12 furlong says VULNERABLE.

ALL THREE top finishers last year were in the high 66's for median %.

Houndog · 06-06-2008, 01:44 PM

Casino Drive is a questionable starter for the Belmont. I would be careful with the Variegate Predictor; but in this case it may be correct. Also I would be careful with Keeneland lines. Many horses exiting Keeneland races will show monster final fractions. That track plays very differently not only because of Poly but with no banking to speak of on the turns.

Casino Drive gets the benefit of running 9 Furlongs around one turn at Belmont if I am not mistaken.

Tim Y · 06-06-2008, 02:07 PM

Yes take away that one Keeneland line and there is only one stone cold closer.

froggy · 06-07-2008, 01:52 AM

I don't know if this is called a form of match-up but I have taken the horse that will pobably be leading at the 6f call and then looked for horses that can win in a race with that time.
Here they are.
Da' Tara looks like he will have the lead coming out of the turn so to speak and these two others can overtake and win with that pace and they are of course Big Brown and Denis Of Cork.

Tim Y · 06-07-2008, 09:34 AM

Marion Jones, BALCO Poster child, Olympic champion or biochemical queen?
Ben Johnson, Canadian sprint Gold Medalist or puffed up pseudo-champ?
Barry "Clear, watch out for my increasing hat size, growth hormone" Bonds?
Bjarne Riis , how about that EPO, Tour de France winner?
Randy Orton, WWF star or biochemical Frankenstein?

Have a familiar ring to it?

Can't cut it? we have a short cut you!!!

Not a purist, but disappointed and won't be pulling for the connections today.

socantra · 06-07-2008, 03:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tim Y

Not a purist, but disappointed and won't be pulling for the connections today.

Sounds a lot like a purist to me, and as a Canadian friend used to tell me, the connections won't be running today.

Dick

kiltman · 06-07-2008, 03:54 PM

No juice in BB today nothing since april and vet has given him a clean bill of health and GO BB.

stormbringer · 06-07-2008, 06:56 PM

Thanks Froggy For The Winner Of The Belmont!!!
I Loved It.

Charlie D · 06-07-2008, 07:00 PM

I thought Big Brown would win and wanted BB to win Triple Crown, so only backed em to place

Da'Tara was as high as 160 on Betfair to small money

06-05-2008, 09:35 PM	#2
Tim Y turf historian Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 6,455	The favorite will probably run away from the field but with e/l's like this 12 furlong says VULNERABLE. ALL THREE top finishers last year were in the high 66's for median %. Attached Images Last edited by Tim Y; 06-05-2008 at 09:38 PM.

06-06-2008, 01:44 PM	#3
Houndog Grade 1 Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 1,258	Casino Drive Casino Drive is a questionable starter for the Belmont. I would be careful with the Variegate Predictor; but in this case it may be correct. Also I would be careful with Keeneland lines. Many horses exiting Keeneland races will show monster final fractions. That track plays very differently not only because of Poly but with no banking to speak of on the turns. Casino Drive gets the benefit of running 9 Furlongs around one turn at Belmont if I am not mistaken. Last edited by Houndog; 06-06-2008 at 01:50 PM.

06-07-2008, 03:54 PM	#8
kiltman Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Southeast Arizona Posts: 126	Bb No juice in BB today nothing since april and vet has given him a clean bill of health and GO BB.

06-07-2008, 07:00 PM	#10
Charlie D Match Up Apprentice Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 2,105	I thought Big Brown would win and wanted BB to win Triple Crown, so only backed em to place Da'Tara was as high as 160 on Betfair to small money Attached Images __________________ "To me, The Match Up supercedes everything"

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06-05-2008, 05:57 PM	#1
froggy Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2007 Location: Bullhead City Az Posts: 921	Bel Stks Rdss vs Energy I used each of the horses best race as indicated by Perceptor and then with the Energy program did the eliminations. First the #4 and #7 as the two lowest total energy horses. Then those that didn't have any ones or twos on the sort screen. Of the remaining horses #9 looks like he may be too far out of it to get to the finish line first and his total energy is weak. The Variegate indicates early and I think this is suspect. If the race is run with a slow pace maybe the #5 can win. Looks like a two horse bet would be the #1 and #6. I think I'll just sit on my hands and watch them run. Attached Images

06-06-2008, 02:07 PM	#4
Tim Y turf historian Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 6,455	Yes take away that one Keeneland line and there is only one stone cold closer.

06-07-2008, 01:52 AM	#5
froggy Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2007 Location: Bullhead City Az Posts: 921	I've got it down to three I don't know if this is called a form of match-up but I have taken the horse that will pobably be leading at the 6f call and then looked for horses that can win in a race with that time. Here they are. Da' Tara looks like he will have the lead coming out of the turn so to speak and these two others can overtake and win with that pace and they are of course Big Brown and Denis Of Cork. Attached Images

06-07-2008, 09:34 AM	#6
Tim Y turf historian Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 6,455	Marion Jones, BALCO Poster child, Olympic champion or biochemical queen? Ben Johnson, Canadian sprint Gold Medalist or puffed up pseudo-champ? Barry "Clear, watch out for my increasing hat size, growth hormone" Bonds? Bjarne Riis , how about that EPO, Tour de France winner? Randy Orton, WWF star or biochemical Frankenstein? Have a familiar ring to it? Can't cut it? we have a short cut you!!! Not a purist, but disappointed and won't be pulling for the connections today.

06-07-2008, 06:56 PM	#9
stormbringer Grade 1 Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 426	Big Win For Froggy Thanks Froggy For The Winner Of The Belmont!!! I Loved It.